Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice

Early NFL Free Agent Signings and Impacts -- By Russ Bliss

Well, it certainly didn’t take the NFL Free Agency period long to get into gear, did it? In only a matter of a few days, most of the biggest names have gotten contracts and although there are still several waiting, especially at the QB position, it’s likely that it will only be another couple of days before most of the remaining big names are signed as well. And we, as fantasy football fanatics, always have interest in how the signing to a new team will impact these players.

Let’s go down the list of meaningful signings in the NFL free agent market to date and their impact for the 2006 Fantasy Football season. I am omitting all players (Shaun Alexander, Ahman Green, etc) who were re-signed by their team before the NFL free agency period officially began on March 10th:

Quarterbacks

As of Monday afternoon, March 13th, there has been no QB signings of any impact for fantasy football purposes. Speculation continues to surround Drew Brees signing with either the Saints or Dolphins. There’s also speculation about the Vikings desperately trying to trade Daunte Culpepper. Seemingly the only suitor now is the Dolphins, but who knows? The Oakland Raiders recently cleared up a lot of cap space and could find themselves back in the running. One of my favorite rumors involving Daunte was one having the Vikings trading Culpepper to the Rams for Marc Bulger and a mid-round pick. But that’s just unrealistic. I’m surprised Kerry Collins hasn’t garnered more immediate interest, but he’ll be somewhere soon. If the Culpepper deal falls through for Miami and Brees signs with the Saints, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dolphins go after Collins. There’s also Patrick Ramsey in Washington, but so far the offers for him haven’t been what the Redskins are looking for. But so far, the only movement on the Quarterbacks has been the Carolina Panthers re-signing backup Chris Weinke, the New York Giants re-signing backup Tim Hasselbeck, and the Houston Texans signing Sage Rosenfels as the top backup to David Carr.

Running Backs

1) Edgerrin James to the Arizona Cardinals: As I stated in a blog entry (Edgerrin James) it’s a great fit for both sides. It still is just a bit hard to believe. Possibly the biggest question for any player moving to a new team in all of free agency is how the move to Arizona will affect James and his status as a top 5 fantasy football running back? It’s been so long since the Cardinals had a running back fantasy football players could count on as even a decent #2 that it just doesn’t seem right to think they have a solid #1. The Cards get maligned for their offensive line, but it does bear noting that just two years ago, in his 15th, and last, season in the NFL, Emmitt Smith ran for 937 yards and 9 touchdowns behind a Cardinals offensive line considered to be worse than the one they currently have. If Emmitt, on the last leg of his hall of fame career can get that, don’t you think Edgerrin James, entering the 8th year of his career, would do better? And not just by a little, but a LOT better. I’m not saying James will definitely put up the same 1,500+ rushing yards he has for the Colts each of the past 2 seasons this year in Arizona. But certainly 1,300 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns aren’t out of the question. And if the Cardinals continue to address their offensive line in free agency and in the NFL Draft, James should still be a solid #1 fantasy football running back. Some will argue that the Cardinals are a pass happy team, but they were forced into being that more often than not because of the lack of a good running back. Even if the Cardinals are a pass happy team, they certainly cannot be any more pass happy than the Colts were in 2004 (when Peyton Manning threw for 49 touchdowns and James still had over 1,500 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns).

2) Jamal Lewis staying in Baltimore: It’s a little surprising that Lewis choose to stay in Baltimore after the Ravens signed Mike Anderson. Lewis was scheduled to meet with the Denver Broncos later on this week, but that won’t happen now. Lewis should certainly bounce back from a poor 2005 outing now that he’ll be able to fully participate in all off-season programs and training camp. I was projecting Lewis to step back into the ranks of being a solid fantasy football starting running back for 2006 and now that we know he’ll be back with the Ravens, I believe it even more firmly.

3) DeShaun Foster staying in Carolina: Foster signed a new 3 year deal to stay with the Panthers. While Foster has shown capabilities as a solid fantasy running back, his propensity for injury cannot be ignored. The Panthers are likely to make him their #1 guy, but don’t be surprised if Eric Shelton comes in and spells Foster a lot more than you’d expect for a running back getting Foster’s type of money. Shelton was the Panthers second round pick in the 2005 NFL Draft and missed all of the 2005 season while on injured reserve. Foster is a guy who, when healthy, is a solid fantasy RB #2, but because of the injuries he suffers every season, will likely be drafted more as a top fantasy #3.

4) Chester Taylor to the Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings immediately recognized that Taylor was a perfect fit for new head coach Brad Childress and his west coast style of offense. Taylor has good speed, catches the ball very well, and while unproven at handling the load, has shown capabilities as someone who can do it. Taylor reminds me a lot of Duce Staley when he was in the early stages of his career with the Philadelphia Eagles and should put up similar numbers. While not exactly big enough to be a goal line guy, Taylor is likely to make a good fantasy #3 running back in your typical performance style league.

5) Ron Dayne staying in Denver: Whether people want to admit it or not, Dayne just might be able to be an effective fantasy running back if he can handle as much of the load as the team gave Mike Anderson last year. While it’s still up in the air whether the Broncos will keep Tatum Bell, as of this moment, it looks like a repeat of last season where Anderson and Bell both got substantial time running the ball, only this year it will be Dayne and Bell. If Denver doesn’t move Bell, or doesn’t draft a RB, Dayne will be an adequate fantasy football #3 RB with the upside to be better. He’ll also have the downside of being the Ron Dayne we’ve seen the past several years who couldn’t quite cut it, too.

6) Mike Anderson to the Baltimore Ravens: When the Ravens signed Anderson, Chester Taylor had already signed with Minnesota and it was assumed they were preparing to let Jamal Lewis go to another team. Instead, the Ravens re-sign Lewis and now we have both Lewis, and Anderson as the top RB’s for Baltimore. Even if the Ravens hadn’t signed Lewis, it was still likely they would have drafted a RB to compete with Anderson, so it’s not like Anderson was going to be anything more than a #3/#4 fantasy football running back. But now that Lewis will be back, Anderson’s value takes a hit as Lewis is a proven feature RB and Anderson could find himself back in the role of being a fullback (like he was in Denver for a few years).

Wide Receivers

1) Koren Robinson staying in Minnesota: As a former early 1st round draft pick and a guy with a prior 1,000+ yard receiving season under his belt, Robinson should have commanded more than what he got from the Vikings. But since he has a history of off-field problems, he opted to not go visiting anyone and instead stay with the team who gave him a chance when few others would have. Staying within the Vikings system will give him a chance to go through a training camp with an offense he’s become familiar with and that’s a plus for his fantasy prospects in 2006. Robinson has the talent to be the Vikings #1 wide receiver; however, there are still some other talented guys to compete with. Right now, K-Rob can’t be considered a legitimate starting fantasy football WR, but he does make a good 3rd or 4th WR and has the upside to become one.

2) Brandon Lloyd traded to the Washington Redskins: Lloyd was a restricted free agent and while I thought it was doubtful he was going anywhere it doesn’t surprise me that the 49ers let him go for less than a 1st round pick. The 49ers received a 3rd round pick in the 2006 NFL Draft and a 4th round pick in 2007 for a player who, albeit talented, has caused some headaches in the locker room because of his attitude. The move to Washington is a great one for Lloyd as he’ll have Santana Moss opposite him and therefore won’t have to be fighting off double coverage from opponents. While being the number 2 in Washington isn’t likely to make Lloyd a solid starting fantasy football WR, it does mean that maybe he starts becoming a more legitimate bench fantasy WR. He certainly should do better than his 733 yard, 5 touchdowns performance from 2005.

3) Antonio Bryant to the San Francisco 49ers: After losing out on Joe Jurevicius to the Browns, the 49ers opted for the guy Jurevicius replaces in Cleveland. Bryant now replaces Brandon Lloyd as the 49ers top weapon at WR in 2006. Bryant has yet to reach the potential he has to become a solid, consistent NFL and fantasy football wide receiver, but he easily adds some much needed size to the 49ers at the position and is still developing. He eclipsed 1,000 yards in 2005 and although hard pressed to do that with the 49ers given their shaky quarterback situation, he just might be able to if he continues to develop his game. While not a guy I’d count on every week as a starting fantasy football wide receiver, I’d have no problems with Bryant as one of my top bench guys at the position. Best yet is that he’s likely to slip into the middle-to-late rounds of a fantasy draft so he’s likely to be a great bargain pick.

4) Joe Jurevicius to the Cleveland Browns: Jurevicius goes from being a spot starter and #3 WR for Seattle to being the unquestioned starting second WR for the Browns. And it’s possible that since Braylon Edwards won’t be ready for the start of the season, Jurevicius is their top guy for at least a while. The Browns, by letting Antonio Bryant go and signing Jurevicius have basically traded one big possession style WR for another. But while Bryant has a higher ceiling to take his game to a high level, Jurevicius is more technically sound in his skills, and much more mature in his attitude. While unlikely to be a 1,000 yd multiple touchdown guy in 2006 with Cleveland’s uncertain quarterback play, Jurevicius is another good bench fantasy football WR in 2006 who could surprise and be a decent spot starter.

5) Antwaan Randle El to the Washington Redskins: After getting Brandon Lloyd, it was a little surprising the Redskins also went after (and got) Randle El. But I assume that Joe Gibbs is trying to remake the “Posse” (Art Monk, Gary Clark, and Ricky Sanders from his prior stint in Washington) by adding both Lloyd and Randle El. They certainly represent a huge upgrade over the batch of WR’s the Redskins tried to use opposite Santana Moss in 2005. Randle El will compete with Lloyd for the #2 spot, but he’s better served as their #3 guy and will allow Washington to run some of those trick plays Gibbs likes to have in his arsenal. Randle El’s fantasy prospects are limited, but is still a guy worth having on your bench.

6) Andre Davis to the Buffalo Bills: As I wrote in the 2006 NFL Free Agent Wide Receivers article, Davis is a guy with talent, but has been hindered by injuries. It remains to be seen if the Bills will retain Eric Moulds, so a lot of Davis’s value for the 2006 fantasy football season is undetermined. If the Bills keep Moulds, then Davis steps in as the #3 WR and his value is severely limited. If the Bills cut Moulds loose, Davis probably steps in as a starter and could be a pleasant surprise. Davis has the playmaking ability to help out whichever guy between J.P. Losman and Kelly Holcomb wins the starting job, providing he stays healthy.

Tight Ends

1) Robert Royal to the Buffalo Bills: The Bills needed a better pass catching TE than any they had on their roster and got one in Royal. Royal didn’t have many opportunities to catch the ball during his time in Washington, but he proved to be reliable at it when they threw to him. However, as I stated in the 2006 NFL Free Agent Tight End article there’s no one expected in this position’s free agent class who will blow anyone away with top fantasy production. It’s a better situation for Royal, but not one that will put him into the class of must start fantasy TE’s.

2) Matt Schobel to the Philadelphia Eagles: While Schobel is supposed to have the skills to be a pass catcher; he never proved it while with the Cincinnati Bengals. Instead, the Bengals used a bunch of non-descript TE’s and spread the ball evenly amongst them (which is to say none of them were worth a drop of fantasy value). Schobel actually turned more into a blocking TE and with the Eagles already having a pass catching TE in L.J. Smith; it’s likely that Schobel’s fantasy value is severely limited again in 2006.

3) Christian Fauria to the Washington Redskins: Squeezed out by better, younger TE’s in New England, Fauria replaces Robert Royal in Washington. The Redskins use the H-Back position more than they do a true TE position (one of the reasons Royal never realized his potential there), so Fauria’s fantasy outlook for 2006 is meted with low expectations.

Kickers

1) Ryan Longwell to the Minnesota Vikings: In a blow to division rival Green Bay, Longwell not only leaves, but goes to the Vikings. He also will now get the benefit of kicking in a dome for at least 9 games every year, which will only help his fantasy production. Longwell was a top 10 fantasy kicker before this move and now might become a top 5 kicker in 2006.

2) Matt Bryant stays in Tampa Bay: The Bucs lost out on Ryan Longwell and decided to just re-sign Bryant, who was pretty good for them last year. His career average for kicking accuracy is 81% and while not stellar, is enough for him to have good fantasy numbers if the Bucs offense continues to improve.

Russ Bliss - fantasy football expert and radio host of "The Red Zone with Russ Bliss" on KDUS-AM - went head-to-head with the Line-Up Analyzer last year, and still wishes he had worn a helmet. Russ was so impressed with our predictive analysis engine, he joined the team at FantasyFootballStarters.com.

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