Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice

2006 NFL Free Agent Running Backs -- By Russ Bliss

There are some great running backs available in this years NFL free agent market. It's a great mix of a couple of top tier guys, with several guys a step below them, all of whom could get a chance to make either their existing NFL team, or a new team better.

1) Shaun Alexander (unrestricted, Seattle): The Seahawks really should have locked up Alexander last year, but they dropped the proverbial ball and as part of the one year deal they agreed to with Alexander, they can't put the franchise tag on him this season. Now that he's coming off his best season, and set a new NFL record for touchdowns in a season, Alexander is likely to cost even more. There are some who are concerned about his age (he'll be 29 when the regular season starts), but he's still going to get a big dollar contract from someone, and deservedly so. Personally, I just find it hard to believe the Seahawks will let Alexander get away. He fits their team and makes their passing game better just by being there. While he could go somewhere else, I expect Alexander to stay in Seattle.

2) Edgerrin James (unrestricted, Indianapolis): James is another top of the line NFL running back that fits his team to a tee. But unlike Alexander, James has had a history of being a little bit of a problem child, opting to not join his teammates for team organized workouts. Instead, James prefers working out on his own back in Florida each off-season. Despite that, James has shown he's truly a gifted running back having come back from a torn ACL suffered earlier in his career to reestablish himself as an elite NFL running back. The Colts probably can't fit him under the salary cap, but where there's a will in the NFL, there's a way and it's not inconceivable that despite all the posturing that James is back next year in Indy. The biggest obstacle to that is that James has publicly stated he'd like to move on several times the last couple of seasons. There are two teams that I think would fit James nicely: Jacksonville and Denver.

3) Jamal Lewis (unrestricted, Baltimore): Lewis had a miserable 2005 season, and it wasn't unexpected. Lewis had ankle surgery in January 2005 and then reported to prison to serve a 4 month sentence in early February. He was denied any special privilege of rehabbing the injury during his sentence and since he was also sentenced to stay in a half-way house in Atlanta for 2 months after getting out of prison in June, he didn't join his teammates until after training camp had opened. It wasn't a stretch for astute fantasy football players to recognize that when a guy is denied the regular recovery habits an NFL player usually is allowed coming off an injury and is forced to basically jump back in right away to playing games that he'll likely not be the player he should have been. Lewis is a top flight NFL running back and some smart team is going to get him at below his value because of his poor 2005 showing. The Ravens made a mistake not designating him their franchise player and while they would like him back, it's not a guarantee. No matter where he ends up, Lewis is one of my early picks for comeback player of the year in 2006. I will not be surprised at all if he ends up in Arizona.

4) Ahman Green (unrestricted, Green Bay): Green is a capable running back who has logged a lot of mileage in his 8 NFL seasons. A true workhorse for the Packers from 2000-2004, Green struggled with injuries in 2005 and eventually ruptured a quadriceps muscle which ended it prematurely. Green's game was one more of speed and it remains to be seen whether he'll still have that breakaway ability in 2006. While I think the Packers made a smart business move when they didn't sign him to a large dollar new contract, he was truly a guy who deserved one. It will be interesting to see if Green stays in Green Bay, or moves on somewhere else. In the right system, he could flourish. The best fit in my opinion would be Indianapolis.

5) Chester Taylor (unrestricted, Baltimore): After deciding to not use a tag on Jamal Lewis, it was kind of surprising the Ravens haven't tried harder to get a deal done with Taylor. A very capable running back that has excelled more often than not when given a chance, Taylor has a good combination of vision running with the ball, and excellent hands catching it. Taylor's not a big name guy, and he's unproven at being able to carry the load of a workhorse running back, but he's definitely a guy who will land somewhere and could compete for a starting job. And he won't break the bank for the team that signs him. For the purpose of pure speculation, he'd make the ideal backup to Corey Dillon in New England.

6) DeShaun Foster (Transition, Carolina): The Panthers slapped the transition tag on Foster meaning that he's guaranteed at least 5.13 million in 2006. They could still sign him to a long term contract, or let him go to another team if they decide not to match whatever he's offered. Foster is an explosive RB with big play potential, but has problems staying healthy. He broke an ankle in the playoffs and although expected to be fine by the time training camp rolls around, the durability questions surrounding him make it less likely that another team will swoop in and make a big money play for him. I expect he'll stay with the Panthers under the one year deal and if he stays healthy for 2006, the team will try to work out a long term deal with him.

7) Michael Bennett (unrestricted, Minnesota): While Bennett lacks the size to be a feature running back, his blazing speed and ability to catch the ball definitely makes him valuable to a team looking for a guy who can touch the ball a combined 15-20 each game. If he doesn't reunite with Dennis Green in Arizona, Bennett would make a great fit reuniting with another former coach: Scott Linehan in St. Louis and would take over the Marshall Faulk role behind Steven Jackson.

8) Maurice Morris (unrestricted, Seattle): For the past two seasons, the Seahawks have been talking up Maurice Morris as a guy they feel really just needs an opportunity to become a great NFL running back. We'll they're finally in a perfect position to get that chance if they let Shaun Alexander go, but they haven't done much in terms of re-signing Morris. While not a big RB, Morris has been impressive on the rare occasions he's gotten a chance to show what he can do. I'm not sold on him being able to be a feature RB, but he may be able to be the primary guy in a rotation. He reminds a lot of Dominic Rhodes in Indianapolis and would make a great fit there if the Colts go to that type of backfield.

9) Najeh Davenport (unrestricted, Green Bay): Davenport is a monster in terms of size and power, but has problems staying healthy. A broken ankle ended his 2005 campaign at a point where he was going to get a chance to showcase himself as the feature RB for the Packers. When he's been healthy, and gotten the chance to showcase himself, Davenport has been solid. But the questions of his durability will prevent him from getting a big contract with anyone. If he signs a one year deal somewhere and gets the chance to start and stays healthy, he could cash in 2007. As a complimentary running back, his size and skills would make him ideal in Cleveland, Houston, or Seattle (if Alexander doesn't re-sign).

10) Onterrio Smith (restricted?, Minnesota): It's been hard to find any exact designation on Smith as he was suspended the entire 2005 season for his 3rd violation of the league's substance abuse policy. Whether he would be a restricted free agent or not is immaterial as the Vikings will release him to unrestricted free agency if he gets reinstated by the league for 2006 (which itself is not a given). But I include him here because Smith has all the tools to be a feature running back in the NFL if he gets the chance and has truly cleaned up his act. The NFL is a forgiving place and it's likely that if Smith has stayed clean he'll be reinstated. Some team will take a chance on him because of his skills and while he could flop back into his old habits, he could also be a BIG surprise in 2006.

Some of the rest:

*-Lamar Gordon (unrestricted, Philadelphia): A good complimentary RB, but not a feature guy.

*-Anthony Thomas (unrestricted, New Orleans): former 1st round pick is surprisingly on nobody's wish list.

*-Ron Dayne (unrestricted, Denver): Broncos wan him back. He'll likely stay there as no one seems to want him.

*-Jeremi Johnson (restricted, Cincinnati): Johnson's a top flight FB who has more value to an NFL team than a fantasy football team. But he warrants mentioning as he has proven to be a bulldozer after catching the ball.

*-Musa Smith (restricted, Baltimore): He's not going anywhere as injuries and being behind Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor have prevented him from showing what he could do.

*-Tony Fisher (unrestricted, Green Bay): Fisher has skills, but for some unknown-to-me reason he just doesn't put it together on the playing field.

*-Jonathan Wells (unrestricted, Houston): Once upon a time I thought he could be the next Stephen Davis. Is a capable RB, but is a plodder.

*-Shawn Bryson (unrestricted, Detroit): Is a nice change of pace type of RB but offers little in terms of upside to be anything more.

*-Antowain Smith (unrestricted, New Orleans): Isn't as strong as you would expect from a big, slow RB.

*-Artose Pinner (restricted, Detroit): he's likely a backup for the Lions again.

*-Tony Richardson (unrestricted, Kansas City): Not much of a chance for an 11 year veteran FB.

*-Verron Haynes (unrestricted, Pittsburgh): Steelers like him, but not enough for him to have gotten any significant time.

*-Sammy Morris (unrestricted, Miami): Another in a long line of mediocre change of pace types of running backs.

There are plenty of other names, but realistically, I've gone way beyond the scope of likely contributors by naming as many as I have. Let's look at the individual NFL teams and how they fare at the position:

Arizona Cardinals: J.J. Arrington and Marcel Shipp are okay, but not likely to help the Cardinals find a running identity. Free agency is a prime place for the Cardinals to get better in a hurry at this position. They claim they won't be going after one of the premiere RB's available, but if they could get Jamal Lewis, they'd be foolish not to.

Atlanta Falcons: They're trying to restructure Warrick Dunn's contract so he doesn't cost as much against the cap in 2006, and I think they'll get it done. T.J. Duckett is rumored to be on the trading block and would be a great addition to another team as he's never fit into the offense the Falcons want to run. If they hit an impasse with Dunn, don't be surprised if Atlanta goes after one of the top 10 names on this list.

Baltimore Ravens: With Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor both unrestricted, the Ravens will either get one of them back, or go after one of the bigger names. If they fail to get one quickly in free agency, they'll likely use their first round draft pick to snag a RB and then sign one of the lesser free agents to compete with Musa Smith.

Buffalo Bills: The inefficiency of the passing game had more to do with the struggles Willis McGahee had than anything else. McGahee is a top flight NFL running back and the Bills already have some decent depth behind him.

Carolina Panthers: Having placed the transition tag on DeShaun Foster, the Panthers aren't nearly as likely to go after a big name free agent running back as they could have been. They're likely to cut loose Stephen Davis and gain some cap room. Nick Goings and last year's second round pick, Eric Shelton, are also there. I was very high on Shelton going into last year, but he got injured and was placed on IR before the season began. While on paper it appears very unlikely the Panthers are going to look to free agency for a RB, rumors swirl and they could easily become a surprise player in the free agent running back market.

Chicago Bears: Thomas Jones is still under contract at a bargain rate considering what he's done for them, and then there's last year's first round pick Cedric Benson. The Bears aren't interested in any free agent RB's.

Cincinnati Bengals: With Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry, running back is hardly their priority.

Cleveland Browns: The Browns are working on a new contract for Reuben Droughns. While it appears as if he is their guy, the Browns have the cap space to be a player in the free agent RB market if they decide they like someone better. Rumor is they're trying to move both oft-injured Lee Suggs and disappointing William Green, meaning there would be a need for a quality backup if they retain Droughns past 2006. If they get a deal with Droughns done, look for them to get a big, strong RB to complement Droughns. If they feel he's pricing himself too high, they'll just become a player for one of the elite free agent RB's.

Dallas Cowboys: While Julius Jones and Marion Barber have both shown flashes of greatness, neither looks like the type of workhorse RB Bill Parcells has favored on teams he's coached in the past. Despite having more pressing needs than RB, when you've got pockets like Jerry Jones, nothing is out of the question. And while it's very unlikely the Cowboys will make any move at RB in free agency, tell me that if you picture Edgerrin James in a Cowboys uniform just once that the image doesn't look like an all too real possibility.

Denver Broncos: A team that nearly put two 1,000 yard running backs on the field in 2005, it's been rumored they're looking to land a big one in free agency. Mike Anderson, while doing a solid job in 2005, is getting up there in years and is on the last year of his contract. Tatum Bell has shown great abilities, but doesn't appear to be a guy who can be effective carrying the ball 20+ times game in and game out. There have been reports that they are shopping Tatum Bell for draft picks and could either be eyeing someone in the draft or looking to get a top free agent RB who can handle the load. For what it's worth, the Broncos are my top realistic (unlike the Cowboys) dark horse candidate to land Edgerrin James.

Detroit Lions: Kevin Jones struggled in 2005, but to be fair, the entire Lions offense struggled. Running backs have had great success in Mike Martz's offense in the past, although they rarely get 20 or more carries on a regular basis. Martz came in as the new offensive coordinator and stated he saw Jones as a guy who could touch the ball 30 times each game. Unless 12 of them are going to be receptions, I don't see it and chalk up Martz's remark as mere coach-speak nonsense. But the fact does remain that the Lions have Jones, and therefore are likely to only be looking for a change of pace style running back in free agency.

Green Bay Packers: Ahman Green, Najeh Davenport, and Tony Fisher are all unrestricted free agents. It's conceivable the Packers could re-sign all 3, but not likely. And there's also Samkon Gado. But whether the team would feel comfortable going into the 2006 season with Gado as their feature guy is questionable. The team is trying to bring back Green, and if they do, it's unlikely they make any other significant free agent move at running back. If they don't get Green re-signed, at the very least they'll bring in someone to compete with Gado.

Houston Texans: When healthy, Domanick Davis is a top caliber NFL running back. But he's always come with that caveat "when healthy", and therefore it's likely the Texans are looking to get at the very least a good backup to compliment Davis. With the first pick in the NFL draft, it's assumed the Texans will take Reggie Bush, but rumors are that the team is shopping that pick and may be looking to shoring up their porous offensive line instead. Either way, unless the recent silence of the trade rumors involving Davis and the Minnesota Vikings resurface, it's looking like Davis is entrenched as the starter and the Texans will only be looking to add a capable backup.

Indianapolis Colts: It all depends on what happens with Edgerrin James. If the Colts somehow re-sign him, then the Colts are set at RB with him and Dominic Rhodes. If they don't re-sign James, then it's likely they'll go after a running back in free agency who either can split the load with Rhodes, as Rhodes isn't seen as a feature running back, or a guy who will put aside the desire for a lot of money for the desire to be on a championship level team. Personally, I think Ahman Green would be a great fit for the Colts as he likely wouldn't command top dollar, is at a point in his career where splitting some time with a complimentary running back like Rhodes would be ideal for extending his career, and provide a proven excellent pass catching RB.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Fred Taylor just can't stay healthy and although they may bring him back, they'd let him go if they could get someone like Jamal Lewis for a reasonable price. Greg Jones showed well filling in for Taylor and while he lacks the complete game to be a feature RB, he certainly gives them a steady presence if they don't get someone else in there. My guess is that they'll aim for one of the top guys, and if they don't get one, they'll sign one of the complimentary free agent running backs available to give them someone else besides Jones to provide insurance for Taylor.

Kansas City Chiefs: Did anyone know that Dee Brown was the top backup to Larry Johnson at the end of 2005? Very few did as there was no need to. Johnson is now the man, and the only question is whether the Chiefs will have Priest Holmes as his backup in 2006. If Holmes back injury is okay for him to continue playing in the NFL, then he'll be back and the Chiefs have no need to make a whimper on the free agent running backs scale. If Holmes isn't able to continue playing, then they probably go get themselves a versatile backup.

Miami Dolphins: Regardless of what the final outcome is in the latest Ricky Williams failed drug test saga, the Dolphins have their starter in Ronnie Brown. About all they need is a capable backup and even if somehow Ricky beats the rap, they're still likely to try and get someone in there as insurance.

Minnesota Vikings: Michael Bennett, Onterrio Smith, and Moe Williams are all expected to be gone, leaving Mewelde Moore, Ciatrick Fason, and Adimchinobe Echemandu as the running backs left on the roster. Moore has been productive but has durability issues, Fason is an unknown quantity, and (Obi Wan) 'Chinobe is just a name that's fun to play with. New head coach Brad Childress is expected to make a play in free agency for a running back and the only question is whether the Vikings will pony up some top dollars for one, or will they go the Eagles (where Childress comes from) route of getting a couple of guys who can rotate within the system. If they go for the big name, Shaun Alexander would look great in a Vikings uniform. If they go the other way, Alexander's backup in Seattle, Maurice Morris, seems to be a good fit

New England Patriots: With Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk there, you wouldn't expect the Patriots to be looking, but I just can't shake the feeling that with Dillon 30 years old, and coming off a season where he battled injuries, this team wouldn't be interested in a quality backup with versatile skills. Two guys who come to mind immediately are Chester Taylor (if they're looking for a steak) and Lamar Gordon (if they only want to afford a burger).

New Orleans Saints: Deuce McAllister is expected to be fully recovered by the start of the season from the torn ACL injury he suffered back in October, and therefore the Saints aren't looking for anything more than a better backup to pair with Aaron Stecker than last year's sloth-like Antowain Smith. If new head coach Sean Payton liked him in Dallas, it wouldn't be too big a surprise to see Anthony Thomas be this year's veteran minimum signee.

New York Giants: Between Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs, the Giants are set at running back and will be a non-factor in free agency at the position.

New York Jets: Curtis Martin recently took a nearly 4 million dollar reduction in salary to stay with the Jets. Cedric Houston performed okay last year, and the return of a healthy Derrick Blaylock means the salary cap challenged Jets won't be spending any money at this position in free agency.

Oakland Raiders: Lamont Jordan had a very solid first season with the Raiders and should have no concerns about his status as their feature guy. But after him there's little of note. A good backup will either be addressed in free agency or the draft.

Philadelphia Eagles: The healthy return of Brian Westbrook gives the Eagles a solid starter to pair with Ryan Moats. Correll Buckhalter is still under contract for another season, but after two devastating knee injuries it remains to be seen if he'll be back. The Eagles may pursue a bigger free agent running back to be more of a short yardage guy, but that's about it.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The torch officially passed from Jerome Bettis to Willie Parker when Parker ripped off that 75 yard touchdown run in the Super Bowl. But Parker isn't the prototypical bruising type of running back the Steelers are traditional more known for so they might bring one in to be a compliment to Parker's blazing speed. Duce Staley could also be back, and that means that there would only be a need for a short yardage guy.

San Diego Chargers: LaDainaian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, and Darren Sproles are all under contract. Do I need to say anything more?

San Francisco 49ers: While Kevan Barlow has many questioning whether he's everything he was hyped to be after a second consecutive disappointing season, having him along with Frank Gore (whom I very high on as a sleeper fantasy RB in 2006) and Maurice Hicks makes the running back position one of the few areas the 49ers don't need to address in free agency.

Seattle Seahawks: If they'd only been smart and signed Shaun Alexander to a multi-year deal last off-season they wouldn't be in the predicament they are now. Alexander's an unrestricted free agent; his backup, Maurice Morris, is an unrestricted free agent, and the Seahawks have 3 options. Option 1 is to sign Alexander, let Morris go, and get a backup to their stud. Option 2 is to let Alexander go, re-sign Morris, and get someone in to push Morris so he doesn't get complacent about being handed the starting job. Option 3 is to let both go and bring someone else in who can defenses honest so they don't just focus on teeing off on Matt Hasselbeck. If they go with option 3, they'd better get a really good free agent running back. Personally, I think the Seahawks will get something worked out with Alexander.

St. Louis Rams: Steven Jackson is their guy now and the only question is whether Marshall Faulk has enough left to return for another season of spot duty. New head coach Scott Linehan has said he wants Faulk back, but if Faulk decides to retire, then don't be surprised if Linehan brings in another running back with good speed and overall game to be a change of pace to Jackson. As I mentioned in his write-up, Michael Bennett makes a lot of sense here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They've got a special talent in Carnell Williams, and unless they're going to let Michael Pittman go, they have a very capable backup. They're trying to bring back Mike Alstott to be their short yardage big guy, so unless they fail to do that, they have no needs at running back.

Tennessee Titans: With both Chris Brown and Travis Henry under contract, it's doubtful the salary cap strapped Titans will make any noise in the free agent running back market.

Washington Redskins: Clinton Portis continues to demonstrate he's an elite NFL running back, and the Redskins have excellent depth with Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright, and Manuel White (who was on IR all of last season) on the roster. The team might sign another RB to compete for a backup spot, but it won't be anything that makes a splash.

See Russ's other 2006 fantasy football picks:

• 2006 Free Agent Quarterbacks
• 2006 Free Agent Wide Receivers
• 2006 Free Agent Tight Ends and Kickers

Russ Bliss - fantasy football expert and radio host of "The Red Zone with Russ Bliss" on KDUS-AM - went head-to-head with the Line-Up Analyzer last year, and still wishes he had worn a helmet. Russ was so impressed with our predictive analysis engine, he joined the team at FantasyFootballStarters.com.

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