Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice from the Experts

Draft Strategies and Tactics -- By Russ Bliss

Every year there is continuing debate over what are the best fantasy football draft strategies and tactics. Some are more popular than others, but each has its own strengths and weaknesses. In this article, I’m going to go over a couple of strategies and tactics you can use for your fantasy draft. Some you’re familiar with, and some you may not be.

Before we get started, there is one prevailing theme though that crosses every different fantasy football strategy, and that’s the creation of lists at each position. These lists are commonly referred to as “cheat sheets” and they are a valuable tool for executing a successful draft no matter the strategy or tactics you use. Creating them is easy. You simply rank the players at each position and follow the rankings when drafting, crossing out the names of players as they get chosen. These lists will make sure you never forget about a player when it comes your turn to throw a name out. One very helpful thing to do when you create your cheat sheets is to make sure you’ve noted the bye week for each player next to his name. If you do this, you cut down on the chance you accidentally draft backups who share the same bye week as your starters.

In order to create cheat sheets, you must understand your leagues scoring system. Some leagues use a combination of yardage and touchdowns. Others are just touchdowns. Some leagues give players bonus points for each reception, some don’t. Quarterbacks can be rewarded with 3, 4, or 6 pts for a touchdown pass. Kickers might get bonuses for the length of their field goals. Defenses may either be rewarded or penalized based on the yardage they allow, or the points they allow. If you play in multiple leagues, with different scoring systems, it’s possible that the cheat sheets for one league will look different from the cheat sheets of another.

Draft Strategy #1: Tiering

Tiering is a solid fantasy football draft strategy that dictates there are groups of players at each position who will all likely finish the regular season with about the same amount of fantasy points. For example, you think there are 3 RBs (let’s say LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, and Shaun Alexander) who are clearly at the top of the class. You’ve decided that each of them stands a good chance of being the number 1 fantasy RB and that each will likely finish very close to others in the amount of points they’ll score for the year. You would tier these 3 RBs together on your RB cheat sheet thusly:

Tier 1
LaDainian Tomlinson
Priest Holmes
Shaun Alexander

You would then create the next tier using the names of the RBs you feel are just behind the first tier. You keep doing that until you’ve exhausted all the names on your RB cheat sheet. Then you do it at every other position.

Tiers are used the same way cheat sheets are used. You take them to your draft and cross off or highlight the names as they get picked. The object of tiering positions is to make sure you take players from the highest tier that still has names in it at that position. For example, it’s round 4 of the draft and it’s your pick. You’ve decided you want to take a WR. Looking at the tier chart, you notice that one player from tier #4 has been taken, but there are still 2 guys left in tier #3 at the position (and none in tiers 1 and 2). You would take one of the guys from tier #3. Which one is totally up to you. When choosing from multiple players in a tier group take other factors into consideration. What about bye weeks? Are you taking a WR from the same team as your starting QB or one of your starting RBs? Who has the more favorable schedule the weeks of your league’s playoffs? When you’ve answered those questions, you should have a clear idea of which one of the two players to select. Even if the name is listed lower in that tier, you’ve still projected that you’ll get about the same amount of points from either one so where a name is in a tier doesn’t matter.

Tier groups at each position do not correspond to tier groups from other positions. There is no definitive point where the top tier of one position becomes more valuable than a lower tier at another position. The tiers for each position are independent from each other. It is up to you to decide whether the second tier of fantasy football QBs is more important than the fourth tier of RBs, or the third tier of WRs.

It is important to recognize when a tier group is about to “close” (when all the names in that group are going to be crossed off). For example, you’re in a 12 team league and drafting 10th in the 5th round of a serpentine style draft. You know that there will be 4 picks after yours before you pick again. You still need your starting QB, but could also use a decent 3rd RB. You look at your tiers for those two positions and notice that in tier group #3 for QBs, there are still two names left in it. On the RB list, there are 2 names left in tier group #4. One of the teams picking after you already has his starting QB. It’s a safe bet that he isn’t going to take a backup QB with his picks this early. That means only one QB is likely to be selected, and therefore you’re still going to be able to get one of the two left in QB tier #3 with your next pick. You should take one of the 2 RBs from tier group #4 in round 5.

The essence of Tiering is that the names of the players are insignificant. It is the point production of the tier group that matters. And therefore you’re always trying to get players from the highest tier groups at the various positions.

There are no limits to how many names (or how few) can be in a tier at any position. You can have a tier with only one name it, or you can 20 names in it. Just be realistic when creating them. If historically, there are 6-8 WRs who score about 100 points in your league, you’ll only want 6-8 names in that tier. Putting 12 names in there will lead to mistakes. Usually, there are fewer names in the higher tiers than at the lower tiers. This is reflective of the fact there are only so many players who score a lot of fantasy points, but a bunch of players who finish with mediocre fantasy points.

One of the strengths about Tiering is that it can be used in conjunction with many draft tactics. You can use tiers to execute a RB Heavy draft tactic. You can use tiers to execute the Stud WR draft tactic. And while Tiering doesn’t necessarily mesh with Value Based Drafting (VBD), the tiers you’ve created can be based on the root principal of VBD, which is Average Value Theory (AVT). A big plus is that tier lists are fairly easy to create. The weakness of Tiering is that despite calculating that you’re getting about the same amount of points from players in a tier, that little anticipated point differential can be the difference in winning and losing a close game during the season. After all, who hasn’t lost a game by a single point?

[NOTE: Russ’s popular Tier Rankings for each position are available for paid subscribers only.] Proceed to the Tier Rankings.

Draft Strategy #2: Value Based Drafting

VBD is a draft strategy that uses a point system designed to ensure you always are taking the player with the most value every round. Sounds reasonable enough, right? VBD point assignments are usually arrived at by using a method known as Average Value Theory (AVT).

In AVT, every position has an assigned point value to every rank within it. These assigned point totals are derived from the average total points scored by the player who finished in that ranking spot over the past three years. For example, let’s say last year the top scoring QB using your leagues scoring system (the name of the QB does NOT matter for figuring in the averages) produced 472 fantasy points. The year before, the top scoring QB (again, the name doesn’t matter, it’s the point total that matters, and it’s likely it wasn’t the same QB) produced 439 fantasy points. The year before that, the top scoring QB produced 463 points. You simply add up the three totals (472+439+463= 1374) and then divide by three (there are other variations of percentages you can use but for this example, I’m keeping it simple). This yields an “average” number (458) of fantasy points scored by the top QB and it’s what you can roughly expect from the top scoring QB again for the upcoming season. You do this for all players at every position. This is a very time-consuming process the first time you do it. But it gets easier in subsequent years as you already have 2 of the 3 year’s numbers figured out.

After you have achieved the AVT numbers for all ranks within a position, you then set up a “benchmark” number at each of the positions. This is usually derived by taking the amount of teams in your league and multiplying that number by the number of players at each position you’re required to start every week, but there can be variations. For simplicity sake, we’ll stick with the basic Teams x Starters formula.

For example, you play in a 12 team league, and you’re required to start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 Defense/Special Teams. You would multiply each positions number of starters by 12 to achieve where to set the benchmark. At QB, it would be at the QB ranked 12th. At RB, it would be the RB ranked 24th, at WR 36th, etc. You then take that rank’s AVT number and subtract it from every other rank’s AVT #. If the QB ranked 12th has an AVT number of 298. You subtract 298 from all other QBs to attain a VBD number. That 12th ranked QB will have a VBD number of 0 (as 298-298= 0). A top ranked QB with an AVT number of 458 would have a VBD number of 160 (458-298= 160). QBs ranked 13th and lower will have negative VBD numbers.

After you’ve done that at every position, you then assign your rankings of players to each rank at that position. Let’s say you rank the QBs Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, and Michael Vick (in that order) 1-5. Manning would have a VBD # of 160, Culpepper would have (and I’m just pulling numbers out of hat here) 157, McNabb 142, Favre 136, and Vick 129. You do that for all players, and eventually you’ll have VBD cheat sheets for your draft. By having figured out the VBD numbers, you then use these sheets to make sure you’re acquiring the best value player with every draft pick.

There are various theories of how to use VBD. You can go strictly by the point totals regardless of position, thusly always acquiring the most total points. This is usually done by creating a Top 100 list of players ranked by their VBD number. Some people will draft the highest ranked player from such a Top 100 list in each round regardless of position or team needs. The downfall of that is that you might be acquiring an exceptionally strong overall team with a great bench, but because you took two higher ranked QBs early, you possibly skipped over a better starter at another position than the one you drafted later. You can also execute the Starters First theory of drafting by using VBD to fill out your starting roster before drafting any backups. You can use a modified version of Starters First by including the drafting of one backup RB and WR before going strictly by the VBD numbers the rest of the way. This prevents you from blindly following the Starter’s First theory at the sacrifice of at least one quality bench player at those two positions.

Another version of VBD is to do more than just getting the highest point total regardless of position. In this version you cross compare positions to determine where the better value is at when it’s your turn to draft. For example, let’s say it’s round 5 and you’ve got the 10th pick in that 12 team league we used as an example earlier. You’ve already drafted 2 RBs, and 2 WRs. You’re thinking about either your third starting WR or your starting QB. You look at your VBD sheets and see that the highest rated QB has a VBD # of 88. Your highest rated WR has a VBD # of 99. One of the team’s picking after you has yet to take a QB either so you can assume he might pull the trigger on one. The most WRs that will get drafted is 4, but you’re assuming that probably no more than three will be taken before you pick again the next round. You consult your VBD cheat sheet and see that the next highest rated QB on your list after the guy with a VBD # of 88 has a VBD # of 79 (a difference of 9 points). The next 3 highest rated WRs after the guy with 99 have VBD #’s of 98, 96, and 93 (a difference of 6 points from highest to lowest). Value Based Drafting dictates that the QB is the one to draft as the drop-off between him and the next guy at the position is greater than the drop-off between the WRs. Your worst case scenario by taking the QB in round 5 is VBD #’s of 88 and 93 (a total of 181 fantasy points). If you take the WR in round 5, and then your QB with a VBD # of 88 gets selected before you pick again, you’re best case scenario is VBD #’s of 99 and 79 (a total of 178 fantasy points).

It takes a lot of work to create VBD lists. And in the last example of using it you have to be sharp on your math so you can quickly analyze each pick and where the value lies before your next pick. If you play in multiple leagues with different scoring systems, you will have to calculate AVTs differently and set up separate VBD cheat sheets for each league.

The strength of VBD is that it’s based on historical point totals and is therefore very accurate at predicting the amount of fantasy points each rank within a position will score. The weaknesses lie within the different ways VBD usually get misused (as pointed out in the “Top 100” scenario or adhering to a strict “Starter’s First” mentality), and it also dictates that you MUST be correct in where you rank the players. Since the essence of VBD is to draft the most points, and at the right time, if your rankings are off, you not only missed out on the true value in a round, but probably a player at a different position who would have been a better value pick, thusly causing a domino effect throughout your draft.

Draft Tactic #1: RBs, Early and Often

Possibly the most popular draft tactic today is to draft RBs in at least 2 of the first 3 rounds, and sometimes 3 of the first 4. The reason for this is that most every league requires each team to start at least 2 RBs, with options for more. Since there are 32 teams, and usually only one starting RB (FBs don’t get counted as they usually make little impact in fantasy football) for each team, this leaves a small talent pool of quality players at this position. Making the position more valuable early is the fact that some team employ a Running Back By Committee (RBBC as it’s commonly referred to) strategy, meaning that there are 2 RBs or more on that team that share the majority of the carries and therefore their production individually isn’t as valuable for fantasy football as full time RBs. RB is also the most volatile position for fantasy football as injuries to them appear to happen more frequently then at the other positions.

All of these things make the RB position the top priority of many fantasy players. They’ll pass on the top QBs or WRs figuring the drop-off between the top ones and the next level at those positions is greater than the drop-off at RB. There are fewer starting QBs required in most leagues as opposed to RBs, so the position doesn’t dry up nearly as quick. There are 2 starting WRs on every NFL and therefore there are always decent WR choices even into the later parts of every draft.

The strength of going with RBs early and often is that you ensure getting two projected solid starters at a position devoid of great depth. Also, by focusing on getting quality backups while others are snatching up QBs and WRs you are covered in case of injury. You also have trade bait to dangle to other owners who are either weak at the RB position or have suffered an injury to the position themselves.

The weakness of going with RBs early is that you might be passing up stud players at other positions just to ensure getting RBs. For example, last year Curtis Martin had a tremendous fantasy season, but was often available in most fantasy drafts in rounds 3 or 4 because it was expected his skills were in decline after two years with poor touchdown totals. Plus, there was Lamont Jordan who also was expected to get more carries. An owner could have chosen RB in round 1, a stud WR in round 2, and then Martin in round 3, and found himself set up nicely last year. Or a stud QB in round 2 (which was where the stud QBs were going on average last year; don’t expect them to last past round 1 this year). By going with RBs in the first 2 rounds, you ensure that you will not get Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, or Terrell Owens. Plus it’s unlikely you get Donovan McNabb, Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, or Marvin Harrison either. If you draft RBs in the first 3 rounds, you probably say goodbye to any chance of getting Trent Green, Joe Horn, Tony Gonzalez, Javon Walker (although if he holds out of training camp his stock could start dropping), Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and quite possibly even Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. That’s the risk of going all out on RBs early.

Draft Tactic #2: The Stud WR Theory

This is an interesting tactic that is usually only employed by those who are picking at the end of the first round of a fantasy draft. It dictates that when you pick at or near the end of the first round of a serpentine style draft instead of picking from the second or third tier of RBs when it gets to you, you instead take the top WRs with both your first and second round pick. Imagine having snagged Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens in the first two rounds last year (a combined 2,313 yards and 29 TDs), and then gone after RBs in rounds 3 and 4 and gotten Curtis Martin and Warrick Dunn (3,342 yards and 23 TDs). That would have been a solid (and not unrealistic) first 4 rounds last year.

Every year, there are RBs who do not perform up to expectations but are drafted very high, while there are RBs drafted after the first two rounds who put up solid fantasy numbers. At WR though, the top guys are usually very consistent in their top production from year to year. The Stud WR theory says you don’t leave the sure things at WR on the board to take chances on RBs just because you’re afraid there won’t be any good RBs left by the time your picks in rounds 3 and 4 come around. The RBs left to you in those rounds may not be the sexy names people love to have on their roster, but they could be the surprise picks who, when teamed with your top WR duo, give you a championship team.

The Stud WR Theory dictates that you won’t be drafting a QB until round 5 at the earliest because it is necessary that you draft two RBs back to back in rounds 3 and 4. Unless you only have to start 1 RB in your league, it is way too risky to wait until your pick in round 5 comes back to you to wait on your second RB. But since the drop-off at the QB position historically (until last year at least) isn’t that great between the top 2 and the rest of the top 10, you can usually afford to make this wait.

The strength of the Stud WR Theory is that it bucks conventional draft tactics and could even put a run at the position earlier than usual, thusly leaving you even better RB options in rounds 3 and 4. But its weakness is obvious: suspect RBs and no chance of a stud QB.

These are just a few of the different ideas people can go into their draft with and while there are positives and negatives to each, a championship has been won by employing each of these various strategies and tactics. Which one works best for you is for you to decide.

Russ Bliss — fantasy football expert and radio host of "The Red Zone with Russ Bliss" on KDUS-AM — went head-to-head with the Line-Up Analyzer last year, and still wishes he had worn a helmet. Russ was so impressed with our predictive analysis engine, he joined the team at FantasyFootballStarters.com. For other "Word to the Winners" articles, please visit our fantasy football advice homepage.

Copyright © 2005 Ready-Set-Go Fantasy Sports, LLC. All rights reserved.