Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice from the Experts

Following is some hot-off-the-press advice on this season's rookie running backs from Russ Bliss, fantasy football expert who hosts "The Red Zone" on KDUS-AM Sports radio.

Running Backs

Since RB is the hardest position to effectively find quality depth at for fantasy purposes, it's good to finally see a solid rookie crop of RBs. It's not usual for rookie RBs to be elite fantasy guys their rookie season, but there have been exceptions and from this crop, there's 2 potential top 10 fantasy RBs for the 2005 season. There are at least another 3 who should provide decent or better value. And as many as 11 more who could have value down the line in future years (or even this year if things break right for them). I've also included the FB's who were drafted in this report.

2005 rank

1. Ronnie Brown
2. Cedric Benson
3. J.J. Arrington
4. Carnell Williams
5. Eric Shelton
6. Brandon Jacobs
7. Ryan Moats
8. Frank Gore
9. Vernand Morency
10. Damien Nash
11. Ciatrick Fason
12. Marion Barber
13. Cedric Houston
14. Maurice Clarett
15. Darren Sproles
16. Manuel White
17. Alvin Pearman
18. Anthony Davis
19. Deandra Cobb
20. Lionel Gates
21. Noah Herron
22. Justin Green
23. Nehemiah Broughton
24. Rick Razzano

Dynasty/Keeper League Value:

1. Ronnie Brown
2. Cedric Benson
3. Carnell Williams
4. Eric Shelton
5. J.J. Arrington
6. Ciatrick Fason
7. Cedric Houston
8. Vernand Morency
9. Brandon Jacobs
10. Damien Nash
11. Frank Gore
12. Ryan Moats
13. Marion Barber
14. Anthony Davis
15. Manuel White
16. Maurice Clarett
17. Darren Sproles
18. Alvin Pearman
19. Lionel Gates
20. Deandra Cobb
21. Noah Herron
22. Justin Green
23. Nehemiah Broughton
24. Rick Razzano

Commentaries. All players are listed by the round they were drafted in.

Ronnie Brown, Round 1, Miami Dolphins: Brown catapulted his stock by running a 4.46 at the combine. There was already talk of his being a better NFL RB than teammate Carnell Williams at Auburn before that and that 40 time solidified it. A complete back with size (6'0" 233) speed, good vision and superior pass catching abilities, Brown is a sure impact RB who will step in as the starter in Miami.
2005 outlook: Sammy Morris, Lamar Gordon, Travis Minor? None are anywhere near the talent Brown is. If Miami's OL can open some holes (not a sure thing) Brown will be solid. At the very least his pass catching abilities will benefit him greatly as the Dolphins struggle to find a competent QB who gets the ball to the WRs. A borderline #2/#3 fantasy RB with the upside to be a #1.
Beyond 2005: Brown could be a top 10 fantasy RB for years to come if the Dolphins get their OL and QB situation solidified.

Cedric Benson, Round 1, Chicago Bears: Benson has carried the load in college for Texas with 4 consecutive 1,000+ yard seasons. The Bears wanted a RB who would fit their new power running offensive scheme and Benson is tailor made for it. Not known as a great pass catcher, Benson is a strong runner who drives a pile.
2005 outlook: Could end up splitting some of the RB duties with Thomas Jones, but has the better size and makeup for the type of rushing attack the Bears want to exhibit. Likely to be the primary RB with Jones as the 3rd down/change of pace RB.
Beyond 2005: Jones probably won't like the reassignment to being a backup and could be gone after this season, leaving Benson as the feature RB. It will especially help if Benson starts catching the ball with confidence as a rookie. Benson will be a solid starting #2 fantasy RB with the chance to be a #1 for many years.

Carnell Williams, Round 1, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Williams reminds me a lot of Charlie Garner: a guy you don't think of as being a feature RB, but in the right system, can be. Jon Gruden made Garner a great fantasy weapon in Oakland and now will do the same with Williams in Tampa Bay. Williams has more size than most think (5'11", 217 lbs) and despite the presence of Ronnie Brown at Auburn, was still the starting RB in college over Brown. Tampa Bay wants to run the ball more effectively and Williams has a great chance to be the guy doing it.
2005 outlook: The Bucs still have Michael Pittman (who had a solid season in '04) and Charlie Garner, but neither is as dynamic as Williams. Pittman's a sturdy RB, and Garner's best days are behind him. Williams will compete for the starting job, and likely win it. He's a borderline #2/#3 fantasy RB because of Pittman and Gruden's history of using multiple RBs in his offenses.
Beyond 2005: A lot depends on whether Gruden will change his multiple RB style if Williams shows he can be the feature guy. At the very least Williams projects to be the most productive fantasy RB in Tampa and likely a good #2 in most leagues.

Eric Shelton, Round 2, Carolina Panthers: This is a perfect fit for Shelton as the Panthers are a power running team and Shelton is a big back (6'1", 246 lbs) with good speed (4.56 in the 40). Shelton actually reminds me a lot of Stephen Davis in how powerful he is and is a natural to replace Davis in the offense since Davis is questionable to be ready for the start of the '05 season. Shelton is a between the tackles runner who scored 20 TD's last year in college. Not a receiver out of the backfield at all (another thing that reminds me of Davis).
2005 outlook: Injuries to Davis and DeShaun Foster forced the Panthers to use Nick Goings as their feature RB most of the season, and despite a good showing, they clearly do not deem Goings to be their long term solution. Davis is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season, Foster has ended two of the past 3 years on injured reserve, and Goings isn't the RB of the future. Shelton might not be a full time RB to start this season, but he's probably the smartest choice to be the best fantasy producing RB for the Panthers.
Beyond 2005: Shelton is the future unless the Panthers change coaching staffs and go to a different offensive system. Likely to become a solid #2 fantasy RB in coming years.

J.J. Arrington, Round 2, Arizona Cardinals: Led all college RBs with 2,018 rushing yards in 2004. Arrington brings an element of speed (consistent high 4.3's/ low 4.4's in the 40) the Cardinals lack at the RB position. Not very big (5'8", 214 lbs), but a guy who makes things happen with his speed and elusiveness.
2005 outlook: Will compete with Marcel Shipp for the starting job in Arizona and could very well win it. Dennis Green has had success with smaller speed RBs in the past (Robert Smith and Michael Bennett come to mind immediately) and likely will give Arrington every chance to be the primary RB with Shipp and Troy Hambrick being change of pace/short yardage guys. Arrington is a likely a solid #3 fantasy RB in '05.
Beyond 2005: Arrington just doesn't have the look or feel to be a feature RB. An explosive contributor, but I think the Cardinals will go with a platoon system similar to what Green had with Robert Smith and Moe Williams in Minnesota several years back. Meaning Arrington is a good #2/#3 fantasy RB in the future.

Vernand Morency, Round 3, Houston Texans: Similar in stature to Arrington (5'9", 212 lbs), Morency lacks Arrington's explosive speed (4.65 in the 40). That said, he plays faster than his time indicates and is a powerful RB despite his size.
2005 outlook: Morency is a lot like current Texans RB Domanick Davis. Doubtful he supplants Davis as the teams starting RB, but his drafting could mean that the oft-injured Davis will be spelled more often than he was before. He'll compete for time in a platoon system with Tony Hollings and Jonathan Wells as the primary backup to Davis. If he wins the battle as top backup, he becomes a solid handcuff consideration for anyone who drafts Davis.
Beyond 2005: There's a lot to like in Morency, but the situation in Houston makes his future hard to predict. A lot of upside, but a lot of questions too that only time will answer.

Ryan Moats, Round 3, Philadelphia Eagles: Another smallish RB (5'8", 210 lbs), Moats steps into a situation where the Eagles are looking for someone to be part of a platoon at the RB spot. Brian Westbrook has durability concerns, as does Correll Buckhalter. The Eagles would prefer to have a platoon, especially since Westbrook's likely to sign the one year contract offer currently on the table, and then become a free agent next year. Very productive in college, Moats is a quick, elusive RB who also displays decent pass catching skills.
2005 outlook: Buckhalter is coming off his second torn ACL, and Westbrook has missed time with injury each of the past two years. Moats should immediately step in as a rotation guy who could surprise as a good starter if the injury bug continues to haunt the Eagles at the position. At the very least, Moats is a good handcuff to Westbrook.
Beyond 2005: At the very least will be part of the RBBC Philadelphia prefers to run. If Buckhalter never returns to form, and Westbrook suffers another injury, Moats could end up being the primary RB in 2006.

Frank Gore, Round 3, San Francisco 49ers: Gore has had ACL surgeries on both of his knees in college, but received a clean bill of health by 49er doctors. Whether he can return to the dominant form he displayed before the injuries is questionable. His speed is adequate (4.62 in the 40), but not optimal. 2005 outlook: The 49ers aren't completely sold on Kevan Barlow after his poor showing last year and backup Maurice Hicks just isn't big or dynamic enough to be a full time starter. Gore should provide some tough inside running for the 49ers, and possibly be part of a light rotation with Barlow. Beyond 2005: A lot depends on two factors: Barlow returning to the form he displayed before last season and Gore showing that he's fully recovered from the knee injuries. You route for a kid to rebound from two ACL surgeries, but you seldom see someone overcome them to be a dominant force in the NFL a any position, let alone RB.

Maurice Clarett, Round 3, Denver Broncos: You always know the Broncos are going to select a RB in every draft, but this one is a bit of a puzzler. Clarett hasn't played football in two years (missing last year after not winning a court battle with the NFL and the season before because he was kicked off the Ohio State team), and his performance at the combine (he quit after running a 4.88 in the 40) left many thinking his chances were slim to be drafted on day one. He's a big RB (5'11, 234 lbs) and although questions surround his speed, the Broncos have a track record of making many RBs look good no matter their size or speed. For example, Mike Anderson. Anderson was drafted in round 6 of the 2000 draft. He ran a plodding 4.73 in his 40 yard dash. But that didn't stop Anderson from putting up 1,487 yards and 15 TD's as a rookie. I'm not saying Clarett will do that (after all, there is Tatum Bell, Quentin Griffin, Mike Anderson, and Ron Dayne to compete with) but it's an example of how on some teams (like Denver) the system dictates the RBs success more than the RB himself. And Claret was considered a dominant college RB the last season he played.
2005 outlook: Bell is the starter, but after that things are murky. Both Quentin Griffin and Mike Anderson are coming back from season ending injuries, and the Broncos signed another big RB (Ron Dayne) in free agency. Most likely is that Clarett and Dayne are being groomed as the big back alternatives to Anderson and whichever one looks better in training camp will at least get some time spelling Bell occasionally.
Beyond 2005: In Denver, who knows? The list of successful RBs for the Broncos over the past 8 years is extensive and has always been predictaed on injuries. Nobody expected Olandis Gary or Mike Anderson to make the impacts they did when they got their chances. Clarett could be a boom or bust, like all Bronco RBs. More likely to be a bust in my opinion though.

Marion Barber III, Round 4, Dallas Cowboys: Barber has the size (5'11", 221 lbs) and speed (4.51 in the 40) to be a decent NFL RB. The Cowboys saw last ear that other than Julius Jones, they had no effective runners and therefore they needed one who had good skills they could use to spell Jones occasionally, or fill in as the starter if Jones has more injury issues. Barber runs well, catches the ball well, and has scored 28 TD's his last two seasons in college.
2005 outlook: Backup to Julius Jones and maybe a 3rd down RB. Will get some carries, but unless Jones gets injured, Barber has limited upside. Good handcuff candidate as Jones missed the first half of last season with injury.
Beyond 2005: Would need an injury to Jones to have any fantasy impact. However, if an injury happened, Barber could shine.

Ciatrick Fason, Round 4, Minnesota Vikings: It wouldn't be an NFL draft without the Vikings taking a RB in round 4. But just like with Onterrio Smith in 2003 and Mewelde Moore in 2004, the Vikings found a gem with Fason. Not really big (6'0", 207 lbs), Fason plays faster than his timed speed (4.62 in the 40), and catches the ball very well.
2005 outlook: Mike Tice has declared his starting RB job is up for grabs and although Michael Bennett and Smith are more likely to be the front runners, don't discount Fason. Like the Broncos, the Vikings have been an effective running team with whoever they've had at RB and that's always been because injuries have forced them to start more than one each of the past 3 years. Likeliest scenario is that Fason sees the field little this season though. Moe Williams is still their 3rd down RB, and Moore figures into the mix as well.
Beyond 2005: Both Bennett and Smith are free agents after this season and the Vikings may be looking for someone who can step in as their starter. Fason is a super sleeper for dynasty leagues as he is a more complete RB than Moore, and Williams isn't getting any younger.

Darren Sproles, Round 4, San Diego Chargers: Sproles is a speedy RB with great elusiveness. He lacks the size (5'6", 187 lbs) to be a feature RB, but definitely has good pass catching abilities and has been productive and resilient in college as a starter each of the past 3 seasons.
2005 outlook: Sproles is an excellent kick returner and should easily take over those duties in San Diego as a rookie. He should also find his way into the offense on occasion, especially in passing situations so LaDainian Tomlinson doesn't get overworked.
Beyond 2005: Sproles likely is never anything more than a backup RB, but a great kick returner for years to come.

Brandon Jacobs, Round 4, New York Giants: Mammoth (6'4", 267 lbs) RB with surprising speed (4.56 in the 40) for a guy his size. Knock on him is that he doesn't play up to his timed speed. Not surprising that he's an effective short yardage and goal line RB (19 TD's last season).
2005 outlook: Could very well bring the "Thunder" to a "Thunder and Lightning" offense if that's what Tom Coughlin wants to do. Tiki Barber supplies the lightning and although Barber had a great 2004, there are still questions about whether he can sustain carrying such a huge load in the Giants offense. Jacobs is likely a strong candidate to be a TD guy who also puts up some decent yardage numbers if the Giants want to keep Barber from wearing down.
Beyond 2005: If Jacobs displays the ability to be an effective change of pace to Barber, he could be a solid bench RB for fantasy football purposes, with a chance to be a good starter.

Manuel White, Round 4, Washington Redskins: Although mostly a feature RB in college, White is projected to be moved to FB or H-Back in the Redskins offense. A big RB (6'2", 244 lbs) with good pass catching skills, White provides the big RB presence the Redskins didn't have behind Clinton Portis.
2005 outlook: An H-Back who'll get a couple of carries. Maybe even a short yardage or goalline type RB. White, because of his superior size to every other RB on the Redskins roster could be in contention as the primary backup to Portis.
Beyond 2005: It would take a lot for White to make a fantasy impact in the H-Back role. He'd need Portis to go down to injury to become a primary RB.

Alvin Pearman, Round 4, Jacksonville Jaguars: Versatile RB with excellent pass catching abilities. Not particularly big (5'9", 206 lbs) or speedy (4.67 in the 40), Pearman is not likely to get a chance to be a feature RB.
2005 outlook: Likely 3rd down RB and possibly gets a chance to return kicks. Fantasy value is limited as he won't supplant Fred Taylor, Greg Jones, or LaBrandon Toefield in the RB rotation.
Beyond 2005: If the Jags cut Taylor loose after this season, Pearman is likely to still be what I project him to be in 2005: a 3rd down RB with limited fantasy value.

Damien Nash, Round 5, Tennessee Titans: Has character issues. Quit Missouri's football team in November last year after being suspended by the team for a game. Has good measurables (5'9", 218 lbs, 4.58 40 time) and is an excellent pass catching RB. If not for his character issues, probably would have been drafted much higher.
2005 outlook: Chris Brown is the starter for the Titans, but he has durability issues. Nash will compete with Ray Jackson and Jarrett Payton for the backup job and likely will win it (unless he develops any more attitude). If he wins the job as primary backup, he's a definite handcuff to Brown.
Beyond 2005: If two things happen (Brown continues to have a propensity for injury and Nash gets over his maturity issues), Nash could be a sleeper RB in dynasty leagues who starts in a year or two.

Justin Green, Round 5, Baltimore Ravens: A good blocker, Green will be a FB in the NFL who may make a name for himself as a short yardage or goalline RB.
2005 outlook: Hard to see him supplanting Alan Ricard or Ovie Mughelli as the Ravens FB.
Beyond 2005: Even harder to see him having an impact while Jamal Lewis is a scoring machine in the Ravens rushing attack.

Cedric Houston, Round 6, New York Jets: Houston is a good sized RB (5'11", 225 lbs) with good speed (4.55 in the 40). Not that elusive, Houston runs downhill and isn't afraid of contact. Kind of surprising he lasted until the 6th round as he has the ability to be a good starting RB.
2005 outlook: The Jets needed to replace Lamont Jordan as a backup to Curtis Martin and Houston, because of his superior size, could fit that bill better than free agent signee (and likely 3rd down RB) Derrick Blaylock. Not sure if Houston is the handcuff to Martin, but definitely someone to keep your eyes on if Martin gets injured.
Beyond 2005: How many years does Martin have left? The Jets didn't expect Martin to last this long as they drafted Lamont Jordan to replace him 4 years ago. Blaylock isn't the long term answer if Martin finally wears down. Houston is an excellent candidate to be a solid dynasty pickup in a couple of years.

Deandra Cobb, Round 6, Atlanta Falcons: Too small to be a feature RB (5'9", 191), Cobbs is an explosive kick returner (4 for TD's in two seasons at Michigan State) who needs to develop his pass catching skills to make any impact as a RB in Atlanta.
2005 outlook: Kick returner and maybe an occasionally offensive play. Only has value if your league awards points for his return yards.
Beyond 2005: If he develops his hands, he might turn out to be a decent change of pace or 3rd down RB, but I don't see him as being anything more than a kick return specialist.

Anthony Davis, Round 7, Indianapolis Colts: Another small RB (5'7", 200 lbs), Davis has had injury issues each of his last two years in college. Is a decent pass catcher and has been a workhorse RB (42 rushing TD's in 4 years), but his injury concerns and lack of ideal size obviously scared teams from taking him higher.
2005 outlook: With Edgerrin James, Dominic Rhodes and James Mungro (all proven RBs in the Colts offensive system) ahead of him, Davis will have minimal impact in 2005, if any at all.
Beyond 2005: James is likely out of Indy after this year and neither Rhodes nor Mungro have breakaway speed. It's a longshot, but Davis may have some value starting in 2006 if he stays healthy.

Noah Herron, Round 7, Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers are likely to try Herron at FB because of size (5'11", 224 lbs) and lack of speed (4.74 in the 40). A productive college RB, Herron's best asset is his great hands as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
2005 outlook: No fantasy impact as he'll have to win a job from Dan Kreider or Verron Haynes. Likely practice squad player.
Beyond 2005: Minimal fantasy value as it's likely there'll be better RBs to choose from in a couple of years to replace Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley.

Lionel Gates, Round 7, Buffalo Bills: Good sized RB (5'11", 222 lbs) who is neither very fast or elusive. Catches the ball well, but isn't special with the ball in his hands.
2005 outlook: Will compete for a roster spot at the end of the depth chart with Shaud Williams and Joe Burns.
Beyond 2005: A consummate team player (he shared playing time while in college and never complained), Gates is likely a special teams player who rarely sees time in the offense.

Nehemiah Broughton, Round 7, Washington Redskins: Of course, when you only have 6 picks in a draft, it makes sense for a team like Washington to draft two FB's. Not as shifty, fast, or a pass catcher as Manuel White (whom the Redskins took in round 4), Broughton is a tough short yardage runner and lead blocker.
2005 outlook: Dim. Dismal for fantasy purposes. Unless he exceeds every expectation and becomes a goalline vulture, Broughton offers nothing of value.
Beyond 2005: I'd repeat it for the laugh, but just see the 2005 outlook.

Rick Razzano, Round 7, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A one dimensional FB in every sense of the word, Razzano is a nasty lead blocker whose career high in rushing was 26 carries for 60 yards and 1 TD 3 seasons ago.
2005 outlook: Practice squad or special teams player and backup blocking FB at best.
Beyond 2005: No value for fantasy purposes.

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