Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice from the Experts

2007 Rookie Tight Ends -- By Russ Bliss

Unlike the 2006 NFL Draft class at the TE position, 2007 offers few names with real possibility of ever being players you would consider in your fantasy football leagues. It is top heavy with two guys who have the skills to make the 2007 fantasy football cheat sheets, but otherwise, it is a collection of guys who are best suited in defined roles as red zone threats, mediocre talents with little speed, hard workers with a lack of special abilities, and a couple of high upside guys who need either some maturing at the pro level, or a good switch kick in the pants to motivate them. The TE position has started to emerge again in recent years with more guys who actually have some pretty good fantasy football projections, but there only 2 from this draft class who have the immediate skills to get there, with another 4 who could in time, but probably won’t. I’m really hoping the 2008 NFL Draft offers up a better crop of talented TE’s than we saw this year.

Note: Immediate fantasy football rankings and dynasty fantasy football league values are at the end of this article.

Rookie Rundown (in order drafted)

Greg Olsen, Round 1, Chicago Bears: A natural pass catcher, Olsen displays athletic ability and speed that is rare for the position. He also displays a refreshing amount of humility for a U of M grad and recognizes that he needs to work on the one weakness of his game to become a complete TE at the NFL level: his blocking. As a receiver, Olsen can stretch the seam with his speed and will fight for the ball in traffic. At nearly 6’5” with solid hands and long arms, Olsen will be a desirable target in the red zone and his speed will mean that he also catches for yards between the 20’s.
2007 outlook: The Bears finally got their TE’s involved in their offense in 2006 and discovered they had a pretty good pass catcher there in Desmond Clark. But make no mistake, Olsen is a better athlete and while Clark produced nicely, Olsen will likely garner more attention and playing time in passing situations. The two will likely split time as Olsen works on his blocking technique. The split likely means that Olsen falls short of being a top 10 fantasy TE in 2007, but he should come close and I wouldn’t bet against him getting in there.
Beyond 2007: If Olsen can just become adequate as a blocker, he’ll be a full time player and will rank in the top 8 in fantasy football rankings for the position for years to come. Even if he comes out in obvious running situations, he still is way too talented a pass catcher to not be considered as a solid fantasy football starter.

Zach Miller, Round 2, Oakland Raiders: With great hands and savvy route running, Miller brings good size and athleticism to the position. Very smart and knows where he is and where he needs to be on the field to catch the ball. Is an adequate, but not dominating blocker and lacks the speed to be a vertical threat. Works hard to improve his game and is strong enough to take a hit and not go down.
2007 outlook: Has already been penciled in as the Raiders starter at TE. Oakland has some decent players at the position, so that tells you something about Miller’s athleticism and game. Biggest concern about Miller is the Raiders passing game. If he had gone to another team with a better situation and similar need, Miller would possibly have a fantasy football projection that would place him in the top 10 TE’s. But in Oakland, he’ll be a high upside backup in most leagues.
Beyond 2007: If the Raiders get their QB and OL issues worked out, Miller could be a top 10 fantasy TE for many years. At worst he is definitely a guy you’ll tab as a backup in fantasy leagues and feel comfortable about his potential.

Matt Spaeth, Round 3, Pittsburgh Steelers: Big and tough, Spaeth plays thru injuries and has the height (6’7”) teams like in a red zone TE. Not a natural athlete though and is no threat to turn a catch into a big play. What Spaeth lacks in speed and athleticism, he makes up for with hard work and determination. A good blocker, Spaeth is a TE who can contribute, but isn’t anything special.
2007 outlook: The Steelers already have a good pass catching TE in Heath Miller, and while backup Jerame Tuman is decent, he isn’t a big blocker type, nor is he is that accomplished a pass catcher. Spaeth will battle for a role as a blocking TE and red zone target. But his impact in fantasy will be minimal at best.
Beyond 2007: Spaeth lacks the special skills to ever be more than another mediocre TE in fantasy football. He’ll block, catch a dozen or passes and have a couple of TD’s each year, but he’ll never be a guy who wows you.

Scott Chandler, Round 4, San Diego Chargers: A former WR who switched positions to TE in 2004, Chandler runs smart routes and has good hands. Despite exceptional size, he isn’t a great blocker, doesn’t possess the strength you’d expect from a big man, and has no vertical speed.
2007 outlook: Not nearly the receiving threat of Antonio Gates or the blocker Brandon Manumaleuna is, it’s kind of hard to understand what the Chargers were thinking in drafting Chandler. His fantasy football projection is next to nothing on that team.
Beyond 2007: Chandler has the room to get bigger and it’s possible that if he works hard on his blocking skills a change of position to OT is a possibility. Another possibility is that he lines up as a “tackle eligible” in goal line situations and maybe catches an occasional TD. He could also turn out to be a decent possession style receiver at TE, but his lack of speed will translate into meager fantasy football stats.

Martrez Milner, Round 4, Atlanta Falcons: As gifted an athlete as any TE in this draft class, Milner has the speed to stretch the seam and the strength to be an effective blocker. Unfortunately, Milner seems to lack focus as while he’ll make acrobatic catches, he’ll also drop easy ones and despite his strength, he doesn’t always give the effort to block. If he applies and devotes himself to live up to his natural physical abilities, Milner could be very good in the NFL.
2007 outlook: For the second off-season in a row, Alge Crumpler underwent surgery on a knee. While neither was a major procedure, it does bear noting and makes you wonder if it’s going to be a chronic condition for a player who has been near the top of the fantasy football rankings for the TE position the past few years. The Falcons have several other TE’s on their roster, but none of them are in the league of Crumpler in terms of ability catching the ball. Milner could have a little value if he gets focused and there are any setbacks in Crumpler’s rehab.
Beyond 2007: Again, if Milner can keep his head in the game, and if Crumpler’s knees are breaking down more steadily each year, Milner has a lot of upside for the future. But those are big “if’s” and another one is that if Milner doesn’t wake up and take advantage of his enormous potential, he won’t be in the league for long. Easily, Milner is the 3rd best TE to take in dynasty leagues based on the upside he possesses that others in the draft class don’t.

Kevin Boss, Round 5, New York Giants: Was having a terrific season in 2006 for small school Western Oregon before a shoulder injury cut his season short. Tall athlete with decent hands, Boss could bulk up some as he isn’t very strong or physical catching the ball or blocking. Doesn’t have much speed and needs work on his route running.
2007 outlook: Steps in as Jeremy Shockey’s understudy in New York with the departure of Visanthe Shiancoe. Since Shockey isn’t a great blocker, Boss is an odd fit as he doesn’t block well either. Unless Shockey gets injured, it’s hard to see Boss having any impact in 2007.
Beyond 2007: Has some ability catching the ball, but lacks the speed to stretch the seam. Height may give him some looks as a red zone threat, but unless he develops his routes or gets stronger, his value is limited.

Dante Rosario, Round 5, Carolina Panthers: Rosario’s (6’2”, 242 lbs) size is more indicative of an H-Back than a TE. Maybe a conversion to FB is in the plans for him? Has good hands, but lacks speed and isn’t a physical blocker. Was a good tackler on special teams in college.
2007 outlook: The Panthers needed a TE, but one with more size and skills than Rosario. Carolina doesn’t appear to have a clear cut starter at the position though and Rosario will compete for a spot with penciled-in starter Michael Gaines and last year’s 5th round rookie draft pick Jeff King. The Panthers haven’t used their TE’s much in recent years (due more towards them not having a really good one than by design) and no matter who wins the job, they’re not likely to start making leaps up fantasy football rankings in 2007.
Beyond 2007: Backup TE, FB, H-Back? Doesn’t matter, there is little value with Rosario in fantasy football leagues.

Brent Celek, Round 5, Philadelphia Eagles: Good sized TE who is quick off the line and shows strength running after the catch. Not afraid to fight for the ball and has good hands. Despite having a quick initial burst, Celek doesn’t possess the speed to stretch the seam. While an effective blocker, isn’t as dominant as you would think for a guy who spends as much time in the weight room as he does. Studies film, works on improving his game, and plays hard, Celek has the makings of an effective underneath TE and special teams ace.
2007 outlook: Likely to be the #3 TE behind L.J. Smith and Matt Schobel. Not a lot of upside unless there’s an injury.
Beyond 2007: Celek does have a chance in a west coast offense to eventually turn into a starter. His determination to be better and maximum effort on the field gives him an upside to become someone you notice in a year or two. Especially if L.J. Smith prices himself out of Philadelphia as a free agent after the 2007 season.

Ben Patrick, Round 7, Arizona Cardinals: Possessing good size and hands, Patrick catches the ball easily. Despite being bigger than most TE’s drafted, Patrick isn’t a great blocker and needs better conditioning and more strength to become one. While a good pass catcher and route runner, Patrick isn’t fast and isn’t tall enough to be considered a legitimate red zone threat.
2007 outlook: Will compete with Leonard Pope (Arizona’s underachieving draft pick from 2006) for a starting job. A better blocker than Pope, but that’s not saying much. Pope has the higher upside as a pass catcher. With so many other weapons in the Cardinals offense, it’s difficult to see any of the TE’s being more than mediocre fantasy options.
Beyond 2007: If Patrick dedicates himself to conditioning and getting stronger, he could be a more complete TE than Pope. His lack of speed and great height though means he’d be more of a yardage TE between the 20’s rather than a big TD scorer.

Tyler Ecker, Round 7, Washington Redskins: Good, but not great, blocker with no speed and no stand out traits for the position. Ecker works hard and gives great effort, but while tall, he isn’t very big and could stand to put on some more weight. Adequate receiver, but not creative after the catch.
2007 outlook: Will compete with a collection of other mediocre talents to be the backup TE to Chris Cooley. Even if he win’s the backup battle, there’s little reason to get excited about Ecker’s potential in fantasy football.
Beyond 2007: At best, Ecker is a career backup TE in the NFL. If he actually makes the team and has a long career, you’ll be able to find him on fantasy football free agent lists every week of every year.

Derek Schouman, Round 7, Buffalo Bills: Undersized as a TE at 6’2”, 247 lbs, Schouman has also struggled with injuries each of the last 3 years. Has been effective when healthy though and is a solid blocker. A hard worker with good receiving abilities and a tenacious demeanor playing the game, Schouman could be another candidate to change positions from TE to H-Back or FB at the NFL level.
2007 outlook: Long shot to make the team as the Bills will likely convert Schouman to H-back and they already have done that with two other TE’s on the roster. Eve if he were to somehow become the starter, H-backs rarely make any type of fantasy contribution.
Beyond 2007: At best, Schouman may be able to pull of the type of season Redskins FB Mike Sellers did a couple of years ago. But that’s the absolute best case scenario for fantasy football predictions when it comes to Schouman and it’s more likely he is never relevant.

Michael Allan, Round 7, Kansas City Chiefs: A pass catching TE with terrific size (6’6”, 255 lbs) and enough speed to be more than an underneath receiver, Allan dominated Division III competition in 2006. Has great hands and is a legitimate red zone threat. However, Allan will need a lot of work with his blocking and route running at the pro level as he makes a major jump up in competition.
2007 outlook: Probably needs a year or two on the practice squad to adjust to the pro game. Kansas City already has 3 good TE’s on their roster, so if Allan can slip thru the cuts, he’ll get the chance to develop. No fantasy value in 2007 though.
Beyond 2007: Allan has all the physical tools and hands to become a good TE in the NFL. But make no mistake, he needs some time to adjust. The Chiefs probably have their eye towards the future with Allan as Tony Gonzalez is entering his 11th season. In terms of fantasy football, Allan has a better chance to turn into a player who graces fantasy football rankings in 2009 than several other TE’s selected before him in the 2007 NFL Draft. But he also has the biggest step up to make.

Clark Harris, Round 7, Green Bay Packers: Durable and smart, Clark has good size and is a decent pass catcher. Only an okay blocker though and while he runs good routes, he isn’t shifty nor is he fast. Could bulk up a little more and be an effective long snapper.
2007 outlook: The Packers have stated that the starting TE job is up for grabs, but it’s hard to see Harris being the guy they turn to. However, since none of the other TE’s in Green Bay has exceptional talent, there is a chance Harris makes the team and catches a dozen or so passes in 2007. Unless there’s something I’m missing, Harris is another in a long line of available free agent TE’s in your fantasy football league.
Beyond 2007: Like so many TE’s in this draft class, Harris is a mediocre talent with minimal upside to be a real force in the future in either the NFL or in fantasy football.

2007 Impact Ranking:	Dynasty Values:
1) Greg Olsen	1) Greg Olsen
2) Zach Miller	2) Zach Miller
3) Martrez Milner	3) Martrez Milner
4) Ben Patrick	4) Ben Patrick
5) Matt Spaeth	5) Michael Allan
6) Kevin Boss	6) Brent Celek
7) Brent Celek	7) Matt Spaeth
8) Scott Chandler	8) Scott Chandler
9) Clark Harris	9) Kevin Boss
10) Dante Rosario	10) Clark Harris
11) Tyler Ecker	11) Derek Schouman
12) Michael Allan	12) Dante Rosario
13) Derek Schouman	13) Tyler Ecker

 

See more rookie predictions below:

• Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Advice
• Fantasy Football Running Back Advice
• Fantasy Football Quarterback Advice
• Fantasy Football Kicker Advice
  

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