Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice from the Experts

Drafted rookie kickers stand about a 50/50 chance of making it in the NFL, let alone ever being guys I can give a hot fantasy football tip about. There are plenty of kickers who have done well in college but fail when stepping into the pros. The psyche needed in a kicker at the NFL level needs to be made of stone as with the possible exception of QB, nobody goes from hero to goat faster in a city. There were only 3 kickers drafted in 2007, and all 3 were the only one’s I mentioned in my pre NFL Draft article about the position. It’s a surprising trend that all 3 of the kickers drafted in 2007 are all bigger guys than what we normally associate with kickers in general. Kickers are usually seen as small guys who are 5’10 and 180 lbs at best. All 3 drafted this year are bigger than that, with two of them seeming to be giants in comparison to that archetype.

Note: Immediate fantasy football rankings and dynasty fantasy football league values are at the end of this article.

Rookie Rundown (in order drafted)

Justin Medlock, Round 5, Kansas City Chiefs: Possessing good size for a kicker (6’0”, 201 lbs), Medlock has enough leg strength to boom kickoffs and nail FG’s from 50+ yards. Was 2-2 from 50+ in 2006, and 6-9 for a career in college. Medlock has also improved his accuracy each year in college (made 28 of 32 FGA’s in 2006) and has a high amount of upside in the NFL. Had a DUI conviction in 2006 but it’s hoped that was an isolated incident.
2007 outlook: With the recent trading of veteran restricted free agent Lawrence Tynes to the New York Giants, the kicking job is Medlock’s to lose. While rookie kickers usually have some issues with accuracy or pressure, Medlock has been in a big time college program and succeeded, so the prognosis is pretty good for him. While he probably won’t make the top 10 in any of the 2007 fantasy football rankings for kickers, his leg strength bodes well for those leagues that award bonuses for length of FG.
Beyond 2007: Provided he keeps himself clean, there’s a lot to like about Medlock’s future. While no college kicker is a sure thing coming out, if he makes it thru his first couple of seasons, Medlock has top 10 potential.

Nick Folk, Round 6, Dallas Cowboys: At 6’2”, 206 lbs, Folk is tall for a kicker. Has great leg strength on both his kickoffs and FG’s, displaying the ability to hit from 50+. Folk’s downfall is that he has accuracy issues. Was 19-24 from 0-39 yards, but only 11-21 from 40+ the last 3 years. Has handled punting duties the last two seasons as well and may actually be a better punter than kicker in the pro’s.
2007 outlook: Will battle with another kicker who struggles with accuracy, Martin Gramatica, for the starting job in Dallas. Even if he wins the job it’s hard to get excited about a kicker who has only nailed barely 79% of his FGA’s from under 40 yards, and is almost an even 50/50 beyond it. Might actually compete for the punting job too.
Beyond 2007: I’ve always said that you can teach accuracy and technique to a kicker, but you can’t teach leg strength. Folk is a classic example of a guy who needs that coaching. If he takes to it, he can develop into the type of kicker Joe Nedney has been in the NFL (strong leg, questionable accuracy that got a lot better with time). If he doesn’t, he is like Michael Koenen in Atlanta (a kicker/punter who comes in for the long tries, but not the short ones).

Mason Crosby, Round 6, Green Bay Packers: Standing 6’1”, 214 lbs, Crosby is a big kicker who is extremely accurate within 39 yards (39-43 for his college career). Has also improved his accuracy within 50 yards the last 2 seasons nailing 13 of 16 attempts in that range. Also has displayed plenty of leg strength making 13 of 25 on 50+ yard attempts in his career (it needs to be noted that 3 his misses in this range in 2006 came from 60 yards out or further). There are some who are concerned that some of his leg strength comes from having kicked in the thin air at Colorado, but he nailed a 58 yard FG at Miami last year so those concerns are overblown. However, the concern about his technique is warranted as his kicks sometimes come low off the foot which in the NFL will lead to blocks.
2007 outlook: Will compete with Dave Rayner for the job in Green Bay. Rayner did pretty well for the Packers last year, but struggled with accuracy. If Crosby wins the job, and I think he will, he’ll likely have similar issues, but could be a decent starter in leagues where bonuses are awarded based on length of FG.
Beyond 2007: I think Crosby has a bright future in the NFL and will be ranked highly in fantasy football projections for years to come. You can teach technique, but you just can’t teach that leg strength.

See more rookie predictions below:

• Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Advice
• Fantasy Football Running Back Advice
• Fantasy Football Quarterback Advice
• Fantasy Football Tight End Advice

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