Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice from the Experts

2007 Rookie Quarterbacks -- By Russ Bliss

If you’re looking for some immediate fantasy football help at the QB position, you’re not likely to find it in the 2007 rookie class. While JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn are reminiscent of Vince Young and Matt Leinart last year, it’s my fantasy football advice that neither is likely to have the same success those two enjoyed. Russell will step into a highly suspect situation where he’s likely to be asked to start sooner than he is really ready, while Quinn may be more ready to start, but may be asked to do too much with so many question marks about the weapons and offensive line around him. Both are clearly the top prospects of this draft class though. That said, there are a couple of others (notably Kevin Kolb and Trent Edwards) who have potential to become solid fantasy prospects in a couple of years. There’s also a couple of hit or miss guys too like John Beck and Troy Smith. Of 11 QB’s selected in the 2007 NFL Draft, I’d be shocked if more than 4 ever pan out to anything.

Note: Immediate fantasy football rankings and dynasty fantasy football league values are at the end of this article.

Rookie Rundown (in order drafted)

JaMarcus Russell, Round 1, Oakland Raiders: Russell is a boom or bust QB for the NFL. As I mentioned in my pre-draft article, he is an impressive physical specimen boasting great size and a big time arm. While the arm is strong enough to make every NFL throw, he needs to work on his mechanics some as he relies on it too often. Despite being considered very athletic, Russell lacks the speed to be a running style QB. Drafted #1 overall, Russell will is expected to be the QB of the future for the Raiders and the future could be as soon as game 1.
2007 outlook: Russell will come in compete with Andrew Walter and newly acquired Josh McCown for the starting job. The Raiders likely would prefer to let one of the other two start the season to gauge whether their offensive line (which was awful in 2006) has improved enough to provide some protection for Russell so he isn’t a sitting duck whenever he goes back to pass. There are some good weapons around him if Russell wins the job outright. But I can’t see Russell really succeeding as a rookie QB in 2006. At best the OL is much improved, meaning the running game will take pressure off of him and allow him to be able to throw the ball. At worst, the OL isn’t any better and Russell is doomed to the same fate that Raider QB’s suffered in 2006. Either way, Russell shouldn’t be in the top 20 of any of the 2007 fantasy football rankings at QB. Not even if he is the starter from day one.
Beyond 2007: Boom or bust candidates are hard to predict. He has the monster size and throwing skills to succeed and be the Raiders QB for the next 10 years. He could click and turn into a top flight fantasy football QB in 2-3 years. He could also turn into another #1 overall QB like David Carr if forced to run for his life every time he goes back to pass.

Brady Quinn, Round 1, Cleveland Browns: Quinn, like Matt Leinart last year, is the most NFL ready QB in this draft class. Groomed by Charlie Weis in a pro style offense, Quinn possesses a great combination of size and leadership. There are two knocks on Quinn. One is that his long passes aren’t as accurate as some would like. Sure, that sounds like a problem, but his short to intermediate passes have velocity and are right on the money more often than not as his 64% completion percentage the last two years will attest to. The other is that he can get flustered when the protection breaks down. But there is a lot to like about Quinn, and one thing is that he’ll have a chip on his shoulder after sliding all the way down to the 22nd selection.
2007 outlook: Quinn steps into a Browns situation that is muddled with uncertainty. While I personally think the team didn’t give incumbent QB Charlie Frye enough time or talent to succeed, I don’t deny that Quinn is the better overall QB of the two. Quinn will compete with Frye and Derek Anderson for the starting job right away, and I won’t be surprised if he wins it. However, he’ll need players like Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, and Jamal Lewis to step up their performances in 2007 for him to have any value in a standard re-draft fantast football league.
Beyond 2007: Quinn will be given at least 3 years to show he is a capable NFL QB. He’ll get every chance to work thru any growing pains and his upside is high. Whether he ever graces the top 10 in any fantasy football cheat sheet is questionable unless Cleveland gets him some more weapons in the offense. I see Quinn as a borderline starter and probable top backup in fantasy football leagues for years to come.

Kevin Kolb, Round 2, Philadelphia Eagles: While many have bemoaned the Eagles taking Kolb so high in round 2, it’s a move that makes perfect sense to me. In my fantasy football blog on 1st day draft thoughts, I applauded the Eagles for recognizing what has become apparent: Donovan McNabb can’t stay healthy, and now that he’ll be 31 in November, they need to start thinking about the future of the position now. Kolb has been a 4 year starter and while not playing in a pro style offense, he has been successful. He has excellent size (6’3”, 218 lbs) and a good arm and needs a year or two to learn before being ready for real action.
2007 outlook: Kolb will compete with Kelly Holcomb to be the Eagles #3 QB in 2007 behind Donovan McNabb and A.J. Feely. Kolb should win that battle pretty easily. The Eagles recognize that Feely isn’t the future and at best is only a stop gap for when McNabb gets injured. Kolb will only see the field if (when?) McNabb gets injured and Feely fails to impress. Otherwise, he has no value in 2007.
Beyond 2007: Here’s where Kolb has some value. If you play in a dynasty league with a lot of roster spots and can afford to give a guy a roster spot you don’t have any immediate need for, Kolb is worth it. It’s a great system fit for him in Philadelphia and I think that in 2-3 years the Eagles could treat McNabb the same way Steve McNair was treated by Tennessee last off-season.

John Beck, Round 2, Miami Dolphins: Has functional size (almost 6’2”, 215 lbs) and good leadership qualities. Beck is a smart QB, but has a low delivery point throwing the ball which could lead to problems with batted passes in the NFL. Extremely accurate on short to intermediate throws, but lacks a big time arm so longer passes sail on him. Would benefit by having the luxury of holding a clipboard, watching and learning from a veteran QB, and working on his mechanics as opposed to being thrust into a starting job right away.
2007 outlook: There are still rumors about the Dolphins trying to acquire Trent Green in a trade with Kansas City so a lot depends on that. If Green is acquired, Beck likely gets that luxury I referred to above. If Green isn’t acquired, as it stands right now, the Dolphins still have Daunte Culpepper slated to be ready sometime around training camp and, Cam Cameron favorite, Cleo Lemon on the roster. No matter what happens, it’s hard to see Beck starting the 2007 season, but he could be the starter by half-way thru the season. At best I see him as a marginal producer in fantasy football in 2007.
Beyond 2007: The Dolphins must be thinking Beck is their long term answer at the position, but I just am not sold on him as being anything more than a QB who will have some good games, but a lot of mediocre ones. I think the Dolphins will be looking for their QB of the future again 3 or 4 years from now.

Drew Stanton, Round 2, Detroit Lions: Stanton looks the part of an NFL QB. He has good size, a strong arm, and has enough athleticism in the pocket to avoid the rush. Problem is that he hasn’t shown he can consistently make good reads and decisions. He also has issues with confidence when things go bad and sometimes looks to run too soon when he thinks the pocket is collapsing. The confidence could be a product of the lack of great talent around him in college, but it does raise a flag about how he’ll handle similar situations in the NFL.
2007 outlook: Will compete with Dan Orlovsky for the top backup spot to Jon Kitna. While Stanton was drafted in the 2nd round, I think Orlovsky would get the first chance should anything happen to Kitna as the Lions offense under Mike Martz would be a bit confusing for a rookie to come in and run efficiently right away.
Beyond 2007: Kitna’s not getting any younger and while he had a good statistical season in 2006, he is only holding down the job until the Lions feel comfortable turning it over to someone younger. Stanton is that younger guy. If the coaches can get Stanton to stop brooding over mistakes when they happen and keep his composure when the pocket breaks down, he could surprise in a couple of years. Without having anything concrete to back it up, I can’t help but feel that Stanton is the next coming of Charlie Batch for Detroit.

Trent Edwards, Round 3, Buffalo Bills: Has solid size and leadership qualities. Edwards plays with confidence and has a strong enough arm to make all the throws. He isn’t afraid to stand tall in the pocket and take a hit. That in itself has led to his biggest problem: staying healthy. Edwards has missed games because of injury 3 of his 4 seasons in college. If he can’t stay healthy standing up to the pass rush of the PAC 10, how can we expect him to hold up in the NFL?
2007 outlook: The Bills can’t be totally sold on J.P. Losman since they drafted a QB on the first day. But Losman did earn some confidence in the coaching staff last year and so Edwards will compete with Craig Nall to be Losman’s backup. Given Losman’s track record, Edwards may actually see some action in 2007, but he wouldn’t be someone I’d feel good about relying on if it happened.
Beyond 2007: This is where it gets interesting. Everyone seems to agree that Edwards could have a bright NFL future in front of him if he could stay healthy. That being the case there are two scenarios for Edwards. If Losman develops into the QB the Bills envisioned him to be when they took him round 1 back in 2004, Edwards could become a backup QB coveted by other teams like Matt Schaub was in Atlanta behind Michael Vick. In that case, the Bills trade him for more than the 3rd round pick they invested in him. If Losman doesn’t continue to show improvement, Edwards could be their QB of the future. In deep dynasty style fantasy football leagues, Edwards is a guy you grab and stash for a few years to see if he holds high value down the road either for your team, or in trade with another.

Isaiah Stanback, Round 4, Dallas Cowboys: Much like a few QB’s I wrote about in last year’s rookie QB analysis, Stanback is a much better athlete than QB. He possesses decent size, but is very inconsistent as a passer. He has a big time arm, but it isn’t very accurate and since he has exceptional speed and elusiveness for a QB, a position change to WR isn’t out of the question.
2007 outlook: Unless the Cowboys change him to another position, Stanback will be the 3rd QB in Dallas behind Tony Romo and Brad Johnson. Even with a potential position change, it’s hard to imagine a big time season given the other offensive weapons the Cowboys have.
Beyond 2007: I get the feeling that the Cowboys will use Stanback similarly to how Seattle uses Seneca Wallace. He’ll be a backup QB who also sometimes lines up at WR and plays on special teams. Given the fact that type of use doesn’t make Wallace show up on any fantasy football rankings, I doubt if Stanback ever will either.

Jeff Rowe, Round 5, Cincinnati Bengals: Tall (nearly 6’5”) but lanky, Rowe is an elusive QB who hasn’t been in a pro style offense in college. Has good accuracy and touch on his short to intermediate passes, but lacks the big arm to deliver the deep ball on target. Word is that he’s coachable, and he’ll need to be as his technique needs work, and he’ll need to learn to read NFL defenses.
2007 outlook: Will be the #3 QB behind Carson Palmer and Doug Johnson in Cincinnati. Or at least he will be if the team doesn’t designate him to the practice squad and sign someone else to be the #3. It would take a lot for Rowe to have any chance for fantasy value in 2007.
Beyond 2007: It would take a lot for Rowe to have any chance for fantasy value in the future, too. Not saying it can’t happen, but I just don’t see it. At best, he develops into Carson Palmer’s version of Jim Sorgi in Indianapolis.

Troy Smith, Round 5, Baltimore Ravens: An outstanding athlete with solid arm strength, the only things that prevent Smith from making it in the NFL are the fact he’s barely 6 feet tall, and there are serious questions about his character. Character aside, 6 foot tall QB’s rarely succeed in the NFL. However, Smith does have a strong arm, has led a big time college program with much success, doesn’t get flustered by rushing lineman, and can make plays with his feet when he needs to.
2007 outlook: Unless Steve McNair and Kyle Boller both get injured, Smith is destined to be the #3 QB in Baltimore. There’s an outside chance the Ravens may think about getting him on the field at other positions, but that’s doubtful.
Beyond 2007: Here’s where a lot of speculation comes in. Obviously McNair is only playing another year or two. Obviously the Ravens have soured on Boller as their QB of the future. Smith has some long odds to buck the trend of shorter QB’s making it in the NFL, but I think he’ll get the chance. But honestly, I don’t see a long career as a starter for him.

Jordan Palmer, Round 6, Washington Redskins: The younger brother of Bengals QB Carson Palmer, Jordan possesses great size, but little else in terms of the skills necessary for him to succeed in the NFL. He doesn’t possess his brother’s strong arm, nor does he make good decisions and reads. He does play thru injuries though and is willing to take a hit. Jordan will need some time before he’ll be ready for the NFL (if ever).
2007 outlook: Probably headed to the practice squad unless the Redskins release Mark Brunell or Todd Collins.
Beyond 2007: The Redskins have Jason Campbell as their future at QB, so the best Palmer can hope for is to be the backup. He has the pedigree to play in the NFL, but he’ll need work if he is ever to become more than just a decent backup.

Tyler Thigpen, Round 7, Minnesota Vikings: Since most no one except the most die hard of college football fans or small school fans of the Big South Conference, will know anything about Thigpen (raise your hand if you ever heard of Coastal Carolina before Thigpen was selected), let me tell you about him. Thigpen is 6’2”, 223 lbs. He had solid numbers in 2006 against small school competition, setting several school and Big South records. He has shown increased accuracy and strong leadership qualities. He doesn’t possess a really strong arm, and will take off running too quickly instead of standing in the pocket and locating the WR.
2007 outlook: Will compete with (get this) Drew Henson for the 3rd QB spot in Minnesota. While I’ve never been a Henson fan, I’m willing to give the edge to Henson and say Thigpen is either cut or placed on the practice squad by the beginning of the 2007 season. That speaks volumes about my thoughts on Thigpen’s chances anywhere in the NFL since the top 2 QB’s in Minnesota are Tarvaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger.
Beyond 2007: Anyone play in an Arena Football Fantasy League? If not, move along. But at least Thigpen will be able to tell his grandchildren he was drafted by an NFL team back in 2007.

2007 Impact Ranking:	Dynasty Values:
1) Brady Quinn	1) JaMarcus Russell
2) JaMarcus Russell	2) Brady Quinn
3) John Beck	3) Kevin Kolb
4) Trent Edwards	4) Trent Edwards
5) Kevin Kolb	5) Drew Stanton
6) Drew Stanton	6) John Beck
7) Troy Smith	7) Troy Smith
8) Isaiah Stanback	8) Isaiah Stanback
9) Jeff Rowe	9) Jordan Palmer
10) Jordan Palmer	10) Jeff Rowe
11) Tyler Thigpen	11) Tyler Thigpen

 

See more rookie predictions below:

• Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Advice
• Fantasy Football Running Back Advice
• Fantasy Football Tight End Advice
• Fantasy Football Kicker Advice
  

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