Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice from the Experts

2007 Rookie Running Backs -- By Russ Bliss

Every year it’s a popular fantasy football strategy to go after rookie RB’s. In re-draft fantasy football leagues, they usually make good upside #3 RB’s, while in dynasty leagues they can be critical to future success. The 2007 NFL draft class offers up several intriguing players with high future upside, but only one who is a sure fire feature RB. A few others could develop into feature RB’s, but the growing popularity in the NFL of using multiple RB’s means that fewer can really be trusted to become so. In this draft class, it actually works out pretty well with this new philosophy in the NFL as many of these rookie RB’s are suited best to be part (either as a primary or as a complimentary RB) of a committee instead of full time, every down, feature guys.

Note: Immediate fantasy football rankings and dynasty fantasy football league values are at the end of this article.

Rookie Rundown (in order drafted)

Adrian Peterson, Round 1, Minnesota Vikings: It was my belief before the 2007 NFL Draft that Peterson was the only RB who had the complete package and could become a real feature RB in the NFL. He has the size and speed, and will catch the ball better than many expect. His only knock is his ability to stay healthy. Peterson likely slid to the 7th pick because of the reports coming out that said his collarbone could require additional surgery before training camp. The other knock on Peterson is that his aggressive running style leads to a high probability of injury. But on a level of pure talent and skill, Peterson is as good a RB to come out of college as any in the last 20 years.
2007 outlook: The Vikings were thrilled to see Peterson fall to them at #7 as they learned last season what I had said all off-season and in my preseason fantasy RB rankings and write-ups that Chester Taylor simply can’t be a full time guy. Taylor is still there, but he’s likely to turn into a complimentary RB to Peterson. Only reason there could be any split that would cause Peterson to not be getting most of the carries is if the collarbone injury continues to be a problem (and there is reason for some concern there). If he stays healthy, Peterson stands and excellent chance of being a top 15 RB on the 2007 fantasy football rankings.
Beyond 2007: Health is the only concern. You have to figure that if he stays healthy, Peterson pushes Taylor back into the backup role he enjoyed in Baltimore behind Jamal Lewis. In that case Peterson has elite fantasy RB potential. But the injuries are a concern.

Marshawn Lynch, Round 1, Buffalo Bills: Lynch possesses the size and speed you want in a feature RB. What he doesn’t possess is the history of successfully being one. Lynch has been the primary RB in college for California the last 2 seasons, but he shared a lot of time with Justin Forsett. Much more time than J.J. Arrington shared with Lynch back in 2004. So there is concern here. Lynch has superior size and toughness to Arrington, but isn’t as fast.
2007 outlook: Lynch will compete with Anthony Thomas for the primary RB job in Buffalo. Given that Thomas has failed to live up to expectations anywhere, Lynch should be able to wrestle a primary RB spot as part of a RBBC (running back by committee). On the big upside, Lynch surprises and becomes a true feature guy. On the downside he could end up being on the disappointing end of a RBBC that features an equal amount of Anthony Thomas (or another rookie RB Buffalo drafted, Dwayne Wright).
Beyond 2007: Lynch was drafted to be the RB in Buffalo for years to come. He’ll be given every opportunity to do it. I just doubt if he’ll ever be more than a guy who tops out at 20 touches per game and can’t carry a full time load. Considering the amount of teams going with multiple RB offenses, Lynch should at least be a productive fantasy football RB.

Kenny Irons, Round 2, Cincinnati Bengals: Irons has the attitude, but lacks the size to be a feature RB. As a smaller RB, he makes an excellent candidate for a change of pace guy to a bigger RB though and that’s the situation he’s landed in. Irons isn’t accomplished as a pass catcher, but will definitely need to work on that to make it in the pros since he isn’t likely to be a pounding RB.
2007 outlook: Irons steps into Cincinnati and will be Rudi Johnson’s primary backup. The Bengals still have Chris Perry, but he’s been injury prone and the team obviously doesn’t see him in their long term plans. Irons won’t get a lot of carries as Rudi Johnson doesn’t get injured, but he certainly warrants attention as a handcuff to Johnson in case anything happens.
Beyond 2007: Things could get interesting in the future for Irons. Rudi Johnson is in the middle years of a contract and the book on Irons says if he could bulk up another 10-15 lbs, he could be a feature RB. While I doubt if that happens, it does bear noting and don’t be surprised if just like Perry was a couple of years ago, Irons performance makes him the talk of warranting more time over Johnson.

Chris Henry, Round 2, Tennessee Titans: Nobody’s value at RB sky rocketed more than Chris Henry’s leading up to the draft. Henry is a workout warrior who never did much on the field in college. In 3 college seasons, Henry was never a feature RB, gaining a total of 859 rushing yards, a 3.4 rushing yards average, and 10 total career TD’s. But because of the lack of potential feature RB’s in the 2007 class, Henry’s value went up the charts to the point where he was taken because of his more desirable size and speed combo. Henry is a big time boom or bust candidate at the NFL level.
2007 outlook: As it currently stands, Henry will compete with LenDale White for the starting job in Tennessee. The Titans are likely to add a veteran RB to compete with both though as neither has proved anything. But for right now, Henry has a legitimate chance to be a feature RB if he can beat out Cheeto-grabbing White.
Beyond 2007: Henry is tough to project forward. He has all the physical tools you would want in a feature RB in the NFL, but he’s never translated them into production on the gridiron. If he does, he has a high ceiling in dynasty leagues. But he could also be another in a long line of players who have turned the attention of teams away from their lack of on field production with some eye popping workouts.

Brian Leonard, Round 2, St. Louis Rams: Leonard is a FB who is way too talented to be classified as a typical FB. He has excellent running abilities, pass catching abilities, and work ethic. Leonard is big, strong, and smart. He blocks well, and is a more athletic version of Mike Alstott with better overall game.
2007 outlook: The Rams surprised many by selecting Leonard in the 2nd round, but he fits their system very well. His size and complete game package of skills makes him a pretty close clone to current Rams starter Stephen Jackson. Jackson is faster than Leonard, but none of the other RB’s the Rams have on their roster are near as talented or as complete in game as Leonard so Leonard is likely to be the primary backup and mandatory handcuff to Stephen Jackson. If the Rams want to limit the wear and tear on Jackson, Leonard has the ability to spell him at any time during the drive.
Beyond 2007: Leonard lacks the speed to be a feature RB of his own, but he should be a complimentary RB for St. Louis for years to come and a potential TD vulture if the Rams ever part ways with the bulldozing Jackson and go with a smaller RB as their primary ball carrier.

Brandon Jackson, Round 2, Green Bay Packers: Reminds me a lot of another RB from Nebraska who didn’t get a lot of hype coming out back in 1998, Ahman Green. Jackson possesses enough size and speed to be a feature RB at the NFL level. In college he never was a feature RB though and you wonder if maybe he just isn’t cut out to be one. Jackson is a hard runner, a good pass catcher, and a willing blocker. His overall game makes him ideal for the current trend of RBBC, and if asked to, maybe he can expand out to being a primary RB.
2007 outlook: Will compete with Vernand Morency for the Packers primary RB spot in their RBBC. There’s also Noah Herron and 7th round draft pick Deshawn Wynn competing for the position, but Jackson and Morency are the favorites and if the Packers were really sold on Morency, they wouldn’t have drafted Jackson in round 2. The Packers are hoping Jackson takes the job and literally runs with it. I think he will at least become their primary RB and be the best Packers RB for fantasy football rankings in 2007.
Beyond 2007: While hardly a sure thing, I can see Jackson having a career like Ahman Green’s in Green Bay. Of course, after Brett Favre eventually retires, a lot depends on the offensive system and the QB running it as to whether a RB will be successful there.

Lorenzo Booker, Round 3, Miami Dolphins: At 5’10, 188 lbs, Booker is too small to be a feature RB in the NFL. However, Booker is a speedy RB with good hands and is an elusive open field runner. He has great potential to be a solid pass catching 3rd down and change of pace RB.
2007 outlook: There’s still a chance Ricky Williams figures into the equation, but I wouldn’t count on it. Probably Booker steps into the primary backup spot to Ronnie Brown in Miami. While Brown is a complete RB in terms of ability, having a guy like Booker will allow the Dolphins to not overwork Brown, especially when they’re in obvious passing situations.
Beyond 2007: The absolute best fantasy owners could hope for from Booker is that he develops into a Warrick Dunn clone. But I don’t see that happening and peg Booker more likely headed in the same direction as New England Patriots backup RB Kevin Faulk; a solid change of pace guy in the NFL, but not much of an impact fantasy player.

Tony Hunt, Round 3, Philadelphia Eagles: A big, tough, punishing RB, Hunt has the ability to wear down opponents with his size and strength. One thing he won’t do though is dance or outrun anyone. A grinding RB in every sense of the word, Hunt’s lack of speed probably will prevent him from ever being able to be a feature RB.
2007 outlook: Hunt and Philadelphia’s 7th round pick, RB Nate Ilaoa, will bring an element of toughness and size to the Eagles backfield that it currently lacks. Hunt is probably better suited to contribute than Ilaoa but isn’t a big threat to Brian Westbrook for significant playing time unless there’s an injury. Even then, it’s likely the Eagles would use a combination of Hunt and Correll Buckhalter instead of leaning on just one. Hunt’s best chance for fantasy value is as a goal line specialist.
Beyond 2007: Hunt’s best chance for significant fantasy value is to be the primary RB in a power running attack. That’s just not the Eagles style and therefore, unless he finds himself on another team, Hunt isn’t likely to be more than a TD vulture whose best value comes in TD only scoring leagues.

Garrett Wolfe, Round 3, Chicago Bears: Wolfe has put up outrageous numbers in the MAC each of the last seasons. Wolfe has amassed 5,164 rushing yards, 588 receiving yards, and scored a total of 57 TD’s. Unfortunately, Wolfe is only 5’7”, 182 lbs, and that makes him too small to be a feature RB in the pros. However, given his production and size, he makes an excellent complimentary RB to a bigger RB.
2007 outlook: Things look pretty good for Wolfe as a complimentary RB to Cedric Benson in Chicago. Benson is a big feature style RB with suspect pass catching skills so Wolfe’s diminutive size and good hands make an excellent change to Benson. It won’t lead to a lot of fantasy value, but there could be some though as Wolfe is very fast and elusive.
Beyond 2007: Wolfe is simply too small to likely ever be more than a complimentary RB. He doesn’t have a high ceiling for long term value.

Michael Bush, Round 4, Oakland Raiders: Bush is coming off a college season where he only played one game because of a broken leg, but he was having a great game before the injury happened. In 2005, Bush rushed for 1,143 yards and scored an eye-popping 23 rushing TD’s. Bush a big RB with power and agility and good hands. The knocks on him are concerns about his ability to stay healthy (he’s had other injuries in college) and his weight. At 242 lbs at the combine, Bush could stand to lose another 10 lbs and maybe it would help him gain a little speed (which is another area of concern as he is strictly a between the tackles type of runner).
2007 outlook: Drafted by the Oakland Raiders, Bush may have a chip on his shoulder as he slid to round 4, but probably would have been the second or third RB taken if he had stayed healthy. Bush is expected to be ready by the beginning of training camp as he recovers from a second surgery in March and will compete with Lamont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes, and Justin Fargas for playing time in a crowded backfield. Likely Bush, if he proves to be healthy for the start of the regular season will rotate in and out as a backup with primary short yardage and goal line responsibilities.
Beyond 2007: It all depends on Bush staying healthy. If he does, and performs well in 2007, it’s likely that the Raiders will cut Jordan after the season and have Bush compete for the starting job. Concerns about his speed prevent me from being comfortable with him being in a feature RB role, but he could be the thunder to a smaller speedier RB’s lightning as part of a rotation.

Antonio Pittman, Round 4, New Orleans Saints: Pittman lacks the size to be a feature RB in the NFL, but he does possess a pretty complete game. He’s tough despite his size, runs inside or outside the tackles, and has good speed and underrated hands. He’s shown he can be durable having started 25 games the last two years for Ohio State.
2007 outlook: First surprise was his lasting to round 4. The second surprise was him being drafted by the New Orleans Saints. Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister are firmly entrenched ahead of Pittman on the depth chart so unless he shows returns ability on special teams, Pittman likely isn’t to see the field much at all barring one of those other two RB’s getting injured.
Beyond 2007: The Saints aren’t likely to keep McAllister past the 2007 season as he will simply cost too much. Pittman is of similar build to Bush and between the two of them; the Saints could have an explosive 1-2 punch with the dynamic Bush being the 1, and Pittman being the 2. The lack of size probably prevents Pittman from ever being more than a rotational RB any where in the NFL.

Dwayne Wright, Round 4, Buffalo Bills: Wright possesses the size and strength to be a solid RB in the NFL. What he doesn’t possess is speed. While outrunning opponents is out of the question, Wright is a bruising RB who can pick up tough yards and will wear down defenses. Health is a concern as he missed most of 2004 and almost all of 2005 because of a knee injury.
2007 outlook: The Buffalo Bills drafted Marshawn Lynch in the 1st round and then did the smart thing in hedging their bet by selecting Wright in the 4th. Lynch is unproven at handling a full load and there are questions about his ability to be a power RB. Wright makes a great compliment to Lynch and likely Wright will compete with veteran Anthony Thomas for the power RB compliment to Lynch. The winner of that battle, and I think it will be Wright, could be a goal line vulture. And there’s even a chance that Wright turns out to be the primary RB with Lynch the change of pace guy.
Beyond 2007: Unless Lynch has more game than I think, the Bills could have a great set up with Lynch and Wright sharing the RB duties depending on situation. Wright’s lack of speed makes him unlikely to be a feature RB, but used in the ever-growing popular shared duties in a 60-40 split, Wright could provide some decent fantasy football help. And if Lynch flops, maybe Wright gets to be on the 60 end of that split.

Le’Ron McClain, Round 4, Baltimore Ravens: A tough, hard blocking FB, McClain can blow open holes as a lead blocker. Not fast and has more career receptions in college (48) than rushing attempts (37).
2007 outlook: Is bigger than current Ravens FB Justin Green and while not as versatile as Green, is a better overall blocker. While these two will compete for that spot, the FB position is dying in NFL as they normally don’t see a lot of time in most standard offenses any more and even fewer carries.
Beyond 2007: Likely he blocks for Willis McGahee for years to come. But don’t expect that to mean he ever makes any annual fantasy football rankings.

Kolby Smith, Round 5, Kansas City Chiefs: Possessing adequate size and speed, Smith was called upon to be the primary RB for Louisville when Michael Bush went down with injury in the first game of 2006. While Smith became the defacto primary, he was never the feature RB and is unproven in that capacity. However, he has been excellent in his role as a primary in a RBBC and projects very well as a change of pace backup in the NFL.
2007 outlook: Will compete with Michael Bennett for the limited touches Kansas City RB’s not named Larry Johnson get. Isn’t as explosive as Bennett, but has better size. The only way Smith has any fantasy impact is if Johnson gets injured as Bennett isn’t a 20 carry guy and Smith would make an excellent compliment in a RBBC and probably would be the better handcuff to LJ than Bennett.
Beyond 2007: There’s not much to get excited about with Smith long term as he will never be a feature RB no matter what. He makes a smart handcuff to LJ in future years, but at best I see Smith being similar to Kevin Faulk in New England: a decent emergency fantasy filler with limited touches.

Orenthal O’Neal, Round 6, Oakland Raiders: Not much of a rusher or receiver, O’Neal is a classic blocking FB with a desire to knock defenders on their butts. A feel good story, O’Neal was granted a 6th year of eligibility in 2006 by the NCAA because of a serious medical condition that prevented him from playing his first two years in college.
2007 outlook: It’ll be a tough road for O’Neal as the Raiders boast having Justin Griffith and Zack Crockett on their roster, and both of those guys are not only solid NFL FB’s, but both are pretty decent runners when asked to carry the ball.
Beyond 2007: There is no fantasy value with O’Neal.

Reagan Mauia, Round 6, Miami Dolphins: A little heavier than you would expect from a FB (6’0”, 296 lbs) Mauia also has experience as a DT. Hard to imagine that one of the reports on Mauia is that he tries to finesse defenders instead of running over them, but I’ve read it. Also read that he has real problems keeping his weight down, and that could cost him. While he may have caught 10 passes and ran the ball 31 times in 2006, it’s his bulk and blocking ability that got him drafted. His only hope for fantasy purposes is as a William Perry type of TD vulture at the goal line.
2007 outlook: Will backup and learn from Cory Schlesinger. No fantasy value.
Beyond 2007: Is being groomed to be the Dolphins FB of the future. Color me apathetic in terms of fantasy football excitement.

Thomas Clayton, Round 6, San Francisco 49ers: At 5’10”, 200 lbs, Clayton looks the part of a starting NFL RB. After showing promise in 2005, things went south for Clayton in 2006 as he was first suspended one game after being found guilty of battery and then was moved down the depth chart half way thru the season. Clayton possesses decent speed and hands and if not for the character issues, it’s likely he would have been drafted higher. Clayton also has an injury history. Big time boom or bust type of guy.
2007 outlook: Will battle for a roster spot with Michael Robinson and Maurice Hicks. No matter if he makes the team or not he’ll be behind Frank Gore in San Francisco. And that means little fantasy value.
Beyond 2007: IF Clayton can show he’s cleaned up his act, he could eventually get a shot to start somewhere. He has the size teams like. But that’s a big if. In San Francisco, it would take an injury to Gore for Clayton to have any chance for value.

Deon Anderson, Round 6, Dallas Cowboys: A better traditional lead blocker than pass blocker, Anderson has limited skills running and receiving. However, Anderson excelled on special teams as a gunner and that is probably how he’ll make his mark in the NFL as he plays hard with a high motor.
2007 outlook: Will look to make his mark on special teams and as a backup FB. No fantasy value.
Beyond 2007: A special teams demon is possible, but that doesn’t translate into anything for fantasy football predictions.

Justise Hairston, Round 6, New England Patriots: After failing to be able to crack and stay in the starting lineup at Rutgers his first couple of seasons, Hairston transferred to 1-AA Central Connecticut State in 2006 and had an outstanding season. A good sized RB with decent speed, Hairston’s biggest drawback is his pass catching ability. He has none as his 23 career college receptions attest to.
2007 outlook: Will battle for a backup RB spot with Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and a host of others to starter Laurence Maroney. Hairston has the ability to surprise, but he’ll definitely need to work on his receiving if he is to have any chance.
Beyond 2007: If he learns how to catch the ball, he could work his way into a RBBC rotation, but the likelihood he ever becomes anything more than that in the NFL is nil.

Deshawn Wynn, Round 7, Green Bay Packers: At 5’10”, 234 lbs, Wynn might be in line to change to FB if he had any blocking ability, but he doesn’t. Wynn is a one-dimensional power RB who lacks speed, isn’t much of a pass catcher, and is disinterested in blocking.
2007 outlook: Will compete for a backup RB spot in Green Bay. His best chance is to show off his power and ability to get the tough yards so he can be a goal line RB. If he doesn’t do that in training camp and preseason, it’s hard to see him on the final roster.
Beyond 2007: Maybe Wynn surprises me, but I doubt it. His only chance for fantasy football value is as a goal line or power RB supplement in a RBBC.

Nate Ilaoa, Round 7, Philadelphia Eagles: A RB in college, Ilaoa probably will change position to FB because of his 5’8”, 248 lbs frame. Ilaoa is a jack of all trades in terms of game. He runs with power, catches the ball surprisingly well, and is a willing blocker. His biggest knock is a lack of speed (what a surprise at 248 lbs!).
2007 outlook: Will compete for a backup spot in a crowded Eagles backfield. The good news is that Philadelphia doesn’t have a proven bigger RB. The bad news is they drafted one named Tony Hunt 4 rounds higher.
Beyond 2007: The deck is stacked against Ilaoa ever being more than a situational big RB who fights for the tough yards.

Jason Snelling, Round 7, Atlanta Falcons: Solid all around FB with good running and receiving abilities. Good blocker and decent speed for a FB. There’s a lot to like about Snelling as he reminds me a lot of the guy the Falcons let go at FB this off-season, Justin Griffith.
2007 outlook: Unfortunately for Snelling, the Falcons replaced Griffith with one of the better FB’s in the NFL, Ovie Mughelli. Snelling will compete with Corey McIntyre as Mughelli’s backup. At best, Snelling can hope to be in on certain passing situations and get used like Griffith once was.
Beyond 2007: Let’s face it, FB’s never are anything more than desperate free agent fodder in fantasy football leagues, and Snelling will be no different. But at the very least, he possesses the type of game which could allow him to become one of those considerations in desperate times.

Ken Darby, Round 7, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A good athlete with decent size and good, but not great speed, Darby surprisingly fell all the way to round 7 when I thought he should have been drafted sooner. Darby plays thru injuries, shows a workman’s attitude towards running between the tackles despite not having great bulk, and catches the ball well. His biggest knocks are that he doesn’t have great speed and while willing, isn’t a great blocker.
2007 outlook: Will compete with Earnest Graham and Lionel Gates for the 3rd RB spot behind Carnell Williams and Michael Pittman in Tampa Bay. He stands a good chance of actually winning it, but his value for fantasy in 2007 is bound entirely to the health of Williams and Pittman.
Beyond 2007: Darby may have what it takes to be an effective starter in the NFL, but his chance likely doesn’t happen in Tampa Bay. He’s worth a late round flyer in dynasty leagues as either the future handcuff to Williams or as a potential Michael Turner type backup who commands attention from other NFL teams in 3-4 years.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Round 7, New York Giants: A very productive college RB, Bradshaw lacks the size to be a feature RB in the NFL. He catches the ball well, and has good instincts as a runner so he could turn out to be a change of pace RB to a bigger RB.
2007 outlook: Luckily Bradshaw goes to the Giants who have the biggest starting RB in the league in Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw will compete with Derrick Ward for the 3rd RB spot behind Jacobs and Reuben Droughns. With a little luck he can work his way into the rotation in passing situations.
Beyond 2007: The Giants would prefer to not overwork any one RB and with Droughns likely to only be with the team only 1, maybe 2 seasons, Bradshaw has a higher upside than many RB’s taken ahead of him in the draft. Bradshaw could provide a pass catching compliment to Jacobs in the future. Although he’d stand a better chance of having real value if he had more speed.

2007 Impact Ranking:	Dynasty Values:
1) Adrian Peterson	1) Adrian Peterson
2) Marshawn Lynch	2) Brandon Jackson
3) Brandon Jackson	3) Marshawn Lynch
4) Chris Henry	4) Michael Bush
5) Dwayne Wright	5) Kenny Irons
6) Kenny Irons	6) Chris Henry
7) Brian Leonard	7) Dwayne Wright
8) Lorenzo Booker	8) Brian Leonard
9) Tony Hunt	9) Antonio Pittman
10) Garrett Wolfe	10) Tony Hunt
11) Michael Bush	11) Ken Darby
12) Kolby Smith	12) Lorenzo Booker
13) Ken Darby	13) Garrett Wolfe
14) Deshawn Wynn	14) Thomas Clayton
15) Thomas Clayton	15) Kolby Smith
16) Antonio Pittman	16) Justise Hairston
17) Justise Hairston	17) Deshawn Wynn
18) Nate Ilaoa	18) Nate Ilaoa
19) Ahmad Bradshaw	19) Jason Snelling
20) Jason Snelling	20) Ahmad Bradshaw
21) Le’Ron McClain	21) Le’Ron McClain
22) Reagan Mauia	22) Reagan Mauia
23) Deon Anderson	23) Deon Anderson
24) Orenthal O’Neal	24) Orenthal O’Neal

 

See more rookie predictions below:

• Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Advice
• Fantasy Football Quarterback Advice
• Fantasy Football Tight End Advice
• Fantasy Football Kicker Advice
  

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