Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice

2007 NFL Free Agents: Running Backs -- By Russ Bliss

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There certainly are a lot of RB’s this season who are free agents, and the list grew with the release of several players. And while there are many names, it isn’t as top heavy as the 2006 free agent class. There’s only a few that will be looking at a high spot in the 2007 fantasy football rankings. But you never know when a change of scenery will mean a guy you didn’t think would have much value finds himself creeping up the fantasy football draft boards in August. That said, let’s dive into them. I’ll start with the guys who were free agents but have been signed by a team. Following them is a list of 2007 free agent running backs that are still available.

Travis Henry: Say what you will about Henry not having special skills, his performance for the Tennessee Titans in 2006 can’t be ignored. 1,211 rushing yards and 7 TD’s on a suspect offense gets you noticed both by NFL teams and fantasy football players. The Denver Broncos certainly noticed and snatched Henry up quickly. The Titans were interested in re-signing Henry, but Denver made a strong push and now Henry takes his competent game to the Broncos. Denver had a need at RB when they shipped off Tatum Bell to the Detroit Lions in a trade. While Henry likely won’t be a feature RB in Denver, it’s most likely he gets a 3-1 split with Mike Bell. Given the Broncos history of producing productive fantasy football RB’s, Henry deserves serious consideration as your fantasy RB #2 when you get to you fantasy football draft and could be a surprise candidate to finish in the top 10 fantasy RB’s in 2007 if he unexpectedly gets a full work load.

Jamal Lewis: Despite gaining 1,132 rushing yards and scoring 9 TD’s in 2006, Lewis was considered a disappointment in Baltimore. Released by the team, it didn’t take long for him to find a new home as division rival Cleveland signed Lewis to a 1 year contract. The Browns traded veteran RB Reuben Droughns to the New York Giants, thusly leaving them a big hole to fill, and Lewis should fill it at least temporarily. I’m sure a desire to play against the Ravens twice in 2007 played a part in signing a one year deal. Lewis will only be 28 by the time the 2007 regular season gets started and a one year deal will leave him with plenty of incentive to play hard and prove that he can still be a solid starting RB in the NFL so he can cash in next year as a free agent again in 2008.

Ahman Green: While not in his prime, Green still has some game and moves on to the Houston Texans where he gets a 4 year, 23 million dollar deal. He also gets reunited with Mike Sherman, who is the Texans assistant head coach on offense and was the Packers head coach during Green’s best seasons in the NFL. Green’s signing likely means the Texans are very concerned about the healthy return of Domanick Williams (formerly Domanick Davis; don’t ask why the name change). Williams suffered a setback in his recovery from a knee injury that kept him out all of the 2006 season and the Texans saw enough of their other RB options to know they needed someone. Sherman knows Green, and Green is clearly the best RB the team has now. Green’s upside is tied directly to an offensive line that has been mediocre the past few years.

Anthony Thomas: Thomas performed decently as Willis McGahee’s backup in Buffalo last season and now that McGahee is gone, the team re-signed Thomas. Whether they plan on making him their feature RB though is in question, especially since the deal is being reported as for only 2 years and a little over 1 million dollars each year. This leads to speculation they could still sign another free agent or target the position in the 2007 NFL draft. But for now, Thomas sits as the Bills #1 RB and a chance to show he can regain the form he had early in his career. While doubtful, he could surprise with decent production in 2007 and provide some fantasy football help as a sleeper. But that depends on whether the Bills acquire someone else as well.

Dominic Rhodes: Rhodes goes from being snubbed as Super Bowl MVP to a team snubbed by every coaching candidate with NFL experience, the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have a new coaching staff in place and are looking for someone to push veteran Lamont Jordan. Rhodes isn’t built to be a feature RB, but in a role as a complimentary guy, he excels. Given that Jordan had a miserable 2006 season that ended prematurely by what was reported as a torn MCL week 11, Rhodes has a chance to by a decent fantasy #4 RB in 2007.

Musa Smith: When the Baltimore Ravens released Jamal Lewis and signed Smith to a 1 year deal, it looked like the talented but unproven Smith would get a chance to at least be a legitimate part of the RB rotation in Baltimore. However, the Ravens had other plans and wanted Smith back more as a backup and special team’s player, which is what his role will be now that the team traded for Buffalo Bills RB Willis McGahee. Smith’s only chance to be on anyone’s fantasy football rankings now is for McGahee to get injured.

Najeh Davenport: While nothing stands out about Davenport’s numbers in 2006 as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the team obviously feels he makes a solid compliment to Willie Parker, as witnessed by the 2 year, 2 million dollar deal they gave him to stay in Pittsburgh. Davenport has size and skills, but has always been injury prone. Parker is firmly entrenched as the starter for the Steelers, but Davenport gives them a big RB to spell the smaller Parker with. Parker has proven to be effective in short yardage and goal line situations, but perhaps Davenport will steal some of those carries so as to keep Parker from taking such a pounding.

Sammy Morris: Morris continues his tour of the AFC East division by signing with the New England Patriots. Morris has played for both Buffalo and Miami and while never really exciting as a feature RB, Morris is a nice change of pace RB. With the Patriots letting Corey Dillon go, the team will make last year’s 1st round pick Laurence Maroney the starter with Morris possibly getting some time and carries. If needed, Morris can at least carry the load and be pretty good for a few games in case of an injury to Maroney.

Travis Minor: Bolting Miami for St. Louis, Minor gets reunited with former Dolphins coach Scott Linehan. Minor won’t supplant Rams RB Steven Jackson for many carries, but he does provide a decent smaller change of pace type of guy with pass catching capabilities. Minor couldn’t carry the load though if necessary as he simply isn’t big enough to hold up.

T.J. Duckett: Duckett’s never been given a chance to really be a feature RB despite having the size and skills to handle such a load. After being acquired by the Washington Redskins last season, I had hopes for Duckett and said so in some of my fantasy football podcasts. However, Duckett never really got a chance in 2006 despite the injury to Clinton Portis. Signed to a one year contract by the Detroit Lions for 2007, Duckett will compete with Tatum Bell for the top RB spot if Kevin Jones can’t come back from a bad foot injury in time for the start of the regular season. Most likely, if Jones isn’t ready by then, Duckett and Tatum Bell will split the RB duties as Bell has proved he struggles handling a full load and isn’t a powerful RB.

Marcel Shipp: While not flashy, Shipp has a workman’s attitude and re-signed with the Arizona Cardinals. Shipp doesn’t possess great skills, but will again be a decent backup to Edgerrin James in 2007. Shipp could be a goal line vulture, but has been inconsistent in that capacity.

Kenny Watson: Watson often gets lost in Cincinnati behind Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry, but he’s one of two players Bengals QB Carson Palmer named specifically as being vital to the team. The Bengals listened to their QB and Watson was re-signed to a 3 year deal. Unless Chris Perry has another injury plagued season, Watson’s value for fantasy football purposes is zilch, again proving that vital for the NFL team doesn’t mean vital for your fantasy football team.

Aveion Cason: It looked like Cason would have a chance for increased playing time at the start of free agency when he re-signed with the Detroit Lions. The unknown status of Kevin Jones gave credence to the thought Cason may get chances to touch the ball more often. But Cason’s value for 2007 took a serious nosedive when the team acquired Tatum Bell and then signed T.J. Duckett.

Adamchinobe Echemandu: The most interesting name in the NFL belongs to Echemandu. Unfortunately for Echemandu, that’s the only thing that gets him noticed at all. He re-signed with the Oakland Raiders and at best is the #3 RB behind Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes.

There were some other free agent signings at RB that I’m including here. Mostly, these names are FB’s who will have almost no value in your leagues and likely won’t show up on fantasy football rankings in 2007.

Paul Smith: Smith moved from the St. Louis Rams to the Denver Broncos.

Moran Norris: Re-signed with the San Francisco 49ers.

Justin Griffith: Left the Atlanta Falcons and signed a 3 year deal with the Oakland Raiders.

Ovie Mughelli: Mughelli left the Baltimore Ravens and replaces Griffith in Atlanta where he got a 6 year deal.

B.J. Askew: Signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after being with the New York Jets the last 4 seasons.

Josh Parry: Re-signed with the Seattle Seahawks on a two year deal.

Darian Barnes: Barnes moved on from the Miami Dolphins to the New York Jets.

Cory Schlesinger: Goes from the Detroit Lions to the Miami Dolphins.

This leaves us with who is left, and there are some intriguing names still available.

Corey Dillon: Dillon asked for, and was granted, his release from the New England Patriots. While rumor speculated that Dillon was contemplating retirement, I think it more likely he feels he still can be a feature RB in the NFL and didn’t want to be part of a rotation. I agree with him that he can be a primary RB for a team still, but at 32 years old the clock is ticking and there’s only a couple of years left in his tank. I’m a little surprised he hasn’t signed on with anyone, nor had more visits, but part of that may be he isn’t in any hurry to go through some team’s off-season mini-camps. I thought the Broncos were a good fit for him, but they signed Travis Henry and won’t be looking any more. The Buffalo Bills would also be a team in need of a feature RB and Dillon could eventually end up there. The Philadelphia Eagles have been rumored to want Dillon, but they have Brian Westbrook and it would clearly be a time share for Dillon there. Depending on where Dillon ends up will show where he is placed on 2007 fantasy football cheat sheets come August.

Michael Turner: There was a lot of buzz circulating around Turner just before free agency started. He had performed very well in his limited time behind LaDainian Tomlinson and as a young emerging RB; many believe Turner can be a feature RB. But as a restricted free agent, the San Diego Chargers have the option to match any offer Turner receives by another team. Now the Chargers tendered him a high offer, so it would cost another team a 1st and 3rd round pick if they signed him to an offer sheet and the Chargers decided not to match it. That’s just a pretty steep price to pay and it looks like Turner will likely be back in San Diego for one more season and then hit the 2008 NFL free agency period as an unrestricted free agent so he can go anywhere.

Chris Brown: In 2004, it looked like Brown was going to be a solid RB in Tennessee for many years to come. Nagging injuries and inconsistent production have brought Brown’s value down a lot. An unrestricted free agent, Brown won’t find someone willing to make him a feature RB. But he could end up in a platoon system and be very productive in that capacity. With the Titans losing Travis Henry, it’s possible Brown returns to Tennessee instead of accepting a deal below the value he feels he should command.

Ron Dayne: Kind of funny that Dayne had looked really good the last few weeks of the 2006 season for the Texans, but they made no attempt to re-sign him. Dayne has had plenty of opportunities to succeed, but has never lived up to the hype surrounding him coming out of college. Dayne will likely look for a team that needs to compliment a smaller RB with a bigger back.

Kevan Barlow: Barlow is another guy who squandered opportunities to be a feature RB and now finds himself as a journeyman who likely gets nothing better than an offer to be part of a committee on some NFL team. It was hoped that when San Francisco traded him to the New York Jets last season that it would serve as a wake up call for Barlow to start performing up to his skills, but he never really fit into the Jets offense. His next team will be his last chance to prove he’s more than just another complimentary RB incapable of handling a full load.

Correll Buckhalter: Buckhalter has a lot of desirables. Decent size, good speed, catches the ball well, and hasn’t been overworked to this point in his career. Unfortunately, the reason he hasn’t been overworked is because he’s often injured. Buckhalter has completely missed 3 of his 6 seasons in the NFL because of injuries and is deemed a high risk player because of it. Used in complimentary roles the 3 seasons he has played, he has shown excellent abilities and should sign on with some team soon in that capacity. It’s kind of surprising he hasn’t garnered more attention in the 2007 NFL free agency period, but that injury tag is hard to shake.

Stephen Davis: Davis showed he still has a little left in the tank in 2006, serving as Steven Jackson’s primary backup in St. Louis. Because of Jackson’s exceptional combination of size, speed, and toughness Davis didn’t get as many carries as some thought when he went there. Now a free agent, Davis would provide a tough inside runner who could be a goal line and short yardage specialist. Considering the struggles Joseph Addai had in those situations as a rookie, the Indianapolis Colts could be a team that would be interested and provide Davis with a place where he could actually find himself on some fantasy football rankings.

Maurice Hicks: A restricted free agent, Hicks has an offer on the table from the San Francisco 49ers. While he’s occasionally flashed some abilities, there’s nothing really special about Hicks and it’s doubtful his role could ever expand from that of a situational player. It’s most likely he returns to the 49ers and competes with Michael Robinson as the primary backup to Frank Gore.

LaBrandon Toefield: For a couple of years we’ve heard how the Jacksonville Jaguars liked Toefield and would be comfortable with him getting lots of playing time, but every year it never materializes. Toefield has good size and power, but clearly needs a new start somewhere. Because he’s never really been given much of a chance it’s unknown whether Toefield can be someone who would find himself on the fantasy football rankings at the RB position. Considering the Philadelphia Eagles haven’t tried to re-sign Correll Buckhalter, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Eagles settled on Toefield as the bigger RB to compliment and backup Brian Westbrook.

Tony Fisher: Fisher is a RB who hasn’t played up to his big size and speed. He’s also had many injury problems throughout his career. In 2006, his only one with the St. Louis Rams, Fisher tore up his knee and it’s highly questionable he’ll be ready for the start of training camps. I’d be very surprised if he signs on anywhere in 2007, and it could be that his career is over.

Derrick Blaylock: Blaylock is a prime example of a system RB. When he was backing up Priest Holmes in Kansas City a few years ago, Blaylock put up great numbers when called upon to fill in. In 2005 he signed as a free agent with the New York Jets, but they have released him after two very disappointing seasons. A smaller RB with good hands and speed, Blaylock is at best a complimentary RB, and not worthy of much consideration in fantasy football.

James Mungro: Mungro tore up his knee during the preseason last year and went on injured reserve. Before that, it was expected that he would have a role in the Colts offense while they groomed Joseph Addai slowly. Depending on how his rehab goes, we may here about Mungro in 2007, but that’s a big if. I’d speculate that he’ll likely sign a deal with the Colts and they’ll give him a chance to show in training camp if he’s able to resume his backup duties.

Artose Pinner: Nearly invisible the first couple of season’s in the league with the Detroit Lions, Pinner moved on to the Minnesota Vikings last season and is best known for one huge game he had against his former team. It amazed everyone as it came from out of no where and right after it, while speculation was that Pinner would get an increased role, the Vikings put him back on the bench. A restricted free agent, Pinner would cost another team a 4th round pick to sign away from Minnesota. I would think though after his big showing, the Vikings would want him back as the primary backup and change of pace to Chester Taylor.

There are numerous other RB’s available still in the 2007 NFL free agent market. But realistically, none of them stand more than a sliver of a chance to get noticed at all on the 2007 fantasy football projections. Here is a list of them with the team they for in 2006 and whether they are an unrestricted free agent (UFA- meaning they can go anywhere they want and their former team has no rights on them) or a restricted free agent (RFA- meaning their former team has the right to match any offer they receive or receive compensation from whichever other team signs them):

UFA’s: Arlen Harris (Lions); Verron Haynes (Steelers); Reno Mahe (Eagles); Daimon Shelton (Bills); Fred McCrary (Falcons); Jamal Robertson (Falcons); Patrick Pass (Patriots); Josh Scobey (Seahawks); Dee Brown (Chiefs); Ronnie Cruz (Chiefs); Chad Morton (Giants); Fred McAfee (Saints); Chris Hetherington (49ers); Nick Luchey (Ravens); James Hodgins (Jets)

RFA’s: ReShard Lee (Raiders); Cecil Sapp (Broncos); Kyle Johnson (Broncos); Derrick Ward (Giants); Shaud Williams (Bills); Vonta Leach (Texans)

Russ Bliss is Fantasy Football Starters.com's exclusive fantasy football expert, a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, and for 11 years has been the radio host of "The Red Zone, Talking Fantasy Football and the NFL," in Phoenix, Arizona.

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