Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice

The WAY Early Top 10 Fantasy RBs 2007 -- By Russ Bliss

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In 2006, 10 RBs scored 10 or more TDs. 9 had more than a combined 1,500 yards. Identifying who those players are likely to be in 2007 now is not only good preparation, but is also likely to spark lively debate on fantasy football message boards and keep us all entertained for a while. With that, let me throw my 2 cents worth in on the topic of top RBs for next year.

1) LaDainian Tomlinson: In the average fantasy football draft in 2006, LT was the 3rd overall pick after Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson. I had LT pegged as my #2 RB going into 2006 in my fantasy football rankings and as I wrote at the time: “If you play in a league where you get a point per reception, LT is probably the first guy to take. He only caught 51 passes last year, and only 53 the year before, but his 5 year average is 68. Figuring that new QB Phillip Rivers won’t hesitate to take advantage of LT’s abilities as a safety valve and you have to expect LT is good for at least that average in 2006. Some are concerned that with a new QB, LT may not face more 8 man fronts, and that’s probably true, but I point out that in 2002 and 2003 (when Drew Brees was being maligned for his poor QB performances, thusly prompting the Chargers to get Rivers) LT had over 1,600 rushing yards both seasons, caught a combined 179 passes, and put up his two best single season yardage totals (2,172 and 2,370) of his career. And, oh yeah, LT scored 15 and 17 total TDs in those seasons. Looking at the last 4 seasons, I can’t imagine LT not reaching his average from them (around 2,000 combined yards and 17-18 TDs). I’ll take it to the bank knowing they could even be better than that.” Just how much better I didn’t have a clue. 31 total TDs (not including 2 passing TDs) shattered the record Shaun Alexander set last year. LT led the NFL in rushing yards with 1,815. His 508 receiving yards (on 56 receptions) was 5th best amongst RBs. 10 games with 2 or more TDs, six of those with 3 or more! Sure, there is a concern of jumping on the bandwagon of a player who finishes the prior season as the #1 guy, but considering that LT has finished in the top 4 fantasy football RBs each of the last 5 years, and I’m not too afraid of a fantasy football projection of LT #1.

2) Larry Johnson: Hard to imagine that 1,789 rushing yards, 410 receiving yards, and 19 total TDs is considered a bit disappointing, but many LJ owners felt that way. A 3 game stretch from week 13-15 where LJ didn’t score a single TD soured many who had him on their fantasy football rosters. But the fact remains he rushed for the second most yards, carried the ball a new NFL record 416 times, rushed for 100 yards or more in 11 games, and did it despite having offensive line and QB issues most the season. LJ has the ability to dominate and be the top fantasy football RB. But you have to wonder if he can carry such a load for a second season in a row, let alone an extended period of time in a career. In the playoff game vs. Indianapolis, you have to wonder if it was exhaustion, or the aforementioned problems on the offensive line and in the passing game, that led to such a poor performance against the league’s 32nd ranked run defense. No matter, he’ll have an off-season to get rested and the Chiefs are likely to improve their offensive line in 2007, so Johnson is a solid choice for an early rank of #2 RB for fantasy football rankings.

3) Steven Jackson: Jackson finished the 2006 season 5th in rushing yards with 1,528, and first among RBs in receptions (with 90) and receiving yards (806). He scored a combined 16 TDs on the season and proved he could stay healthy and handle the load of being a feature RB every game. Jackson was a monster the last 4 weeks of 2006 amassing 684 combined yards and scoring 10 TDs. Those are the weeks you want to be seeing that type of fantasy football help. After toiling in the previous coaching staff’s system, it was refreshing to see what happened when a new coach came in and realized he had a stud RB and actually gave him the football. Jackson had 6 games with over 100 yards rushing, 2 games with over 100 yards receiving, and 10 games with at least 1 TD. Considering the Rams had a myriad of injuries on their OL in 2006, Jackson should be a stud RB next year and probably for years to come.

4) Frank Gore: Gore was nothing short of spectacular for fantasy owners who were smart enough to draft him. Gore put up 1,695 rushing yards (which ranked 3rd in the league behind LT and LJ). He also contributed 61 receptions for 485 receiving yards, showing he could catch the ball very effectively. 9 games with over 100 rushing yards and 1 with over 200 shows that he is completely over the 2 torn ACL injuries he had back in college. His 5.4 yards per carry average was highest amongst all RBs with 250 or more rushing attempts. And he did all this with opponents knowing they had to focus more on stopping Gore than second year QB Alex Smith. Gore was a frequent topic of discussion on our fantasy football podcasts in 2006 as both a sleeper before the season, and as an emerging force early on. With Alex Smith maturing, and Gore showing he’s capable of being a feature RB, he will easily be a top 10 RB on fantasy football cheat sheets in 2007.

5) Shaun Alexander: The big concern is that Alexander will be the dreaded 30 years old when the 2007 season starts up, and he is coming off a disappointing 2006 season. But let’s be realistic, he suffered a foot injury that caused him to miss 6 games. Xander played in 10 games and was considered a disappointing fantasy performer. But if you take his numbers (896 rushing yards and 7 TDs) and pro-rate them for a full 16 game season, you get 1,433 yards and 11 TDs. These would be great numbers for almost any other RB; numbers that you could plan your fantasy football strategy around every week. And one of the best things about Alexander is that because he had the disappointing season and because he was drafted so high in 2006 fantasy football drafts, it’s likely he slides a bit more than the 5th RB on the 2007 pre-draft rankings as owners will be wary of him. While Xander may be 30, he has only been a feature RB for 6 years and until 2006 had never missed a game. With a full off-season to recover, Xander will come back and be ready to post 1400+ yards and 11+ TDs in 2007.

6) Joseph Addai: Everyone knows I’ve been on Addai’s bandwagon since the Colts drafted him. In my 2006 rookie fantasy football player rankings I projected Addai to be the top rookie fantasy RB. Pretty much a complete RB in terms of game, but not a special RB in terms of athletic skills, Addai will likely take over as the Colts feature RB in 2007. Dominic Rhodes is an unrestricted free agent going into the off-season and unless he gets re-signed by the team Addai will have the job all to himself. Even if the Colts do bring Rhodes back, it’s still a high probability that Addai becomes the primary ball carrier. Despite the time share with Rhodes in 2006, Addai rushed for 1,081 yards, caught 40 passes for another 325 yards, and scored 8 TDs. Now some will point out that he had 4 of those TDs in one game, but I reply that was the ONLY game where he touched the ball over 25 times. In 7 games last year he had 15 combined touches or fewer. He was the feature RB that one game and shared virtually no carries with Rhodes (unlike virtually every other game). Addai had 2 games with over 100 rushing yards and averaged 4.8 yards per carry, all despite having that near equal split with Rhodes. If you take just half of Rhodes numbers from 2006 and gave them to Addai, he would have had 1,400 rushing yards, 450 receiving yards on 58 receptions, and scored 11 TDs. That’s pretty much about the baseline I expect from Addai in 2007. And those are top 10 fantasy RB numbers.

7) Rudi Johnson: Not a sexy name, and he didn’t have any huge games in 2006, but Johnson is a classic example of a guy who quietly goes about putting up solid fantasy production but doesn’t get the credit he deserves. 1,309 rushing yards, 12 TDs, 5 games with more than 100 yards rushing, and 10 games with at least 1 TD shows the type of consistent fantasy production you get with Rudi week in and week out. There’s no reason to think he’ll slip in 2007. The only concern at all is that in 2006 Chris Perry was hindered by injury and only played in 6 games. Even then, he wasn’t involved like he had been in 2005, so there is a chance a healthy Perry steals some of Rudi’s time. But Perry was healthy and did cut into Johnson’s time in 2005 and Johnson had 1400 yards and 12 TDs that season, so we know Rudi can put up his numbers even with Perry more involved. Rudi Johnson is the blue collar equivalent of a top 10 fantasy football RB.

8) Maurice Jones-Drew: Here’s a guy I have to say I was way wrong about. In my rookie RB write-ups back in May, I had stated that Drew was: “Very fast and a capable pass catcher, Drew is only 5’6” and lacks the bulk to be an every down RB in the NFL. Was very productive at UCLA and while he may not be able to be a feature RB, he certainly has the explosiveness necessary to warrant time in the offense. Is also a solid return specialist and may make his primary living doing that in the NFL.” I also stated something would have to happen for Drew to make any significant impact in 2006. Well, something did happen: Greg Jones tore his ACL the last week of August and opened the door for Drew to get more playing time. Now Drew split time with Fred Taylor throughout 2006, but despite that he still had 3 games with over 100 yards rushing, totaling 941 rushing yards, another 436 receiving, and scored a total of 15 TDs. He scored a TD in 12 games despite only starting 1. With Taylor likely to be gone from Jacksonville in 2007, Drew is a great candidate to take over. Greg Jones will be coming back from his injury, but after we saw in 2006 I can’t imagine Jones having a bigger role than spelling Drew occasionally and getting the short yardage carries. A full time Drew, providing he can withstand the pounding, which is a concern still, is a scary thought and more than a good bet for a top 10 fantasy ranking at RB.

9) Willie Parker: Parker proved that despite his lack of size, he could be a feature RB in the NFL. Parker had 337 rushing attempts for 1.494 yards, caught another 31 passes for 222 yards and scored 16 total TDs in 2006. He had 7 games with over 100 rushing yards, and 2 of those he had over 200. However, he did have 5 games with fewer than 50 rushing yards, so he does come with the tag of being inconsistent. But he scored at least 1 TD in 10 games and given the fact he has proved he can carry the load without breaking down, there’s no reason to think the Steelers won’t ride him again in 2007. With the retirement of Bill Cowher, it remains to be seen how Parker will be used by a new coaching staff, but it doesn’t take a genius to look a Parker and realize he is the real deal. If not for the possibility of the tweaking of the only offensive system Parker has been a part of in his short NFL career, he likely would rank higher on this list.

10) Kevin Jones: Here’s my big risk pick in this list. And the reason I list him when probably everyone else won’t, is that I don’t want you to forget about Jones. All too often a player gets injured during the season and then during the off-season, none of the fantasy football prognosticators will mention him (at least not until they can feel safe about his chances for playing). Jones suffered a bad foot injury and there is concern that he may not be ready for the start of the NFL fantasy football 2007 season. But there’s still a lot of time before we get any where close to any one’s fantasy football draft, so I’m going to throw out the games Jones missed because of injury, or was limited in because of injuries (which was 5) and look at what he did in the other 11. 177 rushing attempts, 681 rushing yards, 61 receptions (which would have put him on pace for 89 for the season), 520 receiving yards, and 8 TDs. As is usual in a Mike Martz offense, Jones only had 2 games with over 20 rushing attempts, but he was catching a lot of passes. Now, assuming that he can be healthy for the start of the season, there are two scenarios that can play out for Jones in 2007. In one, Martz returns as the offensive coordinator and Jones continues to have the decent rushing totals with the great receiving totals, or a new offensive system gets put in place and Jones gets used more as a feature RB. In either case, again providing he is healthy; Jones stands an excellent chance of being a 1400+ combined yards 10+ TD guy in 2007.

Russ Bliss is Fantasy Football Starters.com's exclusive fantasy football expert, a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, and for 11 years has been the radio host of "The Red Zone, Talking Fantasy Football and the NFL," in Phoenix, Arizona.

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