Fantasy News and Notes 11-27-13:

 

Quarterbacks

 

As expected, Matt Flynn will start for the Packers on Thanksgiving Day. Scott Tolzien will be the backup. Aaron Rodgers was ruled OUT and will try to make it back in week 14.

 

Peyton Manning sat out practice today, but it was mainly just a day of rest. Manning will be fine for week 13.

 

 

Running Backs

 

Adrian Peterson sat out practice today to rest his sore groin. He isn't believed to be in any danger of missing week 13. He certainly ran plenty well enough despite the injury in week 12.

 

Zac Stacy sat out practice today because of his concussion. Stacy is in a race against time to get through the league's concussion protocols and be cleared to play by Sunday. If he doesn't play, Benny Cunningham would start for St. Louis.

 

Knowshon Moreno missed practice with his ankle injury. It's too early in the week to know if Moreno will be able to play this week or not.

 

Matt Forte sat out practice today with his hyperextended knee injury. While the injury is not believed to be serious enough to put him in jeopardy of missing week 13, it's too early in the week to really know for sure. Grabbing Michael Bush for the insurance is a sounding like a smart move.

 

Ryan Mathews sat out practice today with his hamstring injury and he is uncertain to play week 13. Don't be surprised if he comes down to being a game time decision on Sunday.

 

Despite being listed as Questionable for tomorrow's game, Darren McFadden is expected to play. But he's only supposed to play in a backup or change of pace role to new Raiders starter Rashad Jennings.

 

Things might be looking up for Chris Ivory of the Jets. He was listed as limited in practice today despite an ankle injury that was considered to be a near lock to make him miss week 13. It's still early in the week and he's clearly not 100%, but there's a chance he may be able to play this week after all.

 

The Carolina Panthers held all 3 of DeAngelo Williams (quad), Jonathan Stewart (ankle), and Mike Tolbert (leg) out of practice today. The only one who really is in any danger of missing week 13 though is Tolbert. Tolbert's injury was apparent at the end of the game in week 12 whereas neither Williams nor Stewart seemed to really have any issue.

 

Green Bay placed Johnathan Franklin on injured reserve today because of the concussion he suffered week 12. Franklin is barely worth holding onto even in dynasty leagues unless you have him handcuffed to Eddie Lacy.

 

 

Wide Receivers

 

Denarius Moore has been ruled OUT for tomorrow's game because of his shoulder injury. Andre Holmes to start again in his place.

 

Aaron Dobson was held out of practice today with a listed foot injury. This may explain the big zero he had in the boxscore week 12. His status for week 13 is uncertain.

 

Greg Jennings sat out practice today because of his Achilles injury. He played through it week 12 and probably is just getting a day of rest, but that's just speculation. Jennings hasn't been fantasy relevant for over a month.

 

Jeremy Kerley was able to get in a limited practice but his status for week 13 is still very uncertain because of his dislocated elbow injury he suffered a few weeks back.

 

Hakeem Nicks got in a limited practice today despite having an abdominal injury that made him miss week 12. As long as Nicks can practice each day without a setback I would expect him to play week 13.

 

Amongst WR's who were either held out of practice or were limited but are expected to be fine to play week 13, the list includes Seattle's Percy Harvin (hip), Arizona's Michael Floyd (shoulder), Tennessee's Kendall Wright (ankle), Jacksonville's duo of Cecil Shorts (groin) and Mike Brown (shoulder),

 

 

Tight Ends

 

Julius Thomas took part in practice today and is tentatively expected to play week 13.

 

Antonio Gates missed practice today to rest up a sore hamstring. It's not believed to be serious though and he should be okay for week 13.

 

Tony Gonzalez was limited because of the toe injury he's been playing through the last couple of weeks. He'll be fine for week 13.

 

Washington is tentatively expected to have Jordan Reed back this week. Reed missed week 12 with a concussion. Reed took part in a limited practice today and as long as he continues to pass the concussion tests and suffer no setbacks, he should be okay for week 13.  

 

I feel like many NFL teams at this time of year: I'm not mathematically eliminated from my goal, but the realistic chance is a fantasy.

 

Week 12 provided more uninspiring results. 7-6-1 leaves a bitter taste and brings to me to 108-67-1 for the season. With only 5 weeks left in the regular season, there are 80 games left to be played. In order for me to get to the annual goal of 180 correct, I would need to go an insanely improbably 72-8 to close out the season. Not impossible, but only slightly better than the chance of winning the lottery given how my picks have gone so far this season.

 

But hope is not lost yet and therefore I continue to give it an effort. With Thanksgiving being tomorrow I am a day earlier than normal. Here are my week 13 NFL Game Predictions:

 

Detroit 34, Green Bay 31

Dallas 24, Oakland 20

Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 19

Philadelphia 24, Arizona 20

Chicago 31, Minnesota 27

Cleveland 17, Jacksonville 14

NY Jets 21, Miami 17

New England 31, Houston 21

Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 17

Indianapolis 24, Tennessee 19

Buffalo 21, Atlanta 14

San Francisco 20, St. Louis 16

Cincinnati 24, San Diego 21

Denver 27, Kansas City 20

NY Giants 24, Washington 21

New Orleans 21, Seattle 17

 

There you have them: my Week 13 NFL game picks.

 

I got back on track in the Survival Pool lock last week when New Orleans held on to beat Atlanta. However that only means I am now 8-4 in "locks" which got me bounced a while ago even in second chance leagues. Here are the picks and results each week:

 

Week 1 (W; 21-17) Indianapolis over Oakland

Week 2 (L; 30-33) Philadelphia over San Diego

Week 3 (W; 45-17) Seattle over Jacksonville

Week 4 (W; 52-20) Denver over Philadelphia

Week 5 (W; 34-20) St. Louis over Jacksonville

Week 6 (W; 24-7) Kansas City over Oakland

Week 7 (L; 27-30) New England over NY Jets

Week 8 (W; 42-10) San Francisco over Jacksonville

Week 9 (W; 27-23) Dallas over Minnesota

Week 10 (L; 27-29) Tennessee over Jacksonville

Week 11 (L; 23-28) Houston over Oakland

Week 12 (W; 17-13) New Orleans over Atlanta

 

Pickings are fairly slim for a lock and as you can see from my predicted scores, I am not expecting any blowouts. In cases like this, I tend to go back to a usually good formula: look for a home team playing a weak opponent that is not a division rival. Going outside of conference is also preferable. There is one game that meets the criteria, and while I am not confident in the team's offense, it should be good enough. I really wish the game was being played at their regular stadium though and not in Toronto, but those are the breaks.

 

My Survivor Pool Lock for Week 13 is: the Buffalo Bills over the Atlanta Falcons.

 

Best of luck to everyone with your picks. And please have a very safe and Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Fantasy News and Notes 11-26-13:

 

Quarterbacks

 

Expect Matt Flynn to start for the Packers on Thanksgiving Day against Detroit. Aaron Rodgers was able to take a very limited part in practice today, but it sounds like he's aiming for a week 14 return. Flynn took over for ineffective Scott Tolzien this past Sunday and almost led the Packers to a come from behind victory. Flynn should never leave Green Bay again.

 

As expected, Nick Foles remains the Eagles starting QB even though Michael Vick is fully recovered from his hamstring injury. Vick moves forward as the backup to Foles.

 

Despite some weekend reports that said Jay Cutler is not going to play again in the regular season because of his ankle injury, Cutler himself has said he is aiming for a week 14 return. We'll see how it goes next week but for this week, it will be Josh McCown under center for Chicago again.

 

Jason Campbell suffered a concussion and he is considered doubtful for week 13. Tentatively expect Brandon Weeden to start for Cleveland this week.

 

Minnesota will stay with Christian Ponder as their starting QB week 13. I expect it will take a monumental collapse by Ponder for Josh Freeman to get another crack at starting before this season is out. That was $3 million well spent by the Vikings.

 

Oakland is sticking with Matt McGloin as their starting QB over Terrelle Pryor.

 

Houston is sticking with Case Keenum as their starting QB over Matt Schaub.

 

 

Running Backs

 

Zac Stacy suffered a concussion this past weekend or he would have run roughshod over the Bears as he had 87 yards and a TD before exiting at halftime. His status for week 13 is uncertain. If he can't play, Benny Cunningham would likely start in his place and is a must have handcuff for Stacy owners. Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson would battle it out to pick up scraps.

 

Knowshon Moreno suffered a foot injury Sunday night and his status for week 13 is uncertain. Moreno was able to finish out the game but was on crutches afterward. If he can't go, I'd expect Montee Ball to be forgiven for his fumble and be the primary RB with C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman also getting playing time. Likely the Broncos would go with a hot hand approach if Moreno doesn't play.

 

Darren McFadden is expected to play Thanksgiving Day for the Raiders, but the current word is that he would be the change of pace RB to Rashad Jennings. Jennings still flirts with RB2 value while McFadden would be more like a RB3 for fantasy purposes.

 

Despite suffering a hyperextended knee injury Sunday, Matt Forte is expected to be okay for week 13. Barring any surprise bad news during the week, you should be able to count on Forte playing as he normally would this week. Those concerned should grab Michael Bush for the insurance.

 

Ryan Mathews aggravated a hamstring injury he suffered a few weeks back on Sunday. His status for week 13 is very uncertain. If he can't play, Danny Woodhead would likely be the primary RB with Ronnie Brown being worked in some on rushing downs. It's very doubtful that Woodhead is available on anyone's free agent wire but if he is he needs to be owned. Brown would possibly flirt with RB3/4 value, but I wouldn't expect much more from him.

 

Daniel Thomas suffered an ankle injury and reports are that it could be serious enough for him to miss the remainder of the regular season. Miami may hold off on putting him on injured reserve as they desperate cling to the illusion they have a chance at making the playoffs, but once that fantasy evaporates, you can expect them to shut down Thomas. Lamar Miller will likely get a chance to be a true featured RB, but if he continues to struggle, we'll likely see rookie Mike Gillislee grab some carries. Gillislee is an intriguing add for the RB desperate.

 

The Jets are likely to be without Chris Ivory for at least one game, and possibly more because of an ankle injury suffered week 12. Ivory was reportedly having an MRI done Monday, but no results have been announced yet and the exact nature of the injury is currently unknown. But I would plan on sitting Ivory this week and expect Bilal Powell to handle the majority of the RB duties for the Jets this week. Alex Green likely would be active as his backup, but Green holds little chance for value.

 

No telling who will be the Patriots primary rushing RB week 13. Stevan Ridley got in the doghouse for fumbling Sunday night. LeGarrette Blount joined him a few plays later. Brandon Bolden, who was inactive in week 11 but surprisingly active this past week, took over and performed pretty well. I would expect a slight uptick in carries for Shane Vereen, but I would expect him to top out around 15 at most leaving someone to pick up the slack. My guess is that it would be Bolden given first crack this week, but the Patriots may give Ridley another chance. It's a situation to avoid as it's impossible to say which of Bolden, Ridley, or Blount will be the best bet. Vereen is the only one who can be counted on as a reliable fantasy RB2.

 

Ben Tate is expected to remain the Texans starting RB despite sitting much of this past weekend. Backup Dennis Johnson performed well and probably has at least made this more of a timeshare though than it has been in recent weeks. Tate is still the preferred fantasy option. Johnson makes a nice handcuff though for Tate owners.

 

Eddie Lacy was seen on the sidelines after returning from the locker room during the overtime period in this past weekend's game for the Packers. But it wasn't injury related. Rather, Lacy is an asthmatic and apparently it flared up on him. Lacy will be fine for week 13. Fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin suffered a concussion and he is not expected to play.

 

Jacksonville backup Justin Forsett broke his foot week 12 and his season likely is over. Jordan Todman is the clear top backup to Maurice Jones-Drew going forward.

 

 

Wide Receivers

 

San Francisco activated Michael Crabtree off the PUP list earlier today. Crabtree is expected to play in week 13 but he'll be on a limited snap count in his first action since tearing an Achilles tendon back in May. I'd rather see him get through the game and see how he looks before trusting him in a fantasy starting lineup.

 

Oakland is expected to be without Denarius Moore again this week because of his shoulder injury. Teammate Rod Streater is expected to be fine despite having suffered a minor hip injury week 12. Andre Holmes will start again in place of Moore.

 

Buffalo expects to have both Steve Johnson and Robert Woods back for week 13. The bye week helped both players heal up their respective injuries. But I still expect that Marquise Goodwin is going to get worked in quite a bit at Woods expense this week. The speedy rookie has proven to be the playmaker neither Johnson nor Woods is.

 

After being a somewhat surprising inactive week 12, it's unknown if Hakeem Nicks will play week 13 or not. Nicks has an abdominal injury and the Giants haven't said whether they plan on having him play this week or not. Nicks missing game action just increases Reuben Randle's fantasy value.

 

San Diego's Eddie Royal suffered a chest injury this past weekend and was unable to finish the game. His status for week 13 is uncertain.

 

 

Tight Ends

 

After missing Sunday night's game with a knee injury, Julius Thomas is tentatively expected to return ad play week 13 for Denver.

 

Oakland's Mychal Rivera suffered a concussion week 12 but he's reportedly already gone through all of the league's concussion protocols and is expected to play on Thanksgiving Day. I think that may be the fastest recovery from a concussion in the NFL ever.

 

Green Bay's Brandon Bostick isn't so luck though and he is expected to miss Thursday's game because of the concussion he suffered. Andrew Quarless will handle an increased work load and Ryan Taylor may get mixed in some as well.

 

Tampa Bay has lost Tom Crabtree for the season with a torn triceps. This shouldn't affect anyone's fantasy team though.

 

Baltimore is hopeful that Dennis Pitta will be able to return in week 14. Pitta's been out since fracturing his hip in preseason. Those who know they're making their playoffs and are desperate at TE could take a flier here as Pitta was expected to be a top 7 fantasy TE before the injury.

 

2013 Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game

 

Thru Week 12

 

 

Remember the generic formula:
 
*-Total Yards allowed divided by 10 (representing 1 point for every 10 rushing yards allowed)

*-Rushing TD's allowed multiplied by 6 (representing 6 points for every TD allowed)

*-Add the two totals together and divide by number of games played

 

2013 Receiving Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game

 

Thru Week 12

 

 

Remember the generic formula:

*-Total Yards allowed divided by 10 (representing 1 point for every 10 receiving yards allowed)

*-Receiving TD's allowed multiplied by 6 (representing 6 points for every TD allowed)

*-Add the two totals together and divide by number of games played

 

AFC EAST

 

Buffalo: It's expected that the bye in week 12 will allow both normal starting WR's (Steve Johnson and Robert Woods) enough rest so they both return and can play week 13. However, don't be surprised if Woods starts losing reps in 2 WR sets to Buffalo's other rookie, Marquise Goodwin. Goodwin brings an element of speed that none of the other Bills WR's possess and I expect his playing time will grow in these last 5 weeks.

 

Miami: With Center Mike Pouncey Doubtful with what's being called food poisoning, the Dolphins will now be without 3 starters on their offensive line as the Jonathan Martin/Richie Incognito saga drags on another week. This doesn't bode well for either RB (Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas) and it also doesn't bode well for QB Ryan Tannehill's chances of staying upright against an aggressive Panthers pass rush. At least TE Charles Clay benefits as he's turned into a solid checkdown option.

 

New England: Shane Vereen's return last week made Brandon Bolden inactive. Likely it will be that way again. Vereen wasn't limited at all or eased back in, so he is fine to consider as a potential fantasy play any given week. In this week, I think Vereen a strong fantasy RB2 as I expect the Patriots/Broncos game will be a passing affair. Danny Amendola is Probable and while limited with his groin injury in practices, he's fine for games. Rob Gronkowski is also Probable and appears to be fine despite his listed back, arm, and hamstring injuries.

 

New York Jets: WR Jeremy Kerley has been downgraded from Doubtful to OUT for week 12 because of his dislocated elbow injury. With Stephen Hill speculated to have been demoted from the starting lineup because of poor play, David Nelson figures to start opposite Santonio Holmes. Hill will be worked in as the #3 or #4 WR depending on how much the team trusts Greg Salas. While it was nice to see Chris Ivory do well last week, don't be surprised if this week turns out to be a Bilal Powell week instead. The Ravens have allowed a league fewest 1 rushing TD on the season to date. Geno Smith looks to bounce back after what was the worst QB performance of the season so far in week 11.

 

AFC NORTH

 

Baltimore: Ray Rice was spotted in a box score last week and he actually did well. Let's hope that he can make it two weeks in a row despite the fact he faces a Jets run defense that allows on average the fewest rushing yards per game to their opponents and ranks 4th in fantasy run defense overall. It won't be easy, but at least we know Rice still has some game left in him despite the terrible season he's had so far. WR Marlon Brown is Probable and will return to game action after sitting out last week to rest up a knee injury.

 

Cincinnati: Whereas at one point it was looking like Marvin Jones was separating himself from the other WR's to be the starter opposite of A.J. Green he hasn't been producing and it now looks like a WR2 by committee between Jones and Mohamed Sanu. With Andrew Hawkins having returned and taking over as the #3 WR, neither Jones nor Sanu can be trusted as whichever one is not in favor in a given week will be the team's #4 WR.

 

Cleveland: I expect we're going to start seeing a lot more of Chris Ogbonnaya as a primary RB over Willis McGahee. McGahee is barely watchable and while Ogbonnaya is by no means a special talent, he always runs hard, is very underrated as a receiving RB, and is a whole lot younger. I think this will finally be the week where both Ogbonnaya and Fozzy Whitaker push McGahee down to being just a veteran backup.

 

Pittsburgh: WR Emmanuel Sanders is Probable and will play without issue despite having suffered what was originally thought to be a fairly serious foot injury last week. Rookie Markus Wheaton looks to continue pushing Jerricho Cotchery for the #3 WR spot. Le'Veon Bell hasn't lit up the box score but has been a consistent yardage producer both running and receiving and has stepped into every week solid fantasy RB2 territory.  

 

AFC SOUTH

 

Houston: Case Keenum will start over Matt Schaub. There's been no good explanation of why Keenum was benched last week in favor of Schaub. Keenum's numbers weren't that bad and neither was his play. If Houston wanted to blame someone for their woes, they should have benched their defense for allowing an undrafted rookie QB making his first career start throw for 3 TD's and no picks. Keenum may be on a short leash than originally thought, but his presence is best for the fantasy value of Andre Johnson and the rest of the skill position players. Look for Ben Tate to be big this week against a Jaguars run defense that still ranks last in yards, TD's, and fantasy points allowed despite holding the Cardinals to practically nothing on the ground last week.  

 

Indianapolis: Although Trent Richardson is listed as Questionable, he is fully expected to play despite a calf injury. Doesn't matter though as he has been clearly out-played by Donald Brown and Brown is a low end fantasy RB2 while Richardson is barely a consideration as a RB3 or flex. The Colts say the timeshare will remain as it has been, but I expect a "hot hand" approach. For what it's worth, Brown has the hot hand over Richardson almost every week. Watch TE Coby Fleener have a great week as the Cardinals are the worst team in the league at defending opposing TE's.  

 

Jacksonville: Jacksonville WR's are dropping like flies. Stephen Burton is out with a concussion; Stephen Williams was placed on injured reserve this week because of an Achilles injury. Mike Brown is Questionable with a shoulder sprain, but he is likely to be active because of the lack of WR's the Jags have. Cecil Shorts will start despite his lingering nagging groin injury; Ace Sanders will man the slot; Kerry Taylor likely will play at least some in the 2 WR sets, if not most of them. This season can't end soon enough for this team and the organization gives the impression that they're just holding their breaths that they don't accidentally win another game and potentially lose out on the top pick of the draft. .  

 

Tennessee: WR Damien Williams is OUT again with his hip injury. His being out hasn't translated into much game action for Kenny Britt though and likely won't again this week. Britt has completely fallen off the charts. Rookie Justin Hunter is Probable after passing his concussion tests. With the Raiders being a surprisingly strong run defense this season, look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to have to move the ball through the air. TE Delanie Walker has scored a TD in 3 of the last 4 games and could be a strong fantasy TE1 play this week.

 

AFC WEST

 

Denver: Wes Welker has passed all concussion tests and will play Sunday night. The news is more uncertain for TE Julius Thomas though as he is Questionable and considered a game time decision because of a knee injury suffered week 11. I expect Thomas to be active, but very likely to be very limited to red zone duties. It's uncertain whether there is one TE among Jacob Tamme, Joel Dreessen, and Virgil Green who would step up if Thomas were to miss the game, or if it would be a TE by committee. Probable a TEBC is most likely. I get the feeling this is going to be a big week for Eric Decker. He's been mediocre in the last 4 games and is due. Plus, you have to figure the Patriots are going to do everything they can to make sure Welker doesn't beat them, and with Demaryius Thomas having gone off the last couple of games, it's likely Decker will be the one left to beat them most. Calling my shot here: Decker will be a top 3 fantasy WR this week.

 

Kansas City: After scoring at least 1 TD in every game the first seven games of the season, Jamaal Charles has not seen the end zone in any of the last 3. I get a strong sense that will change this week against a Chargers run defense that allows the second most yards per rush attempt. WR Kyle Williams was placed on injured reserve this week with a knee injury. Williams had recently been claimed off waivers from San Francisco. Dexter McCluster has been a nice ppr flex option of late getting quite a few targets. Too bad he lacks real playmaking skills though.

 

Oakland: Matt McGloin will start again this week after a surprisingly strong first career start last week where he threw 3 TD's and no picks in an upset win at Houston. It's a tough test this week against a Titans pass defense that has allowed a league fewest 7 passing TD's all season, but if McGloin has another good game, it's almost a sure bet that he will usurp Terrelle Pryor as the Raiders starting QB the remainder of the season. Pryor is expected to be active this week as McGloin's backup, although he is officially listed as Questionable with his knee injury. Darren McFadden is OUT again because of his hamstring injury and Rashad Jennings gets to e the featured RB in a favorable matchup. Even if McFadden ever gets healthy, it's likely it would be an even split between him and Jennings. WR Denarius Moore is OUT with a shoulder injury. Andre Holmes and Brice Butler will likely split time opposite Rod Streater in his place.

 

San Diego: Eddie Royal is providing a weekly feeling of déjà vu by not practicing, being listed as Questionable, and then playing without looking like anything's wrong come game time. This is the 4th consecutive week that where the first two things have happened and I fully expect the trifecta to happen. WR's Keenan Allen and Vincent Brown are both Probable and both will be fine. Allen is lucky to have avoided a more serious knee injury. This week could be the week where Philip Rivers looks a lot more like the QB we've seen the last 2 seasons instead of the one who's been a big pleasant surprise this season. After looking pedestrian against Denver last week, I expect the Chiefs defense at home is going to make an example of Rivers. You may want to find another QB to start in his place.

 

NFC EAST

 

Dallas: Miles Austin is Probable and will return and play week 12. His return pushes Terrence Williams down to being the #3 WR and Cole Beasley slides to #4. But it may not be for long as Austin's hamstring issues are legendary for recurrence and I doubt he bucks that trend in 2013.

 

New York Giants: Hakeem Nicks is expected to start despite an abdominal injury that has him Questionable on the injury report. Given that Nicks has been a huge disappointment this season it's hard to really trust him as a fantasy starter even with a great matchup. Reuben Randle has been the far superior WR more weeks than him and Randle makes the better play this week to me. Brandon Jacobs is tentatively expected to play despite being Questionable with his chronic knee issue. If he isn't able to handle his usual short yardage and goal line duties behind featured RB Andre Brown, Peyton Hillis (who was inactive last week) likely would be active and handle those duties in his place. I'm not even sure why the Giants are doing that as short yardage and goal line duties were supposed to be Brown's duties behind David Wilson at the start of the season. Simply put, the Giants do themselves a huge disservice taking Brown off the field for anything more than an occasional breather.

 

Philadelphia: Even though Michael Vick is healthy enough to return to game action, the Eagles are going to stick with Nick Foles as their starting QB. Gotta give Vick credit for saying all the right things and endorsing Foles as the starter over himself. Not every QB takes demotion as graciously.

 

Washington: TE Jordan Reed has been ruled OUT for Monday night because of his concussion. Logan Paulsen is likely to be the starting TE and Fred Davis will likely be active for the first time in several weeks and shuffle in some as a receiving TE. Hard to trust either one though as a suitable replacement for Reed. RB Darrel Young is Questionable with a hamstring injury and he is uncertain to play. WR Leonard Hankerson was placed on injured reserve during the week with two ligament tears in his knee. Josh Morgan and Aldrick Robinson will pick up the slack in Hankerson's absence the rest of the season with Robinson being the higher upside fantasy option.

 

NFC NORTH

 

Chicago: Jay Cutler remains out with an ankle sprain but at least has shed his hard cast and that's a positive sign he may be able to return in another week or two. Josh McCown has proven to be very effective as his replacement and the Bears offense doesn't look like it's slower with him at QB at all.

 

Detroit: Reggie Bush will start without issue despite having been benched last week for a fumble. Bush has vowed to not have another fumble the rest of this season, but that seems like an invitation from opponents to make you a target. Bush better hold up on his end. Joique Bell is expected to play his normal backup role despite being listed as Questionable with the Achilles injury he suffered last week. But I wouldn't trust him in a starting lineup myself as Achilles injuries are bad for RB's. Nate Burleson is Probable and will return this week. It will be his first game action since breaking his arm in a car accident after week 3. It's not known if he'll start over Kris Durham or not though, making him hard to trust. I'd rather wait for a game to see how he does and whether he's really back to the form that was making him a surprisingly decent fantasy WR3 the first 3 weeks. WR Calvin Johnson is Probable, and Probable for another week of insane production.

 

Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers is OUT and his status for next Thursday's Thanksgiving matchup against Detroit is in question too. Scott Tolzien will start until Rodgers can come back from his collarbone injury. WR James Jones has admitted that while he's not on the injury report anymore, he is still not fully recovered from his mid season knee injury. That could explain why he hasn't been effective. Randall Cobb has expressed concern he may not be able to return from his broken leg even when eligible in week 15. Don't be surprised if Jordy Nelson and Jarrett Boykin finish out the year as the top Packers WR's.

 

Minnesota: Adrian Peterson says he's going to play despite being listed as Questionable with a groin injury that limited him to one practice session all week. AP has stated the injury bothered him a lot last week and I think it's a huge disservice for the team to not rest the NFL's best RB and let him heal up. It's not like the Vikings are making a playoff push. Peterson should play and while nearly impossible to sit on fantasy benches, expectations have to be kept realistic. This may well be Christian Ponder's last hurrah as Vikings starting QB. If he has a bad game, it should spell the end of the line for him. Josh Freeman has had plenty of time now to learn the system and be able to execute it. If Ponder flops this week the team might as well find out whether Freeman can be effective at all. WR Greg Jennings says he will play despite being Questionable with the Achilles injury that caused him to be a surprise inactive week 11. I can think of about 80 WR's I'd rather have in my starting lineup than Jennings and the risk he represents for the tiny amount of reward he brings.

 

NFC SOUTH

 

Atlanta: There was a Steven Jackson sighting Thursday night. Hopefully this is a sign he's going to become fantasy relevant during the playoff run for owners. Still no sign of Roddy White though and I question whether he'll be a contributor at all by season's end.

 

Carolina: Cam Newton really looks like he's taking his game to the next level, but the true measure of whether a player is growing is how they handle adversity. I'll be curious how Newton conducts himself if the Panthers start losing. The 3 headed RBBC between DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert continues to make it difficult to trust any of them as more than desperation plays in fantasy starting lineups. Any of the three is capable of being fantasy worthy any given week but you'll never know which one will go off.

 

New Orleans: It's unknown if Darren Sproles will be able to play week 13 after missing Thursday night with knee and ankle injuries. Pierre Thomas has really stepped up as the Saints best (and most fantasy relevant) RB and look for it to stay that way going forward.

 

Tampa Bay: Bobby Rainey popped off in a big way last week and has claimed the starting job at RB over Brian Leonard. Not surprised. Also wasn't hard to predict that WR Vincent Jackson was ready for a big game last week after a string of poor performances. That's the way Jackson has always been in his career. The real trick is knowing when he's got a second consecutive big game in him and I think it's this week. QB Mike Glennon is a strong fantasy consideration this week. He's thrown a TD in every start this season and gets a Lions pass defense that is allowing nearly 315 passing yards per game over their last 4, and 12 passing TD's in that span. It may not come until garbage time, but that doesn't matter for fantasy purposes. Start both Glennon and Jackson.

 

NFC WEST

 

Arizona: Week 12's performance proves that it isn't a divine proclamation that Carson Palmer must throw an interception in every single game. Now he looks to make it two games in a row without a pick. It was very surprising the Cardinals weren't able to run last week on the Jags dead last ranked fantasy run defense, but a commitment to rushing the football hasn't exactly been Bruce Arians MO throughout his coaching career. I still think Andre Ellington is the better fantasy RB to Rashard Mendenhall, but it will always be a risk trusting a Cardinals RB.

 

St. Louis: It's hoped that the Rams used the bye week to find more ways to get Tavon Austin on the field more often so he can try to have more games like had in week 10. I kind of doubt it though and think that one game was more fluke than a glimpse of the near future. Benny Cunningham has usurped both Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead as the top backup to Zac Stacy. It's unknown on any given week if it will be Richardson or Pead who will be inactive.

 

San Francisco: Mario Manningham is fully expected to play Monday night despite being listed as Questionable with a knee issue. This could finally be the week Colin Kaepernick gets something going as few teams have been as consistently bad against the pass this season as the Redskins have been.

 

Seattle: Percy Harvin made it through week 11 without aggravating the hip he had surgery on back in July and it appears that his snaps restriction will be lifted when the Seahawks come out of their bye. Look for Harvin and Golden Tate to start with Doug Baldwin the #3 WR and Jermaine Kearse sliding back to the 4th WR role. Also, if the Seahawks win their week 13 Monday night contest against New Orleans, don't be surprised if we start seeing a bit more of RB's Robert Turbin and Christine Michael in the last few games so as to keep Marshawn Lynch fresh. If Seattle beats New Orleans, they'll have a 3 game lead on all other NFC teams for home field advantage in the NFC playoffs with only 4 games left to play.    

 

Fantasy News and Notes 11-21-13:

 

BYE WEEKS: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Seattle

 

Quarterbacks

 

As expected, Peyton Manning returned to practice today. Manning sat out yesterday to rest his ankle injury. He'll start Sunday night without issue.

 

Jay Cutler has shed the hard cast he was wearing on his injured ankle. This is a positive sign in his recovery from a high ankle sprain and while he won't be active week 12, and is doubtful for week 13, he may be back by week 14. With matchups against two of the bottom 5 fantasy pass defenses in Dallas and Philadelphia in weeks 14 and 16, Cutler is someone you don't want to drop if you can avoid it.

 

While Terrelle Pryor won't start this week for Oakland, it's sounding like he may be active as Matt McGloin's backup. A second consecutive great game by McGloin will likely mean he usurps Pryor as the Raiders starting QB going forward. But it's a tough matchup against Tennessee. The Titans have allowed the fewest passing TD's of all NFL teams with only 7 in 10 games played.  

 

 

Running Backs

 

Adrian Peterson sat out practice again today to rest his groin injury. Peterson has said he expects to be able to play Sunday. While I do expect he will play, I also expect he may be limited some. I still think Peterson owners should have Toby Gerhart on their rosters as insurance in case he aggravates the injury and ends up missing any game time.  

 

Darren McFadden missed practice again today because of his hamstring injury. I do not think he will play week 12 and I expect Rashad Jennings will again be the Raiders featured RB. As good as the Titans are against the pass, they have been woeful against the run ranking 31st in rushing fantasy points allowed per game. Jennings is a strong fantasy RB2 this week

 

Trent Richardson was limited today because of a calf injury. It's not believed to be serious though and Richardson is fully expected to be fine to go out and frustrate his fantasy owners again this week. Like I've been saying the last few weeks: Donald Brown is the better fantasy RB option on the Colts.

 

Joique Bell returned to practice today and he should be okay for his usual backup role to Reggie Bush this week despite having a minor foot injury. I'd feel a lot better though if the team would tell us exactly what the injury is.

 

Brandon Jacobs practiced today after sitting out yesterday to rest up his balky knee. He should be okay for his usual role as short yardage RB behind Andre Brown again this week. Last week, the Giants made Peyton Hillis inactive and it appears Hillis is the odd man out in the RB pecking order. Hillis can be dropped.

 

 

Wide Receivers

 

Wes Welker returned to a limited practice today. This is a positive sign that he is making progress as he goes through the league's concussion protocols. Barring the unexpected, I feel good about his chances of playing Sunday night against his former team, New England.

 

Calvin Johnson returned to practice today. Megatron sat out yesterday in what was his normal Wednesday off to rest his knee. He'll be fine for week 12.

 

Oakland's Denarius Moore has yet to practice this week because of a shoulder injury. Originally the injury was believed to be minor but missed practices aren't a good sign. If he doesn't practice at least in limited fashion tomorrow, I'd expect him to miss week 12. Brice Butler and Andre Holmes likely would split up duties in his place if Moore doesn't play. Neither would be an attractive desperation play against the Titans stingy fantasy pass defense though.

 

Santonio Holmes took part in a limited practice today after sitting out yesterday to rest his hamstring. Holmes will be fine for week 12.

 

Hakeem Nicks practiced today in limited fashion after sitting out yesterday to rest a listed groin injury. Nicks has been a huge disappointment this season but the desperate can at least consider him in a great matchup against the Cowboys last ranked fantasy defense.

 

Greg Jennings practiced today after sitting out yesterday with the Achilles injury that made him a surprise inactive last Sunday. While I'd like to be able to trust Jennings in a game against his former team, I really don't and find a lot more reasons to sit him instead of trying to find ways to get him in a starting lineup. I would keep Jennings benched this week.

 

Jacksonville's Cecil Shorts was limited again today as the team takes it easy on the minor groin injury he's been playing through the last few games. Shorts will be fine for this week and could be in line for a good game after criticizing his lack of targets in recent games. However, teammate Mike Brown has been unable to practice yet this week because of a shoulder injury and he appears very questionable to play this week. With Stephen Burton not likely to play because of a concussion and Stephen Williams not practicing because of an Achilles injury, the Jags may be down to either Ace Sanders or Kerry Taylor as a starting option opposite Cecil Shorts. Shorts is the only potential fantasy play from this group.

 

Washington placed Leonard Hankerson on injured reserve today. Hankerson not only needs surgery to repair a torn LCL, but also a torn ACL. His recovery could push into the early parts of the 2014 season. Even in dynasty leagues I'd have a hard time finding a reason to hold onto him.

 

 

Tight Ends

 

Julius Thomas returned to a limited practice today after sitting out yesterday with his knee injury. If he can practice again tomorrow I'll feel better about his chances of being able to play Sunday night. But be prepared for him to be called Questionable on tomorrow's injury report and considered a game time decision.

 

Jordan Reed missed practice again today because of the concussion he suffered week 11. While Reed doesn't play until Monday night, it's a bad sign he hasn't gained clearance to at least take any part in practice yet. Those of you with Reed need to have another option ready to go. Logan Paulsen and Fred Davis would likely split up receiving TE duties for Washington if Reed doesn't play. While Davis is the superior talent to Paulsen, Davis also comes with the higher risk factor of giving a goose egg as the coaches seem to have really soured on him, making him inactive the last several games.  

 

This season's picks are quickly going south on me. An occasional mediocre week doesn't hurt, but I've yet t top 11 correct in any given week so far and last week I only posted 9 correct for a second consecutive week. My record on the season is a very disappointing 101-61. That's barely more than 9 correct each week on average. We'll see if I can get that turned around this week.

 

Here are my week 12 NFL Game Predictions:

 

New Orleans 35, Atlanta 20

Carolina 23, Miami 16

St. Louis 23, Chicago 20

Houston 28, Jacksonville 21

Green Bay 24, Minnesota 10

Baltimore 20, NY Jets 16

Pittsburgh 21, Cleveland 17

Kansas City 23, San Diego 16

Detroit 31, Tampa Bay 24

Arizona 23, Indianapolis 20

Oakland 21, Tennessee 16

NY Giants 24, Dallas 23

Denver 31, New England 27

San Francisco 24, Washington 17

 

There you have them: my week 12 NFL game picks.

 

The Survivor Pool Lock last week went down in flames as undrafted rookie Matt McGloin played a near flawless game in his career start and the Raiders beat the Titans. I knew I should have taken the Cardinals over the Jaguars. That makes the 4th wrong choice this season. Between the locks and the weekly game picks, it's clear this isn't my season. Next year I'm buying a dart board and seeing whether throwing darts randomly really would be that much different. But I will continue to strive to do my best. Here are the weekly results so far this season:

 

Week 1 (W; 21-17) Indianapolis over Oakland

Week 2 (L; 30-33) Philadelphia over San Diego

Week 3 (W; 45-17) Seattle over Jacksonville

Week 4 (W; 52-20) Denver over Philadelphia

Week 5 (W; 34-20) St. Louis over Jacksonville

Week 6 (W; 24-7) Kansas City over Oakland

Week 7 (L; 27-30) New England over NY Jets

Week 8 (W; 42-10) San Francisco over Jacksonville

Week 9 (W; 27-23) Dallas over Minnesota

Week 10 (L; 27-29) Tennessee over Jacksonville

Week 11 (L; 23-28) Houston over Oakland

 

This week we're going to get the pain over with real quick. The Atlanta Falcons are listless and the Saints are only one game behind Seattle for the top seed in the NFC. If the Saints beat Atlanta tonight, that sets up a showdown in week 13 when the Saints play the Seahawks on Monday night, with the winner having the clear edge for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I can't imagine the Saints will trip up at this point. If the Falcons were playing anything that resembled competent football of late I might buy into this being a trap game for New Orleans. But the Falcons aren't, and the Saints know they have everything to lose if they overlook their division rival. Normally I don't like taking road teams in division rivalry games, especially on the short week playing on a Thursday night, but I really just can't see the Saints losing tonight.

 

 My Survivor Pool Lock for Week 12 is: the New Orleans Saints over the Atlanta Falcons.

 

Best of luck to all in your own picks this week!

 

Fantasy News and Notes 11-20-13:

 

BYE WEEKS: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Seattle

 

Quarterbacks

 

Peyton Manning didn't practice today. It was just a day of rest on his still hurting ankle. Manning is in no danger of not playing Sunday night against New England.

 

The Raiders named Matt McGloin their starting QB for week 12. This was expected after McGloin was outstanding in their week 11 victory over Houston. It's unknown if Terrelle Pryor's knee was a factor in the decision or not, but Pryor was able to practice today in limited fashion and appears to be making progress. If McGloin can be impressive against a strong Tennessee Titans pass defense this week, it's likely he will be the Raiders starting QB to finish out 2013.

 

Minnesota has named Christian Ponder their starting QB for week 12. But if he has a poor game this week I expect we'll see Josh Freeman in week 13.

 

 

Running Backs

 

Adrian Peterson sat out practice today to rest his groin injury. I said it yesterday that I expected AP to practice very little, if at all, this week because of the injury but I still tentatively expect him to play this week. But we may see a good bit more of Toby Gerhart than we normally would.

 

Darren Sproles is Questionable for Thursday night's game against Atlanta and he will be a game time decision. Even if active, I would expect to see less of Sproles than we normally would and would encourage those with him on their teams to consider sitting him even if he is active.

 

Darren McFadden sat out practice today because of his hamstring injury and I'm getting the sense that he is not going to play this week. That's just me speculating though and there is plenty of time left this week for McFadden to prove e wrong. But I doubt if Oakland will hurry him back when Rashad Jennings is running so well. It's a luxury to be able to rest McFadden and get his hamstring fully healed before bringing him back and until Jennings has a really bad game, I expect the Raiders will do just that.

 

Joique Bell sat out practice today because of his foot injury. The Lions still have not revealed the exact nature of the injury and right now I'd have to consider Bell to be very questionable to play week 12.

 

 

Wide Receivers

 

Wes Welker sat out practice today because of his concussion. Welker is in a race against time to get cleared for the Broncos Sunday night contest against the Patriots.

 

Calvin Johnson sat out practice today. This is normal. Megatron sat out Wednesday and Thursday last week before blowing up against the Steelers. Johnson will be fine for week 12.

 

Washington's Leonard Hankerson knee injury is going to require season ending surgery. His 2013 season is done. While Josh Morgan likely will regain the starting job opposite Pierre Garcon, it's Aldrick Robinson who has the higher fantasy upside.

 

Santonio Holmes sat out Jets practice today with a listed hamstring injury. Holmes didn't appear to have any setbacks this past weekend so I expect this was just a precautionary day of rest for the oft-injured WR. His teammate, Jeremy Kerley, returned to a limited practice but is considered a long shot to play in week 12 because of his elbow injury. Week 13 appears a likelier return date for Kerley. David Nelson is expected to start opposite of Holmes this week as Stephen Hill has apparently been demoted for poor play. 

 

Emmanuel Sanders practiced today, which leads credence to the report the foot injury he suffered Sunday was indeed minor. Sanders should be fine for week 13.

 

Keenan Allen practiced today and he appears to be fine for week 12 despite having suffered a minor knee injury week 11.

 

No word on whether Minnesota WR Greg Jennings is going to be okay for week 12 or not. Jennings surprised us all by being named inactive week 11 because of his Achilles injury after being listed as Probable on the injury report. Jennings sat out practice today and shouldn't be trusted.

 

Hakeem Nicks sat out practice with a groin injury. No word if this is a serious concern or not, but I get the feeling it isn't. More than anything it's the latest excuse for him to use as to why he's sucked this season.  

 

Marlon Brown practiced today and is on track to play week 12 after having missed week 11 with a knee injury.

 

Among WR's who were either limited in practice or held out, but are expected to be okay for week 12, the list includes: New England's Danny Amendola (groin), Jacksonville's Cecil Shorts (groin), San Diego's duo of Eddie Royal (toe) and Vincent Brown (shoulder), and Arizona's Michael Floyd (shoulder).

 

 

Tight Ends

 

Jimmy Graham is Probable for tomorrow night's game and will be fine to start despite his foot and elbow injuries.

 

Tony Gonzalez is listed as Questionable for Thursday night because of his toe injury. However Gonzalez was able to practice some today and he is expected to be able to play.

 

Jordan Reed didn't practice today because of his concussion suffered week 11. Because Washington plays Monday night, he has an extra day to gain clearance, but it's uncertain if we'll know by Sunday whether he's been cleared or not. If he doesn't play, it's likely Logan Paulsen and Fred Davis would split up receiving TE duties.

 

Julius Thomas didn't practice today because of his knee injury. The exact nature of the injury still hasn't been revealed yet by the Broncos, which is a bit concerning. I highly recommend having a backup plan ready for Thomas in case it turns out that he can't play.

 

Fantasy News and Notes 11-19-13:

 

BYE WEEKS: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Seattle

 

Quarterbacks

 

Jay Cutler has already been ruled OUT for week 12 because of his high ankle sprain. There's been talk that Cutler may have ligament damage and that he could miss additional weeks. Josh McCown will continue to start in his place.  

 

After a 3 TD, no interceptions performance in a win over Houston this past weekend, undrafted rookie Matt McGloin may get a second consecutive start for Oakland week 12 even if Terrelle Pryor is able to return from his knee injury. There's been no word about Pryor's availability yet but I'd bet the Raiders will not rush Pryor back to play this week. We should get definitive word tomorrow or Thursday.

 

Scott Tolzien will start for Green Bay again this week as Aaron Rodgers is not ready to return from his collarbone injury yet. Rodgers is tentatively expected to play on Thanksgiving Day.

 

Houston is sticking with Case Keenum as their starting QB despite his having been benched Sunday. I was actually confused by the benching as he wasn't playing that poorly when they made the switch to Matt Schaub. Luckily for Keenum, Schaub didn't do anything to impress. Keenum is on thin ice as the losses pile up, but you will be able to consider him in a nice matchup against Jacksonville week 12.

 

Geno Smith's job is safe for now. The Jets say Smith will remain their starting QB despite one of the worst QB performances of the 2013 season on Sunday.

 

Minnesota hasn't announced who will start for them at QB week 12. Christian Ponder was predictably awful against Seattle Sunday and Matt Cassel was no better. The Vikings have two choices, give Ponder, who hadn't looked bad in his two prior games before the Seattle debacle one more chance to play his way in or out of the job; or just turn the page and start Josh Freeman. There's been no word on which way they're leaning but I guess they'll give Ponder one more chance.

 

Running Backs

 

Adrian Peterson admitted Monday that the groin injury that made him sit out practices on Thursday and Friday of last week was bothering him during the game week 11. While it's likely the Vikings will rest AP quite a bit in practices this week, he is tentatively expected to be okay for week 12. However, it may not be a bad idea to see if Toby Gerhart is available on your free agent wire and if he is, acquire him as insurance in case this turns out to be more serious than currently believed.

 

Darren Sproles is likely to be considered Questionable for Thursday night's game against Atlanta because of ankle and knee injuries. Neither injury is believed to be serious, but on the short week, there's less time to rest and rehab and this could lead to a decreased role for him even if active. Pierre Thomas really has become the top RB for the Saints and the only reliable fantasy play. Now that I've said that, I'm sure he will get 5 carries and 2 receptions week 12.

 

It's unknown if Darren McFadden will be able to play week 12 or not. McFadden has missed the last couple of games with a hamstring injury. It's reported that even when McFadden returns, the Raiders still are going to get Rashad Jennings plenty of offensive touches. Jennings flopped miserably last season in Jacksonville, but has excelled in Oakland when called upon to carry the load. Tentatively, I expect McFadden to miss at least one more game.

 

Detroit's Joique Bell suffered a foot injury Sunday, but the team isn't giving any details. They say Bell has avoided serious injury but gave no update on whether he's in danger of missing week 12. Right now consider Bell very questionable to play this week. If he doesn't, Theo Riddick would be the top backup to Reggie Bush. Bush was benched Sunday for fumbling, but it he'll still remain the Lions primary RB.

 

Brandon Bolden was made inactive last night by the Patriots. It appears Bolden is the odd man out with Shane Vereen back.

 

Jacquizz Rodgers is expected to play Thursday night despite having an ankle injury. Steven Jackson actually did okay week 11, but still didn't get enough carries to warrant fantasy consideration. The Falcons actually say they want to get Antone Smith more involved in the offense after he ripped off two big runs in garbage time week 11. We'll see if they really do that as Smith has been mired at 4th on the RB depth chart this season. I'd just avoid Falcons RB's.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Wes Welker suffered a concussion Sunday and his status for week 12's Sunday night matchup against the Patriots is uncertain. You can bet Welker will do everything in his power to pass all concussion protocols and play in that game.

 

Pittsburgh's Emmanuel Sanders is tentatively expected to be okay for week 12 despite having suffered a foot injury Sunday. We'll see how the practice reports list Sanders tomorrow and Thursday.

 

Keenan Allen suffered a knee injury week 11 and while he was unable to finish the game, the Chargers say they expect him to play week 12. Barring any bad news in practice this week you should be okay considering Allen as you normally would.

 

Washington's Leonard Hankerson suffered a knee injury, the seriousness of which hasn't been revealed yet. There's talk he could require surgery to repair his LCL, which likely would end his season. Aldrick Robinson and Josh Morgan would likely split up duties opposite Pierre Garcon if Hankerson misses real time. Right now, I would be looking to replace Hankerson. His upside isn't worth holding onto him given the situation. Meanwhile, it's hoped that the ankle injury Garcon seemed to have suffered week 11 is minor and that he'll be fine for week 12.

 

Oakland's Denarius Moore suffered a shoulder injury week 11. It's not thought to be serious, but results of a Monday MRI haven't been announced yet. Tentatively expect Moore to be okay for week 12.

 

Dallas expects to have Miles Austin finally back in week 12. Austin has missed the last several games resting his chronic hamstring problems. His return will cut into the playing time of Terrence Williams, which in turn will cut into Cole Beasley's. For fantasy purposes; no one wins with Austin coming back. But don't worry. It should take anywhere from 2 plays to two weeks before the hamstring issue pops up again.

 

Indianapolis waived Griff Whalen today. I only mention this because this means Da'Rick Rogers elevates to likely being active on game days. With only stone handed Darrius Heyward-Bey and inconsistent LaVon Brazil in front of him on the depth chart, Rogers is still a name I am keeping an eye on.

 

Tight Ends

 

Jordan Reed suffered a concussion week 11 and his status for week 12 is very uncertain. Reed will have an additional day to pass all the concussion protocols as Washington plays Monday night, but we may not know if he's passed them by the time Sunday games roll around. Those counting on Reed need to have a backup plan ready just in case.

 

Julius Thomas suffered a knee sprain Sunday and his status for week 12 is uncertain. While he's tentatively expected to be okay, I recommend having a backup plan ready for Thomas in case the injury turns out to be serious.

 

Tony Gonzalez made it through week 11 despite his toe injury. He's sitting out practices so far this week as the Falcons play on Thursday night, but he is tentatively expected to be okay to play. 

2013 Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game

 

Thru Week 11

 

Remember the generic formula:
 
*-Total Yards allowed divided by 10 (representing 1 point for every 10 rushing yards allowed)

*-Rushing TD's allowed multiplied by 6 (representing 6 points for every TD allowed)

*-Add the two totals together and divide by number of games played

 

2013 Receiving Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game

 

Thru Week 11

 

Remember the generic formula:

*-Total Yards allowed divided by 10 (representing 1 point for every 10 receiving yards allowed)

*-Receiving TD's allowed multiplied by 6 (representing 6 points for every TD allowed)

*-Add the two totals together and divide by number of games played

 

AFC EAST

 

Buffalo: Both starting WR's have been ruled OUT. Steve Johnson has a groin injury while Robert Woods has an ankle injury. They'll be replaced by T.J. Graham and Marquise Goodwin in the starting lineup with Chris Hogan likely to be the #3. I get the feeling QB E.J. Manuel will be throwing a lot to TE Scott Chandler this week. Despite RB C.J. Spiller not being listed on the injury report it's pretty clear that he is still bothered some by his ankle injury. The Bills sat him out one game but as I said then: that's not enough time off for him to truly get over it. It will lead to unpredictable weeks where Spiller can be big, but others where he is awful. Fred Jackson has proven to be much more consistent and is the better fantasy RB.

 

Miami: WR Mike Wallace is Questionable because of a hamstring injury that apparently happened sometime in practice this week. But he was able to practice in limited fashion both Thursday and Friday so he is tentatively expected to be okay for week 11. WR Rishard Matthews looked great as the Dolphins new #3 WR last week hauling in 11 catches for 120 yards and 2 TD's last week. Those numbers won't be sustainable going forward, but there's a chance just like the man he replaced (Brandon Gibson) Matthews could be a bit of a ppr surprise for fantasy owners who need a WR. The offensive line woes continue and really hurt the rushing attack last week. We'll see if gets any better this week. But trusting Lamar Miller as more than a middling fantasy RB3 is hard to do.

 

New England: The most burning question surrounding the Patriots is whether they'll activate RB Shane Vereen by Monday afternoon from the IR/Designated for return list or not. Because of the uncertainty, Vereen can't be trusted in any fantasy lineups this week. The uncertainty also makes it impossible to trust Brandon Bolden. The only Pats RB to be trusted is Stevan Ridley, and even then he is a low end RB2/3. TE Rob Gronkowski is Probable for Monday night's game and appears to just about back to full speed. WR Danny Amendola is also Probable and will e fine despite his lingering groin issue. The Patriots WR depth chart has a clear top 3 in Amendola, Aaron Dobson, and Julian Edelman, but Kenbrell Thompkins may start being pushed for the #4 spot by Josh Boyce. Thompkins star has spiraled into darkness and he is droppable in all formats.

 

New York Jets: WR Jeremy Kerley is OUT with a dislocated elbow injury but Santonio Holmes is Probable and will return after missing the last several weeks with a hamstring injury. Holmes will probably platoon with David Nelson opposite of Stephen Hill. TE Jeff Cumberland has passed all of his concussion tests and will play, but the return of Kellen Winslow from a 4 game suspension could cut into his fantasy value.

 

AFC NORTH

 

Baltimore: WR Marlon Brown was added to the injury report on Friday as not practicing at all because of a knee injury. Brown wasn't on the Wednesday or Thursday practice report injury lists so it's fair to wonder if the injury happened at the end of Thursday or at the beginning of Friday's practice. He's not worth risking in my opinion and would keep Brown benched even if active. If he misses the game, it just means Jacoby Jones and Tandon Doss are likely to see an uptick in playing time. Not enough to make either a strong play but enough to give Jones at least some desperation flex appeal. If RB Ray Rice struggles to run against Chicago's 30th ranked fantasy run defense I'm ready to throw in the towel on him and start clamoring for Bernard Pierce to get his shot at being the primary RB. Maybe the Ravens are thinking the same. Pierce needs to be owned in all fantasy leagues.

 

Cincinnati: TE Jermaine Gresham is Probable and will play week 11 after sitting out week 10 with a groin injury. His return just drops the fantasy potential of teammate Tyler Eifert. WR Marvin Jones is a sneaky fantasy play this week as A.J. Green will draw the attention of Browns' all-world CB Joe Haden. RB Giovani Bernard has touched the ball 35 times the last 2 games compared to 30 times for Benjarvus Green-Ellis. It's beginning to look like Bernard is taking over, albeit it slowly. Bernard is someone you want to trade for as the Bengals have great matchups during the fantasy playoffs weeks.

 

Cleveland: This could be the week that RB Chris Ogbonnaya pulls to an even timeshare with Willis McGahee. McGahee has just looked brutally slow and sluggish showing no ability to find a hole or jump through one. I think the Browns have to realize this and get the plodding but more powerful Ogbonnaya a chance for more carries. We could also starts seeing smaller Fozzy Whitaker getting an increased offensive role very soon. The bye in week 10 was enough time for QB Jason Campbell to get his bruised ribs injury healed up and he will start without issue.

 

Pittsburgh: Even though WR Markus Wheaton is finally over his finger injury he's finding it difficult to supplant Jerricho Cotchery as the Steelers #3 WR. Cotchery lacks the playmaking speed and abilities of the rookie, but his smart routes and knowledge of where to find soft spots in opposing defenses has made him valuable to the Steelers offense. This should be a good week for Ben Roethlisberger as the Lions are a giving fantasy pass defense. RB Le'Veon Bell's workload is guaranteeing him solid fantasy RB2 value each week.

 

AFC SOUTH

 

Houston: With Arian Foster having been placed on injured reserve and having back surgery this past week, Ben Tate gets a chance to finish out the season as the Texans featured RB. Tate has the skills, but also has an injury history. Those with him would be smart to grab his top backup, Dennis Johnson, as insurance. Deji Karim is the #3 RB as rookie Ray Graham was waived. Graham is likely to land back on the Texans practice squad. TE Ryan Griffin is OUT with a concussion. Case Keenum looks to get his first win of the season. In his 3 starts, the Texans have lost by 7 total combined points. This despite the fact Keenum has thrown for 7 TD's while having zero interceptions. Keenum is actually a pretty good bet to get his first win this week at home against Oakland. Those who were worried about how Keenum's presence may negatively impact WR Andre Johnson have to be very surprised. Johnson has flourished with Keenum at QB. All 5 of Johnson's TD receptions have come in the last 2 games.

 

Indianapolis: After two weeks or warning everyone that Donald Brown has been out-producing Trent Richardson and likely was going to usurp him soon, it finally happened Thursday night. Expect Brown to be the more primary of the 2 going forward. I think Richardson is the more talented of the two, but something just isn't clicking with him and the blocking schemes. I can't put a finger on it, but I almost get the feeling there's something wrong with Richardson we haven't been told about. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey either has an ankle injury, or has simply been bypassed by other WR's because of drops. LaVon Brazil and Griff Whalen appeared to get a lot of playing time Thursday. Neither is a dynamic player though and I am hopeful the Colts make rookie Da'Rick Rogers active going forward and start getting him on the field. He's got the best game to complement T.Y. Hilton if he's ready for the challenge.

 

Jacksonville: Even though there were quite a few limited practices between them, RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee), along with WR's Cecil Shorts (groin) and Mike Brown (ankle) are all Probable and each will start without issue. Chad Henne continues to be the starting QB. This just tells you how incredibly bad Blaine Gabbert really is.

 

Tennessee: Chris Johnson has scored 4 TD's in the last 3 games. He started Thursday night off smoking hot, but then quickly cooled off and couldn't get anything going on the ground. Not sure why that was as he was on track for a monster night before the 1st quarter was through. Ryan Fitzpatrick was statistically sound as he will finish out the season in place of Jake Locker (injured reserve; foot) and the QB desperate should consider him as he has very favorable matchups in the fantasy playoff weeks. When you don't have a stud, you want guys with great matchups.

 

AFC WEST

 

Denver: Peyton Manning's ankle injury would be a bigger concern if he was any type of running QB, but he isn't, and therefore it isn't. Manning is Probable and will start without problem against Kansas City Sunday night. However, it won't be a surprise if we start seeing more of rookie RB Montee Ball earlier in games as the Broncos try to establish a reliable rushing attack so Manning isn't dropping back 45+ times every game. Ball is power RB complement to Knowshon Moreno. Moreno is a RB1 while Ball a RB3/4. Ronnie Hillman continues to be a game day inactive and likely will be again this week. Both TE Julius Thomas and WR Wes Welker are Probable despite their respective ankle injuries.

 

Kansas City: The Chiefs come into their week 11 showdown with division rival Denver pretty much at full strength. No one on the team is listed as being worse than Probable. In fact, don't be surprised if we have a Dwayne Bowe sighting this week. Bowe was arrested last weekend for speeding and possession of marijuana. It wouldn't be a shock at all if Bowe was motivated to have a great game this week to try to earn back some good will from fans and the organization. Few things make others forgive you like having a big game against a division rival. Of course, there's also the chance Bowe just simply folds up and disappears. Consider him a high risk/high reward fantasy WR3 this week for the bold.

 

Oakland: QB Terrelle Pryor was ruled OUT for week 11 on Saturday because of his knee injury. Undrafted rookie Matt McGloin will start in his place. It's likely the Raiders will call up Tyler Wilson from the practice squad to be his backup. McGloin's a poor bet for pulling off a happy fantasy surprise and I recommend staying away from all Raiders except for RB Rashad Jennings. Jennings get to start again this week as Darren McFadden is OUT again with his hamstring injury.

 

San Diego: Another week where Eddie Royal is Questionable after having not practiced once at all during the week. This was the 4th consecutive week that has happened and in each case thus far, Royal has still played in the actual games and not looked limited at all by his "toe" injury. I expect he'll play this week too. RB Ryan Mathews is Probable despite having a minor hamstring injury. If the hamstring turns out to be an actual concern, we could see a lot more of both Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown, but he's supposed to be fine with a Probable listing.

 

NFC EAST

 

Dallas: It's thought that maybe the bye this week will be the final week that Miles Austin needs to get over his chronic hamstring issue. We'll see if he practices next week. It's also hoped that the rest will help Dez Bryant rest and rehab his bothersome back issue.

 

New York Giants: RB Brandon Jacobs is Questionable and likely will be a game time decision. But considering he's likely to be no higher than 3rd on the RB depth chart behind featured RB Andre Brown and top backup Peyton Hillis, and Jacobs potential return should mean nothing for fantasy. The only thing he can do is usurp Hillis as the top backup to Brown. Eli Manning has only thrown 1 interception in the last 3 games, but he also only has 586 passing yards and 2 TD's in that span as well. I have a feeling a big game from Eli is coming soon as he's simply too good a QB to continue to have these horrible games.

 

Philadelphia: QB Nick Foles is fully expected to finish out the season as the Eagles starting QB regardless of whether Michael Vick ever gets over his hamstring woes. Foles is both the Eagles QB of the present and the future. Vick will be looking for a new team this off-season. WR Riley Cooper continues to have dominant games with Foles at QB. Cooper isn't a highly talented WR but Foles seems to love him and get him the ball for big play after big play. Cooper is a legitimate fantasy WR2/3 this week with a matchup against Washington's 30th ranked fantasy pass defense. TE Brent Celek is Probable despite having a hip injury. His split with Zack Ertz makes it hard to trust either for having fantasy value.

 

Washington: WR Leonard Hankerson is Probable with a minor hamstring injury. He'll be fine for his usual role as the unreliably inconsistent sometimes WR2-4 depending on the whim of Mike Shanahan any given week. Hopefully after making sure both Roy Helu and Darrel Young have had games with 3 TD runs Shanahan remembers he has a stud in Alfred Morris who found the end zone 13 times last season but only has 5 rushing TD's this year. WR Pierre Garcon should continue to be a yardage machine for a 3rd consecutive week (Garcon has caught 14 passes for 291 yards and 1 TD the last two games combined) as he faces an Eagles pass defense allowing the second most passing yards per game to their opponents.

 

NFC NORTH

 

Chicago: Josh McCown starts at QB in place of injured Jay Cutler. Cutler is expected to miss a couple of weeks with an ankle injury. McCown has acquitted himself well in all game action so far this season and it's unlikely that WR's Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery will see much of a letdown at all. Don't be surprised if the Bears take quite a few shots down the field this week as the Ravens have allowed more passing plays of 40+ yards than any other team in the league. TE Martellus Bennett is expected to play despite being listed as Questionable with an ankle injury.

 

Detroit: WR Calvin Johnson scared everyone when he sat out both Wednesday and Thursday practices because of his lingering knee issue as it brought back memories of his week 5 surprise inactive, but he did practice Friday and the Lions list him as Probable for week 11, so he can be started with confidence. The difference in expectations for a player listed as Probable as opposed to Questionable is huge. WR Nate Burleson is Doubtful and won't play week 11. Burleson's been practicing the last two weeks but the Lions aren't rushing him back from his broken forearm. Kris Durham has been impressive opposite Calvin Johnson and could remain in the starting lineup even when Burleson returns. RB Reggie Bush is Probable. Bush is only listed at all because the team has been giving him Friday's off the last 2 weeks after he practiced in full Wednesday and Thursday. It's a smart move by the team to manage Bush this way given his injury history.

 

Green Bay: Scott Tolzien will start this week with Aaron Rodgers not ready to return from his collarbone injury yet and Seneca Wallace having suffered a season-ending groin injury last week. Tolzien is an example of the great unknown for fantasy. He could be a huge surprise, or he could be a big dud. Rodgers is saying he may be back next week, but Thanksgiving still seems like the more likely return date. I think a lot of that will depend on whether Tolzien does well or not this week. Tolzien, as a backup QB predictably looked to be more comfortable throwing to Jarrett Boykin than the regular starters Jordy Nelson and James Jones. Most likely Tolzien has had a lot more time practicing with Boykin earlier in the season. We'll see if that remains the same this week. The player I'm most concerned about losing fantasy value is WR James Jones. I think Nelson and Boykin will be okay and RB Eddie Lacy will get a huge workload, but Jones is just someone I get a feeling will be the odd man out.

 

Minnesota: Christian Ponder will start at QB despite having suffered a dislocated non-throwing shoulder injury in week 10. Ponder may not be a very good NFL or fantasy QB but you have to admire his moxie and tenacity at trying to keep hold of the Vikings starting QB job. He's going to need every ounce of moxie this week to have any success on the road against the Seahawks #1 ranked fantasy pass defense. Adrian Peterson is Probable despite not having practiced at all Thursday and Friday because of a groin injury. AP will start and be fine. WR Cordarrelle Patterson will start over Jerome Simpson. It's unknown if this is a long overdue switch, or just a one week demotion for Simpson having been popped for DUI last weekend. TE John Carlson looks to have a second consecutive big game replacing injured Kyle Rudolph. Good luck on that. The only Vikings I'd start this week are AP and maybe Patterson in leagues where you get special teams yardage. He should have at 5 kickoff returns.

 

NFC SOUTH

 

Atlanta: TE Tony Gonzalez is Questionable and will be a game time decision because of a toe injury suffered last week. While I tentatively expect Gonzalez will play, I also expect he's going to be limited because of the injury. WR Harry Douglas is Questionable because of a knee issue that seemed to pop up in practice this week. Douglas was able to practice some on Friday and tentatively is expected to be okay for week 11. Roddy White is Probable with a listed shoulder injury. I am a bit surprised his ankle and hamstring issues have been replaced by a shoulder injury, but at least he's Probable and appears to be getting closer to being 90% of his regular self. The Falcons spent all week talking about how they need to give the ball to RB Steven Jackson more. We'll see if they do that or not. If they don't, I am done buying into Jackson having any potential value.

 

Carolina: RB Mike Tolbert is Probable for Monday night but it's not for any injury reason. There must be some personal stuff going on with him but he is expected to play Monday night. Since Jonathan Stewart returned from the PUP list, it's been the exact same issue this season as it was last season with Carolina's RB situation: a 3 headed RBBC between Stewart, Tolbert, and DeAngelo Williams that can't be relied on and is at best a "bunting for first" play any given week. It's good to see TE Greg Olsen finally off the injury report after he spent several weeks on it with a mysterious foot ailment.

 

New Orleans: TE Jimmy Graham is Probable and will play despite probably being limited in how much game action he gets. Graham is still bothered by foot and elbow injuries. Backup TE Ben Watson though is OUT because of a concussion. RB Mark Ingram blew up last week but that was a lot more likely to be a one week wonder type of thing and not an indication the former first round draft bust has finally come into his own. The split at RB makes it hard to trust any of the Saints talented RB's as more than RB3's. It's a little surprising that WR Marques Colston is not on the injury report at all. Colston's poor performances until last week had been blamed on a knee injury he'd been playing through. Now that he went off in a game the injury has mysteriously disappeared from the injury report. Sure, it's coincidental.

 

Tampa Bay: With Mike James having gone on IR after suffering a broken ankle injury last Monday night, the team now turns to a combo of FB hybrid Brian Leonard and scatback Bobby Rainey to finish the season as their top RB's. Leonard is a trusted veteran who excels in pass blocking and is an excellent receiving RB. As a runner, he is a power guy who lacks elusiveness but can bowl people over. Rainey is unproven in the passing game and probably won't handle many of those duties. But as a runner he is a lot faster and more creative than Leonard. While Leonard will get first crack to be the more primary of the two, I think the playmaking difference Rainey can provide will eventually make him top Leonard as the better fantasy RB in the non-ppr format. In ppr, I give the edge to Leonard. WR Vincent Jackson has had 3 mediocre games in a row and you know that means he has an explosion of fantasy points coming very soon. No better time to me than this week at home against a reeling Falcons defense. Watch Jackson be a top 5 fantasy WR this week.

 

NFC WEST

 

Arizona: WR Michael Floyd is expected to play week 11 despite being Questionable with a shoulder injury. With a matchup against Jacksonville's pitiful run defense, Andre Ellington is a solid fantasy RB2 while Rashard Mendenhall could be a low end RB2. No team allows more rushing yards or rushing TD's than the Jags. This could also be a game where Larry Fitzgerald gets some stats. Fitz has been mired in mediocrity the last several games and I get the feeling Carson Palmer is going to grease Fitz with some extra passes to bring his stats up.

 

St. Louis: Perhaps the bye this week will allow the Rams to figure out how to get rookie Tavon Austin on the field more often. Austin had a great game week 10, but was barely on the field for 25% of the offensive snaps. He, Chris Givens, and Brian Quick need to be the Rams top 3 WR's. It's unknown what's happened to Daryl Richardson. He wasn't on the injury report week 10 but was inactive for a second consecutive game. It appears undrafted rookie Benny Cunningham has passed up both of 2012's draft picks (Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson) as the top backup to Zac Stacy.

 

San Francisco: TE Vernon Davis is Questionable and it's still unknown if he has passed all of his concussion tests or not. I would think if he had there would have been some report about it somewhere. Clouding the issue is 3rd string TE Garrett Celek being Doubtful. This clouds the situation as it's unknown if Saturday's call up of practice squad TE Derek Carrier to the active roster is an indication of Davis's status or not. Consider Davis a true game time decision. WR Mario Manningham is fully expected to play this week despite being listed as Questionable. Manningham played is his first game action last week since suffering a torn ACL in 2012. WR Michael Crabtree was back at practice on Friday, but he has not been activated off the PUP list yet and is still at least another week away from returning from a torn Achilles injury suffered back in May. Crabtree likely won't return until week 13 at the earliest.

 

Seattle: WR Percy Harvin has been activated from the PUP list and is Probable to make his 2013 season debut this week in a great matchup against his former team. The Seahawks may limit Harvin's playing time but even in limited time he should be worth thinking about as a fantasy WR2/3 given the vengeance factor against a team that is bottom 3 in fantasy pass defense. His return pushes Jermaine Kearse down to being the Seahawks #4 WR and probably out of any fantasy value. Between Harvin's return and the matchup, expect this to be a great week to have Russell Wilson as a starting fantasy QB. 

Fantasy News and Notes 11-13-13:

 

BYE WEEKS: Dallas, St. Louis

 

Quarterbacks

 

Peyton Manning returned to practice today. Manning skipped yesterday to rest up his ankle injury. While the ankle may be painful for him, he's fully expected to start Sunday night without issue

 

Terrelle Pryor also returned to practice today after sitting out yesterday to rest a knee injury. Pryor split first team snaps with backup Matt McGloin. This is a positive sign for his availability this weekend. Tentatively expect Pryor to start, but also remember he's not at full speed and a lot of his fantasy value has come from his rushing abilities. And the knee is going to hinder that.

 

Christian Ponder practiced again today and barring any surprises, he will start for Minnesota this week. But on the road against Seattle? He shouldn't be a fantasy starter this week.  

 

 

Running Backs

 

Adrian Peterson sat out practice today, but there's no injury listed so it's believed to just be a day off for the stud RB.

 

Darren McFadden missed practice again today because of his hamstring injury. He is not expected to play this week and his status for week 12 is even uncertain. Rashad Jennings should start and be the Raiders featured RB this week and possibly next week as well.

 

Steven Jackson returned to a full practice today after being limited with a toe injury yesterday. The Falcons have said they want to give him the ball more often and we'll see if they follow through with that this week. If they are serious, it brings down the value of Jacquizz Rodgers from even flex consideration.

 

Willis McGahee sat out practice today. But he practiced in full yesterday and this is just his normal Thursday's off. He'll be fine to be a mediocre fantasy RB3 again this week.

 

As expected, Maurice Jones-Drew returned to practice today after sitting out yesterday. His knee is not a real concern and he'll be fine for this weekend.

 

The Patriots still haven't activated Shane Vereen from the IR/Designated for return list yet. They have until Saturday to do that if they want to have Vereen for this weekend. Even if active, word is that they'll likely ease him back in instead of throwing him back into his normal full role. I remember hearing the same thing said about the Giants' Andre Brown last week though. We may not know whether Vereen is playing or not until the weekend.

 

Carolina's Mike Tolbert missed practice today, but it's not injury related and he should return to the team in plenty of time to play Monday night. That said, he's a poor fantasy bet in Carolina's 3 headed RBBC.

 

 

Wide Receivers

 

Calvin Johnson was held out of practice for a second consecutive day today because of a listed knee issue. While it's not believed to be serious, after getting surprised with a week 5 inactive for Megatron after he followed a similar path that week, I am little concerned about fantasy's #1 WR this week. Hopefully we get positive reports tomorrow and you'll definitely want to be checking out my Saturday team by team news and notes for the latest on him. His teammate, Nate Burleson put in a limited practice today but is not expected to play yet as he is still getting back into game shape after being out since breaking his arm in a car accident after week 3.

 

Vincent Jackson put in a full practice today after being limited yesterday with a minor knee issue. He's fully expected to be fine for week 11 and barring the unexpected, you can start him with confidence this week.

 

Percy Harvin practiced in full today. It's all but a sure thing he is going to make his 2013 season debut this week and while he may be limited some, he's still an electrifying playmaker who may be able to do more with less playing time than many guys who get more playing time. Consider Harvin a strong WR3 for fantasy this week with a great matchup.

 

Roddy White was limited in practice again today with a listed shoulder issue. He's expected to be fine to play this week though. Of more concern for Atlanta is Harry Douglas. Douglas was held out of practice today because of a knee injury. Douglas wasn't on yesterday's practice report injury list so it's fair to wonder if this happened late in practice yesterday. Late week additions to the injury report are usually not a good sign and Douglas owners should be ready to have a backup plan ready to go if they were planning on starting him. We'll see how he's listed tomorrow.  

 

Cecil Shorts was held out of practice today because of his groin injury. He practiced in limited fashion yesterday and this is believed to just be a day of rest to not put too much pressure on it. Shorts should be okay for week 11 as long as he returns to at least a limited practice tomorrow.  

 

Mike Wallace was added to today's practice report injury list as being limited with a hamstring injury. Wallace wasn't listed yesterday so this may have occurred in practice today. We'll see how he's listed tomorrow. Those counting on Wallace will want to have a backup plan ready to go in case he doesn't play.

 

Michael Floyd returned to a limited practice today. This is a good sign that he will be likely be able to play for Arizona this week despite a sprained shoulder injury. He's only a WR4 this week though.

 

Jeremy Kerley has yet to practice this week because of his elbow injury and he is not going to play week 11. But the Jets are expecting to have Santonio Holmes back this week. Holmes will probably platoon with David Nelson opposite Stephen Hill this week.

 

Buffalo is expected to be without both of their starting WR's week 11. Steve Johnson and Robert Woods both missed practice again today. Johnson is dealing with a groin injury and Woods has an ankle injury. With Buffalo having the bye in week 12, it's a good bet the team sits both players this week so they can get as healthy as can be when the Bills return in week 13.

 

 

Tight Ends

 

Rob Gronkowski was limited in practice today but he's fully expected to be fine for Monday night. The Patriots are just being careful with him.

 

Vernon Davis practiced in limited fashion again today and it's looking like he will pass his concussion tests and be able to play this week. That is tentative though and we won't know for sure until Friday or Saturday. 

 

Jimmy Graham is expected to start without issue again this week despite his foot and elbow injury. He's been limited in practices.

 

Tony Gonzalez missed practice again today because of the toe injury he suffered week 10. Like I said yesterday: Gonzalez doesn't need to practice to play for Atlanta but it would be preferable for him to get some time in before the week is out. I fully expect that he'll be listed as Questionable on tomorrow's injury report and considered a game time decision.  

 

Martellus Bennett sat out practice today with a listed ankle injury. Bennett wasn't on yesterday's practice report injury list and there's been no word whether he suffered an injury yesterday, or if this is just a day off for him. Tentatively expect him to be okay for week 11 but be ready to have another player ready to go in his place if he sits tomorrow and ends up listed as Questionable on Friday's official injury report.

 

Jermaine Gresham practiced in full for a second consecutive day today and is fully expected to play week 11 after missing week 10 with a groin injury. He's not a strong fantasy option though and hurts Tyler Eifert's fantasy upside.

 

I suppose in context, 9-5 in week 10 was pretty good considering that no one in any of my football picks pools did better than 11-3 for the week. But in the grand scheme of things, it still falls short of what I need in order to get back to where I like to be at this point of the season. Thru 10 weeks, I expect to have nailed 100 games at least and instead in 2013, I sit at a disappointing 92-55. With only 7 weeks left I need to hit on an average of over 12 right each week to get to the annual goal of 180 correct. Not impossible, but certainly not an easy task.

 

With that in mind, here are my week 11 NFL Game Predictions:

 

Indianapolis 23, Tennessee 16

Arizona 31, Jacksonville 17

Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 17

Chicago 27, Baltimore 24

Cincinnati 20, Cleveland 17

Detroit 23, Pittsburgh 19

Buffalo 17, NY Jets 16

Houston 28, Oakland 17

Philadelphia 30, Washington 28

San Diego 21, Miami 14

Green Bay 23, NY Giants 20

Seattle 38, Minnesota 13

New Orleans 24, San Francisco 20

Denver 26, Kansas City 21

New England 27, Carolina 20

 

There you have them: my week 9 NFL game picks.

 

As for the Survivor Pool Lock in week 10, I knew I should have taken Tampa Bay over Miami instead of Tennessee over Jacksonville. But hindsight is always 20/20 and the Titans loss drops me to 7-3 on the season in the locks (I know: some locks, huh?). Here are the weekly results so far this season:

 

Week 1 (W; 21-17) Indianapolis over Oakland

Week 2 (L; 30-33) Philadelphia over San Diego

Week 3 (W; 45-17) Seattle over Jacksonville

Week 4 (W; 52-20) Denver over Philadelphia

Week 5 (W; 34-20) St. Louis over Jacksonville

Week 6 (W; 24-7) Kansas City over Oakland

Week 7 (L; 27-30) New England over NY Jets

Week 8 (W; 42-10) San Francisco over Jacksonville

Week 9 (W; 27-23) Dallas over Minnesota

Week 10 (L; 27-29) Tennessee over Jacksonville

 

While I fully expect Arizona to step up and beat Jacksonville by 2 touchdowns, I also have covered enough Arizona Cardinals teams over the years to know that this team usually struggles when travelling anywhere in the eastern time zone. Luckily, there is another game where I see a double digit win for a home team that I can take instead. I can't take Seattle as I already used them earlier this season but they would be the sure-fire bet if you haven't used them yet. Since I can't take them though I will go with a team led by a QB only making his 4th NFL start. Since Case Keenum took over as the Texans starting QB he has yet to win a game, but his 3 losses have come by a combined 7 total points. Houston is so close, and Oakland has a gimpy starting QB whose best asset is his ability to run. Terrelle Pryor's knee injury either will hinder him again this week, or prevent him from playing entirely. If Pryor doesn't play, undrafted rookie Matt McGloin would get his first career start. It's just the type of situation ripe for putting your faith in a team that boasts a 2-7 record.

 

My Survivor Pool Lock for Week 11 is: the Houston Texans over the Oakland Raiders.

 

Best of luck to all in your own picks this week!

Fantasy News and Notes 11-13-13:

 

BYE WEEKS: Dallas, St. Louis

 

Quarterbacks

 

As expected, Peyton Manning was held out of practice today because of his ankle injury. There's a chance he may miss tomorrow's practice as well, but he's fully expected to practice at least in limited fashion by Friday and he is currently expected to start week 11.

 

Aaron Rodgers has said he isn't going to play this week, but that he is hoping to come back in week 12. That would be a week earlier than expected as Rogers was originally expected to return on Thanksgiving in week 13. I get the feeling he's trying to rush himself back and I hope the Packers can hold on until Thanksgiving so he isn't coming back too soon from his collarbone injury. Scott Tolzien will start this week for Green Bay.

 

The bye in week 10 was enough time for Cleveland's Jason Campbell to get his ribs injury healed up enough for him to be able to play week 11. He's fully expected to start against Cincinnati this week.

 

Terrelle Pryor was held out of practice today to rest his injured knee. Pryor has been hindered the last 2 games because of the knee injury and there's even a chance he may not play week 11. Those counting on Pryor this week should have a backup ready to go in his place if he isn't able to practice by Friday.

 

Christian Ponder practiced today and he is tentatively expected to be able to start week 11 despite an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. While I admire his moxie, I am dubious of his chances for success this week on the road against Seattle and I wouldn't recommend starting him.

 

 

Running Backs

 

Atlanta has said they want to increase the rushing attempts for Steven Jackson and put more of a power running game in place. But Jackson has looked sluggish since returning from quad and hamstring injuries and I have my doubts about him being a guy who will start producing the numbers expected from him at the start of the season. I think we're going to see a RBBC with hi and Jacquizz Rodgers. But that's just me speculating. Officially, the team says they are going to get him the ball more often. We'll see what happens in actual games going forward. Jackson was limited in practice today because of a listed toe injury.

 

Darren McFadden missed practice today because of his hamstring injury. McFadden is not expected to play this week. Rashad Jennings should start and be the Raiders featured RB week 11.

 

Maurice Jones-Drew was held out of practice today. The team lists a knee for the reason but Wednesday's off has pretty much been the norm for MJD this season as he's an aging veteran RB with a lot of mileage on his legs. He'll be fine to play week 11.

 

Brandon Jacobs didn't practice again today and added a knee issue to go along with his hamstring. Jacobs has had his one magical game and is now clearly the 3rd RB at best behind Andre Brown and Peyton Hillis even when he gets healthy. I hope you've dropped Jacobs by now.

 

Instead of signing a street free agent, the Buccaneers signed Michael Hill off the Packers practice squad today. Hill will be the 3rd RB behind Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey.

 

 

Wide Receivers

 

Calvin Johnson was held out of practice today. It's believed to be just a day of rest for him though and not anything serious. He should return to a limited practice tomorrow.

 

Vincent Jackson was limited today because of a listed knee issue. He's not known to have an actual injury though so we'll keep an eye on this during the week. It should turn out to be nothing of concern. Jackson is due for a big week after 1 mediocre game and 2 clunkers in the last 3 games.

 

Dwayne Bowe will play week 11 despite having been arrested this past weekend for speeding and marijuana possession. Per the CBA the team can't discipline a player for a circumstance like this. Don't ask me, I don't make the rules. Bowe should be plenty motivated to have a good game to regain some favor with the organization and fans.

 

Neither of Buffalo's Steve Johnson nor Robert Woods practiced today. Johnson is dealing with a groin injury and Woods has an ankle injury. Neither player is looking like he will play week 11. T.J. Graham and Marquise Goodwin will probably start for the Bills this week.

 

Roddy White was limited in practice today but there's been no word about any setback suffered in week 10 so I assume he's just taking it kind of easy as he gets himself over hamstring and ankle injuries that have plagued him. What's curious is that he was limited because of a listed shoulder issue. Tentatively expect White to be fine for this week.

 

Jerome Simpson will play week 11 despite having been arrested for DUI over the weekend. Just like with Dwayne Bowe, the Vikings don't have the power to do anything in a case like this and the NFL won't do anything until the court system runs its course.  

 

Eddie Royal sat out practice today. Royal hasn't practiced at all the last 3 weeks but hasn't missed any game action and hasn't looked limited much by his toe injury. Likely he's not going to practice this week either but still play week 11.

 

Tennessee's Damian Williams has been officially ruled OUT  for Thursday night's game because of a quad injury. Williams is considered to be week to week.

 

 

Tight Ends

 

Vernon Davis has passed the first stages of his concussion protocols and is taking part in non-contact drills in practice. This is a positive sign that he should tentatively be okay to play this week. We'll know more as the week goes along.

 

Tony Gonzalez missed practice today because of the toe injury he suffered week 10. Gonzalez doesn't need to practice to play for Atlanta but it would be preferable for him to get some time in before the week is out. Hopefully we get more definitive word by Friday than "Questionable" and "Game Time Decision".  

 

Jeff Cumberland practiced today and apparently has been cleared for all contact drills. Cumberland suffered a concussion back in week 8. He should be a go for the Jets this week. The return of Kellen Winslow though curbs his upside

 

Jermaine Gresham practiced today and appears to be on track to play week 11 after missing week 10 with a groin injury. Gresham's presence is good for the Bengals, but bad for fantasy owners as all it does is cancel out the upside of Tyler Eifert.

 

 

Kickers

 

Although the Saints worked out a few kickers yesterday, none of them have been signed as of yet. For now I expect New Orleans will stick with Garrett Hartley, but if he doesn't start making FG's soon, he could be on the way out. 

With fantasy playoffs approaching, it's the savvy owner who makes the shrewd deals now to put himself in the best position to win. By knowing the matchups during weeks 14, 15, and 16 and knowing which players to trade for, and trade away, you can set yourself up for your championship run.

 

Below are the rankings vs. the run for all 32 NFL teams in weeks 14-16 based on the amount of fantasy points their opponents allow on average thru week 10. The higher the total score; the more favorable the matchups are in those 3 weeks combined.

 

Rushing Matchups Fantasy Playoffs Weeks

 

 

As you can see, the Green Bay Packers have the most favorable schedule against opposing run defenses of all 32 teams. Conversely, the Minnesota Vikings have the worst schedule vs. the run overall. Now, while I am a big advocate f trying to acquire Packers RB Eddie Lacy based on this, I would not be trading away Vikings RB Adrian Peterson straight up for him. Peterson has proven to be an elite fantasy RB who can get his points against any opponent. There is a measure of common sense that must be applied when using these rankings for determining what players to trade for and trade away.

 

For example, the Atlanta Falcons have been a miserable rushing offense this season. While Steven Jackson was supposed to provide them with the missing element of a power rushing attack, it just hasn't happened. And a split situation with Jacquizz Rodgers and maybe even Jason Snelling by week 14 is not farfetched to the imagination. I wouldn't recommend trading Zac Stacy of the Rams or Reggie Bush of the Lions (the 27th and tied for the 28th toughest schedule vs. the run) to acquire any Falcons RB.

 

However, if I could package a trade of Zac Stacy for Eddie Lacy, that I would strongly recommend doing.

 

And it also needs to be remembered which RB's give a lot of value in the passing game as well as the rushing game for their team. A guy like Reggie Bush not just gets you fantasy points through his legs, he gets receiving yards as well on a regular basis. So apply common sense to this.

 

That said, here are some guys to definitely target to acquire:

 

1) Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers.

2) Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals.

3) Demarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys.

4) Ben Tate, Houston Texans.

 

You can even target guys that are the better fantasy RB's but are part of a time share as well. Andre Ellington of the Arizona Cardinals, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller of the Buffalo Bills, and even Benjarvus Green-Ellis of Cincinnati. These guys may or may not be the best RB's for you to start those weeks, but having bench players who have superior matchups is certainly a lot better to have in case of an injury than having guys like Trent Richardson and Donald Brown, or Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell.

 

And even though I wouldn't trade away Adrian Peterson just because of the matchups, I might consider trading Peterson in a package deal that nets me great players with great matchups those weeks.

 

For example if you look at the passing matchups below, I could easily see making the offer of Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Marques Colston in return for Eddie Lacy and Brandon Marshall. You could even ask for a lesser player with great matchups as the 3rd player in the trade and maybe get Riley Cooper or Kendall Wright. The matchups for Lacy and Marshall are fantastic while the matchups for Peterson, Fitzgerald, and Colston (the 2 WR's having higher name value than actual fantasy value) are poor.

 

Here are the rankings vs. the pass for all 32 NFL teams in weeks 14-16 based on the amount of fantasy points their opponents allow on average thru week 10.

 

Passing Matchups Fantasy Playoffs Weeks

 

 

As you can see here, the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears have the best passing/receiving matchups for the fantasy playoffs. Nick Foles, DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper, along with Jay Cutler (and Josh McCown is not a bad safety net to have for Cutler), Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffery all are great players to have on your fantasy roster come the fantasy playoffs.

 

On the other side, the Saints, Cardinals, and Colts are all on the wrong side of the equation. Now just like with Adrian Peterson at RB, I certainly would not be giving up Saints QB Drew Brees in a trade that didn't net me a lot in return. Those 2 games against Carolina's 2nd ranked pass defense in weeks 14 and 16 are weighing heavily. But you know a stud QB like Brees is still going to get his fantasy points. So I wouldn't trade away Brees.

 

But I could trade away his pass catchers, maybe even Jimmy Graham because of the injury concerns. The Saints may have things locked up by week 16, and then they'd likely sit Graham so he can be as healthy as possible for the NFL playoffs. I could also definitely trade away anyone involved in the Cardinals or Colts passing games, including Andrew Luck. T.Y. Hilton might be the only guy from those 2 teams' passing games I would have a high degree of hope for producing quality fantasy points.

 

Look at trying to pry Aaron Rodgers away from the guy who has him in your league. Rodgers is fully expected back by week 14 and gets great matchups in weeks 14 and 15, and the Packers are likely to be fighting for a playoff spot.

 

Use these rankings to make the right trades to help put you in the best position to win your league's fantasy championship. The final piece of putting together your championship run is getting those great players who also have those great matchups during your playoff weeks. Go make it happen. 

Fantasy News and Notes 11-12-13:

 

BYE WEEKS: Dallas, St. Louis

 

Quarterbacks

 

Jake Locker suffered a Lisfranc foot injury and requires surgery. His season is done. Tennessee placed him on injured reserve today. Ryan Fitzpatrick will finish out the 2013 season as the Titans starting QB.

 

Jay Cutler suffered a high ankle sprain and he has been ruled OUT for week 11 already. Josh McCown will start in his place. Cutler may miss more than just one week.

 

Peyton Manning aggravated his ankle injury this past Sunday. An MRI came back negative though and while Manning may not practice as much as he normally does, he is currently fully expected to start week 11 for Denver as they take on the Chiefs.

 

Green Bay will start Scott Tolzien at QB this week as Seneca Wallace suffered a groin injury week 10 and is likely heading to injured reserve. Matt Flynn was signed to be Tolzien's backup until Aaron Rodgers can return. Rodgers is tentatively expected back in week 13 when the Packers play the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

 

Michael Vick is not expected to play week 11 because of his hamstring injury. With Nick Foles having some great performances, it's a good bet Vick won't get the job back even when the hamstring is healthy, which should be another week or two.  

 

Minnesota is tentatively expected to start Christian Ponder  week 11. That is if Ponder's dislocated non-throwing shoulder injury doesn't hinder him in practices. We should know more later in the week. Personally, with a matchup against Seattle, I think Ponder should be hoping Matt Cassel or Josh Freeman makes the start instead.  

 

 

Running Backs

 

Arian Foster was officially placed on injured reserve today because of his back injury. His season is over. Ben Tate takes over as the starter for Houston with Dennis Johnson as his top backup.

 

Tampa Bay placed Doug Martin on injured reserve last Friday, ending his season. His replacement, Mike James broke his ankle in last night's game and his season is done, too. The Bucs go forward with Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey as their 2 headed RBBC. Leonard is considered the "starter", but Rainey is a better rusher and could push his way past Leonard. It's likely the Bucs will go looking for a veteran to add to their RB corps.

 

New England is expected to activate Shane Vereen off the IR/Designated for Return list sometime this week. Vereen is expected to immediately take over as the 3rd down RB and likely be the top change of pace to Stevan Ridley. Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount are likely to be on the outside looking in going forward.

 

It's a safe bet that Darren McFadden isn't going to play week 11 because of his hamstring injury. The Raiders have nothing to gain by rushing him back and Rashad Jennings has done well filling in. Expect Jennings to be Oakland's featured RB again this week.  

 

 

Wide Receivers

 

Seattle activated Percy Harvin from the PUP list yesterday and he is expected to play week 11. Harvin may be limited some in his first game action of the season after having had surgery to repair a hip injury suffered back in July, but he at least can be considered. He may even be chomping at the bit to play against his former team. His return is expected to hurt the fantasy potential of Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin. Golden Tate should retain his value and may even benefit some.

 

Buffalo's Steve Johnson suffered a groin injury and his status for week 11 is very uncertain. Johnson has battled several injuries this season and this one may cause him to miss more than one game. But we won't know for sure until later in the week. It's possible Buffalo could be without both of its normal starting WR's as Robert Woods is no sure bet to return this week after missing last week with an ankle sprain. T.J. Graham and Marquise Goodwin could end up starting for the Bills.

 

Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe was arrested Sunday night for speeding and possession of marijuana. While it's unlikely the league itself will do anything about the incident before it goes through the court process, it is conceivable the team may take disciplinary action of its own. We'll see whether they do anything about it later in the week.

 

Minnesota is debating whether to suspend Jerome Simpson for week 11 after he was popped for DUI over the weekend. Considering the matchup is against Seattle and I think I'd stay away from Simpson regardless of whether he's active or not.

 

Tennessee's Damian Williams is considered week to week with a quad injury. He isn't going to play Thursday night when Tennessee faces Indianapolis. Williams had been serving as the Titans #3 WR and this could mean we see a bit more of rookie Justin Hunter. I doubt we see much of Kenny Britt.

 

Michael Floyd suffered a sprained shoulder injury but the Cardinals say they expect him to be okay to play week 11. We'll see whether Floyd practices at all this week. If he misses practices, I have a hard time believing he'd be effective in the game even if active. Andre Roberts could end up starting.

 

The Jets expect Santonio Holmes to return to game action this week. Holmes has missed the last few weeks with a hamstring injury. He'll likely be mixed in quite a bit with Jeremy Kerley expected to miss the game with an elbow injury.

 

Indianapolis activated Da'Rick Rogers from the practice squad. Normally I wouldn't mention something like this, but Rogers was a favorite of mine in the NFL draft as he has tons of talent, but came with tons of off-field issues too. With Darrius Heyward-Bey not performing, and the Colts having no one else besides LaVon Brazil and Griff Whalen in his way, Rogers at least has an outside chance of being relevant if he keeps his head in the game.

 

San Francisco released Kyle Williams today. Williams had started a few games for the 49ers earlier this season but was predictably ineffective. This shouldn't affect anyone's fantasy rosters.

 

 

Tight Ends

 

Vernon Davis suffered a concussion week 10 and his status is uncertain for week 11. Davis will need to pass all concussion tests before being allowed to play in a game. While some may think this would mean a bump up for rookie Vance McDonald, McDonald has had opportunities before and never taken advantage of them. Hopefully we know more by Thursday about whether Davis will play week 11 or not.

 

Tony Gonzalez suffered a toe injury week 10 and his status for week 11 is very uncertain. Hopefully we know more about whether it's a serious injury or not later in the week.

 

Kellen Winslow is expected back for the Jets this week now that he's finished serving a league imposed 4 game suspension. However, he'll only have any value if the bye week wasn't enough time for Jeff Cumberland to get over his concussion.

 

It's tentatively expected that Jermaine Gresham will be able to play week 11 for Cincinnati. Gresham missed week 10 because of a groin injury but reportedly was close to being able to play.

 

Ben Watson suffered a concussion week 10 and he'll need to pass his concussion tests to be available for his usual nominal role in the Saints offense week 11.

 

 

Kickers

 

New Orleans worked out a few free agent kickers today. Garrett Hartley has missed 4 of his last 6 FGA's, and while he's not believed to be in immediate danger of losing his job, the team is updating their list in case he doesn't get it corrected soon. 

2013 Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game

 

Thru Week 10