Top 10 Fantasy Wide Receivers in 2013
There's a Clear Top 6, but 7-10 are Excellent Consolation Prizes
Tier 1
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
Megatron stands alone in the top tier of fantasy WR's in 2013. He is right in the middle of the prime of his career and set a new NFL record for receiving yards in 2012 with 1,964. The only thing that was disappointing in 2012 was the only 5 touchdowns he scored. But I counted about 6 times where he was tackled inside the 5 yard line in 2012 and with a guy of Johnson's physical size and strength, that's just not likely to be repeated. He scored 28 TD's between 2010 and 2011 so we know he usually gets into the end zone to go along with the great yardage totals. He's to be the first WR taken in any fantasy draft and usually in the first round.
Tier 2
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
Bryant almost singlehandedly won fantasy championships for owners with 224 yards and 2 TD's in week 16 of last season. Bryant finally blossomed over the last 8 games of the 2012 season and turned into the dominant WR he's always had the skills to be but never put it altogether. He put it altogether in that span by catching 50 passes for 878 yards and 10 TD's. If Bryant starts the 2013 season the same way he finished 2012, there's no reason to not expect him to challenge to join Calvin Johnson in Tier 1 as one of the truly elite fantasy WR's.
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
While Jones didn't jump into the elite category of fantasy football WR's in 2012, he did take another step in that direction. 79 receptions, 1,198 yards, and 10 TD's improved upon his rookie season and entering his 3rd NFL season, Jones should be primed to take another step up in production. Jones is another impressive physically gifted WR and could challenge for elite WR status himself. But in Atlanta, Roddy White is still there and will get his targets, Tony Gonzalez will get his as well, but Jones is just a superior talent and I expect Matt Ryan is going to look his way plenty too in 2013.
Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears
The reunion with Jay Cutler couldn't have gone better for Marshall last season. His 118 receptions were tied for second most in the league. His 1,508 yards were 3rd most. And 11 TD's tied for 4th most at the position. And they all were new career bests for Marshall. Jay Cutler has an uncanny knack for throwing Marshall the ball a ton. New head coach Marc Trestman is known for his prolific passing attacks and that bodes well for another great season by Marshall. I won't be surprised at all if Marshall has a better statistical season in 2013 than he did in 2012. There's a little concern about his recovery from off-season hip surgery, but Marshall misses few games because of injuries and I don't expect the hip will be anything to worry about.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
In 2012, Green was on a roll from weeks 2-11. In that span, he caught at least one TD in every game. But from week 12 on, he only caught one more TD pass. Green is a definite stud WR who would have had even better numbers if QB Andy Dalton didn't fade down the final few weeks again. It could also help him out if another WR emerged as a legitimate weapon opposite him. But even with the limitations around him, Green's 97 receptions, 1,350 yards, and 11 TD's show the upside he has to post even better numbers in the future, especially if Dalton can get over his two year track record of fading badly down the stretch.
Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
The arrival of Peyton Manning to Denver paid big dividends for those who had Thomas on their fantasy rosters in 2012. And while he did have 4 games with less than 50 receiving yards, he also had 7 games with over 100 receiving yards and finished with 94 receptions, 1,434 yards, and 10 TD's. Another year with Peyton Manning just makes Thomas have an even greater chance to compete for elite fantasy status. The addition of Wes Welker isn't going to affect him much in my opinion as Thomas is an all-purpose weapon who excels at every aspect of being a WR while Welker is more the master of the slot and more a threat to Eric Decker's production than Thomas's. I don't any reason to think Thomas can't duplicate his 2012 stats this year.
Tier 3
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
Fitzgerald is the second best WR in the NFL (behind Megatron) but last season proved that a nightmare QB situation can affect WR. I can't imagine that anybody was happier than Fitz when the Arizona Cardinals acquired Carson Palmer. Fitz might have been happy with Arnold Palmer after the way Cardinals QB's were so horribly off-target in 2012. There are concerns about how well a leaky offensive line will protect Palmer, but he certainly represents an upgrade at the QB position and the fantasy arrow is pointing back up for Fitzgerald. A return to 1,100 yards and close to double digit TD's is certainly reasonable to expect.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
Although there is a little concern about a preseason biceps injury, the Packers say that Cobb is in no danger of being limited by it so I'm taking that at face value. There's talent galore at WR in Green Bay, but Cobb has proven too valuable a weapon for the Packers to not use him more in their passing attack. And if they do, that should mean a season where he catches 80+ passes with over 1,000 receiving yards and 10 TD's. Add in that he sometimes rushes the ball (132 rushing yards on 10 attempts last season) and he straddles that WR1 line for fantasy purposes.
Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
Johnson again posted huge reception and yardage numbers in 2012 with 112 catches for 1,598 yards, but he also once again failed to score many TD's. Johnson has never reached double digit TD's in any season of his career and age is starting to sap him of his once near elite speed. Johnson is a target monster though and always a threat for huge games so it's hard to leave him out of the top 10. But he's no longer at a point in his career where he's in that group of WR's that challenge to be elite. I think he still has at least one very good season left in him though.
Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2012 saw Jackson set new career highs in receptions (72) and yards (1,384) in his first season with Tampa Bay. 8 receiving TD's was good, but could have been better as he only had 1 in the last 6 games. That coincided with a fade by QB Josh Freeman down the stretch in which Freeman (who threw for 21 TD's in the first 10 games) only threw 6 TD passes total in the last 6 games. The offensive system is the same this year as it was in 2012 so there shouldn't be any drop off in Jackson's production. I actually think it's very likely Jackson and Freeman will continue to develop chemistry this year and that Jackson's TD numbers will increase.
Fantasy's Top 13 RB's in 2013
The Surest Things at RB this Season
RB's Tier 1
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Peterson's 2012 season proved that he is in a class by himself at the RB position. Coming off a torn ACL, AP managed to rush for the second highest yardage total in a single NFL season with 2,097 yards. He also scored 13 total TD's for a third consecutive season and has had double digit TD's for six seasons in a row. Peterson said his goal for 2013 is to rush for 2,500 yards and while that's almost unimaginable, after the type of season he had in 2012, I've learned to not bet against him. A more realistic outlook is about 1,800 yards and another 13 or more TD's. Unless your league requires you to start more than 1 QB, AP should be the first pick in practically every fantasy draft in 2013.
RB's Tier 2
Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns
Richardson has put an off-season shin injury behind him and looks ready to roll in 2013. While he only put up 950 rushing yards in 2012, he also caught 51 passes for another 367 yards and scored a combined 12 TD's as a rookie. These numbers are good, but become outstanding when you consider he had arthroscopic knee surgery the second week of August and was able to start week 1 despite it not being totally healed. Then in October he broke 2 ribs and continued to play each week. His only missed game was in week 17 when it was senseless to put him in after he suffered an ankle sprain in week 16. Richardson is healthy heading into the regular season and I expect he's going to challenge for elite fantasy RB status in 2013.
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A preseason concussion is slight cause for concern, but reportedly Martin is over it and is ready to go week 1. Martin was everything advertised in 2012 as a rookie. He exploded in week 9 for 251 yards and 4 TD's and that quickly ascended him to fantasy stardom. Even if you take that one week away, Martin still had 1203 rushing yards, 451 receiving yards, and 8 total TD's. Those are still impressive numbers and unlike most rookie RB's, Martin actually seemed to get stronger as the season went on and showed no signs of wearing down and hitting the rookie wall. Martin is a full time, 3 down featured RB for the Bucs and enjoys the benefits of an underrated passing game to keep defenses honest. His floor for 2013 is 1,200 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, and 10 TD's, while his ceiling is to finish among the elite. There's no reason to not think of Martin as belonging with Richardson in the tier of fantasy RB's just under Adrian Peterson in 2013.
RB's Tier 3
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
Lynch has simply been outstanding the last two seasons. He has a combined 2,794 rushing yards, 408 receiving yards, and 25 TD's in that span. Even though the Seahawks have two talented RB's behind him in Robert Turbin and rookie Christine Michael, there is no reason to think Seattle will reduce his workload. Lynch has proven to be too good to be in a split with any other RB. There are no reasons to not expect another great campaign in 2013. There was some concern earlier in the year, but a summer DUI case has been pushed off until the last week of December. Lynch is locked in as a strong fantasy RB1.
Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots
With 1,263 rushing yards and 12 TD's in 2012, Ridley established himself as the primary RB in the Patriots offense. He is their featured RB in rushing situations and also their goal line behemoth. The only thing you could want more from Ridley is a presence as a receiver out of the backfield. He loses value in the PPR format as he only caught 6 passes last season and will cede 3rd down RB duties to Shane Vereen. The Patriots are considered to be a passing offense, but in 2012 they had the second most rushing attempts of any team; were 7th in rushing yards; and NO team had more than their 25 rushing TD's. I can't think of any reason why you shouldn't expect Ridley to have another 1,200+ yards and another 10+ TD's in 2013.
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
A training camp foot injury caused concern in the fantasy world about Charles, but it turned out to be minor and he is fully expected to be all systems go for week 1 of the regular season. Andy Reid has always placed a reliance on one RB while he was in Philadelphia and you can bet Charles will be his man in KC. Charles ran for over 1,500 yards in 2012 and caught 35 passes for another 236. You can certainly expect that reception total to nearly double in 2013 as Reid has always emphasized throwing to his RB's and with weak armed Alex Smith at the helm, Charles will get more than his fair share of targets. The only problem with Charles so far in his career is his low amount of TD's scored. If he would only get into the end zone more often, he would be a fantasy gold mine.
Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
Rice failed to duplicate his tremendous success he had in 2011, but he was still solid in 2012. Rice has always been one of the best receiving RB's in the game and with Anquan Boldin gone, and Dennis Pitta likely out for the season, I can see a lot of passes going Rice's way. Especially since the Ravens don't have any proven WR replacing Boldin opposite Torrey Smith. Although there is some concern with second year RB Bernard Pierce having showed very well last season, I don't think Rice's numbers will dip any from his 1,143 rushing yards, 478 receiving yards, and 10 total TD's. If anything, I expect the Ravens will be a little more reliant on their running game this year. The only thing I would recommend is to handcuff Pierce to Rice as Pierce proved fully capable last season if called upon for an increased role.
LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
McCoy could be in for a monster 2013 season under new head coach Chip Kelly. Kelly's offense is supposed to feature an exotic rushing attack and McCoy is expected to be the focal point of it. McCoy was actually on pace to better his 2011 yardage totals both rushing and receiving in 2012 before a concussion caused him to miss 4 games late in the season. The only thing he wasn't bettering was his TD numbers. He had only 2 rushing TD's and 3 receiving TD's after scoring 20 combined in 2011. Given the NFL's stringent protocols now when it comes to concussions McCoy is a bit of a concern after having suffered such a severe one last season. But you can't draft scared and McCoy proved himself as being capable of elite fantasy numbers back in 2011. Even though his backup, Bryce Brown, has ball security issues, Brown showed last season that he can be an explosive player if anything were to happen to McCoy. Owner's who draft McCoy should definitely think about handcuffing Brown to him.
C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
Spiller will finally get the chance this year to be the featured RB to start a season. Spiller averaged an insane 6.0 yards per rush attempt in 2012 on his way to 1244 yards and 6 TD's and proved very efficient in the passing game as well catching 43 passes for 459 yards and 2 more TD's. The new coaching regime has stated they will run him until he can't run anymore. Now that he will be the definite starter and not splitting as many carries with Fred Jackson, Spiller look like a serious challenger for top 5 RB status in 2013.
Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins
Trust Mike Shanahan to take a 6th round pick and make him the next great RB. In 2012, Morris rushed for 1,613 yards and 13 TD's on a whopping 335 carries. The only thing missing from Morris's stat line was receptions as he only had 11 on the season. While it's hoped he becomes more involved in the passing game, Washington is expected to have Roy Helu as their primary 3rd down RB so an increase in receptions seems unlikely. While we've all become jaded when it comes to trusting Mike Shanahan to ride a stud a second consecutive season, it's hard to imagine that Morris doesn't get at least 17-20 carries every games and score double digit TD's. He proved to be too good not to last season.
Arian Foster, Houston Texans
The Texans have been careful with Foster in training camp and preseason by allowing him to rest up a back issue stemming from the calf issue he suffered back in OTA's. There are even some who have dropped Foster from being worthy of a first round pick because of the risk factor for a guy who has been as heavily relied upon in his team's offense as Foster has been the last 3 seasons in Houston. Foster's rushing yards average dropped to a career low of 4.1 in 2012, but that doesn't change the fact he ran for 1,424 yards and scored more TD's (17) than any other RB. Foster has logged a lot of mileage in the last 3 seasons, and the Texans are hinting that they may have more of a time share between him and backup Ben Tate. But I really have a hard time seeing a reason for Foster to drop out of the top 10 fantasy RB's in 2013. But I do recommend spending the 7th or 8th round pick on Ben Tate for the handcuff. Tate has proven capable of producing quality fantasy points when called upon to fill in for Foster.
Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons
I think Jackson is being undervalued as the new featured RB in Atlanta. Jackson recently turned 30 years old and he does have a lot of mileage on his legs already from his 9 years in St. Louis, but he is a physical freak. He is both a big powerful RB, and an excellent receiving RB. He's rushed for over 1,000 yards in the last 8 seasons and the only thing that had been missing from his fantasy stats was touchdowns. That was more of a lack of a passing threat than anything else in St. Louis, and it's a problem he won't have in Atlanta. The Falcons ran a gassed Michael Turner for an average of 14 carries per game and 10 TD's in 2012 so I'd be surprised if Jackson, who should still have another 2 years at a high level, has anything less than 1,200 rushing yards, 50 receptions, and 10 TD's in 2013 as the Falcons new featured RB.
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Forte is going to love playing in new coach Marc Trestman's offense. Forte will be the primary RB and also get a chance to get back to catching a lot of passes. Forte should be a strong yardage performer and a solid starting fantasy RB, but whether he will split goal line carries with Michael Bush again this season is unknown. Forte's knock in the past has been he struggles as a short yardage and goal line RB and that's the only thing that keeps him from being more than a borderline fantasy RB1/2. Bush is back as his backup and makes a worthy late round handcuff to Forte.
New to Drafting? Get Our FREE Draft Guide
See General Drafting Guidelines Plus Round-By-Round Instructions Thru Round 4
If you've only been playing fantasy football for 1-2 years, your upcoming fantasy draft may bring more fear than excitement!
Our free download this week takes the fear out of your draft by delivering an entire chapter on General Drafting Guidelines. Every draft is different, and every league is different. One thing we STRONGLY recommend to those who are new to fantasy football is not to get involved in certain types of leagues the first year or two of playing fantasy football. This guide tells you the types of leagues to avoid.
Plus, the specific round by round instructions included in this week's eBook chapter giveaway are crafted around a basic 10-12 team league that requires you to start only 1 quarterback. If you play in a league where you start 2 quarterbacks every week, the dynamic of your draft changes significantly. It becomes a much higher priority to select 2 quality quarterbacks in the first few rounds. Having the advantage of two quarterbacks you can count on to provide a high amount of fantasy points reliably every week will offset any disadvantages you may incur by waiting on the WR position. We give you round-by-round instructions, through Round 4, gratis.
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If you play in a league where you start 2 quarterbacks every week, you should likely spend your first 4 draft picks on 2 RB's and 2 QB's. And you may have to take the QB's in the first two rounds. It will depend on how the other owners in your league are executing their own draft strategy.
The guide is excerpted from Russ Bliss's "How to Win at Fantasy Football: Secrets of Gridiron Greatness," which is available free to Championship Package members, as well as a Kindle download on Amazon.com.
To get your copy of the guide, just click here.
The Season Approaches
Few Surprises Likely in First NFL Cuts
And the cuts begin.
We've seen 3 weeks of preseason and NFL teams are now in the process of making their first round of roster cuts. By Tuesday afternoon every NFL team must get down to 75 players. Usually these first cuts don't involve anyone of fantasy note, but they are things the smart fantasy player pays attention to as sometimes a favorite sleeper is among those let go.
Names of Note
WR Braylon Edwards
Edwards must have very little left in the tank if the talent starved Jets are releasing him.
WR Jordan Norwood
Highly thought of once in Cleveland, he'll latch on somewhere else as a #4 WR.
WR Da'Rick Rogers
A very talented rookie WR that went undrafted in April because of a multitude of off-field issues, Rogers was in a prime spot to compete for a job in Buffalo, but apparently after good showings in OTA's, he couldn't keep it together. Rogers has the physical skills and talent to be in the NFL, but the question is whether he has the head to stay out of trouble and the heart to put forth the effort both on and off the field. We'll see if someone takes a chance on his upside.
And really, outside of these three, there hasn't been anyone of note that has been released yet.
The real intrigue will come on Saturday, August 31st. That's the deadline for NFL teams to make their final cuts to get down to their opening day 53 men rosters. With all of preseason wrapping up Thursday night, it's very likely we'll see some very interesting names floating across the news feeds Friday into Saturday.
Opening day of the regular season is almost upon us. All too soon, the regular season will be a distant memory.
2013 Handcuff RB's
Who Is a Must and Who is a Must Not
To handcuff or not to handcuff? That is the question.
At least it's the question fantasy players ask themselves continually during their fantasy drafts. When it comes to our stud RB's, there is always that voice inside of our heads saying "He might get hurt. If you don't take his backup you're going to regret it!"
Some guys are easy to know to handcuff because either they are a current injury risk or have demonstrated a propensity for injury during their careers. Arian Foster entering 2013 is a prime example of that and his backup Ben Tate has proven capable of putting up quality fantasy stats in his absence in the past. Others are easier to handcuff because they have a high quality backup who has showed enough to make you think the backup could likely be a solid starter on his own if he weren't behind someone else. Ray Rice is the example here as his backup, Bernard Pierce, looked impressive when spelling Rice throughout last season and the playoffs. Pierce put up 532 rushing yards on 108 carries in the regular season playing the understudy, and then gained another 202 yards rushing on 39 rushing attempts in the playoffs. Pierce's 4.9 yards per rush attempt in the regular season and his 5.2 in the post season both bettered Rice's (4.4 regular season; 3.6 post). Both Tate and Pierce are guys you know are worth having for the insurance policy they represent.
But not every strong fantasy RB needs to be handcuffed. In fact there are two top 5 RB's (in my opinion top 5 anyway) in 2013 that there is no need to handcuff anyone to him because the situation behind each one is as clear as mud:
Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns
When Dion Lewis went down with injury and likely to miss the entire season, Richardson's handcuff went out the door. Lewis had taken advantage of both lackluster performances by Montario Hardesty and Hardesty's penchant for injury to usurp Hardesty in that role. Hardesty can't be trusted and the Browns have unspectacular Brandon Jackson and FB/HB hybrid Chris Ogbonnaya as fall back options. None of Hardesty, Jackson, and Ogbonnaya is worth using a draft pick for the handcuff.
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It still has yet to be determined who will be the top backup to Martin in 2013. The candidates are Peyton Hillis, Brian Leonard, Michael Smith, and rookie Mike James. Hillis gets the name recognition but he's proven to be a one season wonder while in Cleveland and has never recaptured anything that even closely resembled that magical 2010 season. We doubt he does in Tampa Bay either even if called on to try. Leonard is a RB/FB hybrid with no special qualities. Smith has failed to impress despite playmaking speed. James might be the likeliest of the group to be a lead RB if anything were to happen to Martin, but even then we'd fully expect a committee approach that would limit what he could realistically be counted on for.
Remember this when it's your turn and you're debating the handcuff.
Free Guide Helps Fantasy Veterans and Newbies Understand Tiering, ADP
Guide breaks down two most popular draft strategies: which is best?
Every year, we're asked about the two most popular (and successful) ways to approach a fantasy football draft. The two types: Tiering and Value Based Drafting (VBD). Which is best?
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Even if you're a 20-year fantasy veteran, the explanation of how Value Based Drafting is set up and works, can be a nice tool to add to your fantasy football draft arsenal.
Here's an excerpt:
Tiering is a draft strategy in which you lump your cheat sheet list of players at each position into “Tiers.” These Tiers represent the amount of fantasy points you expect these players to score. All players within each Tier are guys you believe will likely finish the regular season with about the same amount of fantasy points. The essence of Tiering is that the names of the players are insignificant; it’s the point production of the Tier group that matters.
For example, you’ve ranked your RBs and think there are three who are clearly above all the others. You think that each of them stands a good chance of being the Number 1 fantasy RB for the season and that all three will likely finish with the same amount of fantasy points. They would be your Tier 1 RBs.
To download your copy of the Guide, gratis, simply "Like" us on Facebook. If you're already a Facebook fan, head to our page now to download the guide.
The guide is excerpted from Russ Bliss's 69-page eBook, "How to Win at Fantasy Football: Secrets of Gridiron Greatness," which is available free to Championship Package members, as well as a Kindle download on Amazon.com.
To get your copy of the guide, just click here. Remember, our Draft Analyzer can produce printable tier sheets for your fantasy football draft!
Enjoy, and best of luck on your upcoming draft.
Fantasy Football News Updates
A look at some of the top news items from the last couple of days
QUARTERBACKS
*-The Eagles have named Michael Vick their starting QB. If you've been paying attention to my blog all during the offseason you know I never really thought Chip Kelly was having an "open competition" as much as he was trying to light a fire in Vick. Well, he did and Vick has looked very good at running Kelly's offense. Vick can be drafted as a low end fantasy QB1 with huge risk/reward potential. The rewards we all know about as Vick can be a one man fantasy wrecking crew some games. The risk is that he gets injured or turns the ball over too easily. Unfortunately we've seen the former only a couple of times while the latter historically has happened more often.
*-Washington is optimistic Robert Griffin 3rd will be ready to start the regular season. While it's unfair to compare rehabs between players, his recovery from his torn knee ligaments has been as incredible as Adrian Peterson's was last year. I fully expect RG3 to be starting week 1 for the Redskins and to be a very good fantasy starting QB.
*-Cleveland's Brandon Weeden has "won" the Browns job. Not that he had much competition for it between Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer. Weeden has looked excellent running Rob Chudzinski's/Norv Turner's offense in preseason but I still would like to see it translate into regular season games before I think of Weeden as anything more than a mediocre fantasy backup QB with some upside.
*-Buffalo's rookie E.J. Manuel is already into his rehab after having a minor knee procedure done just this past Sunday. While Manuel isn't going to play in either of the Bills last two preseason games, there is a chance he may be ready for week one. But I think if Kevin Kolb can avoid looking lost and making mistakes, Buffalo probably won't rush Manuel back for week 1. But make no mistake, it would be a colossal upset if Kolb was still starting games when Manuel is finally ready to come back. Manuel is the better pick as a fantasy QB3.
*-I don't care that Blaine Gabbert has won the Jaguars starting QB job. Unless you go 3 deep at QB in your league, he doesn't belong on any fantasy rosters.
*-The competition between Geno Smith and mark Sanchez for the Jets starting job is likely to come down to whether Smith just looks competent this week when he starts against the Giants. That is "if" he starts against the Giants. Smith is scheduled to be the starter but the ankle injury that made him week 2's game may prevent him. It might actually be better for Smith if he doesn't start as that means Sanchez gets to go back and show why the Jets drafted Smith in the first place.
RUNNING BACKS
*-Pittsburgh RB Le'Veon Bell has been diagnosed with a Lisfranc injury in his foot and he is expected to be out 6-8 weeks as he tries to recover from it without having surgery. That puts him likely out for the first 4 games of the 2013 season at least and I think it's very likely he's out longer. While I have no medical expertise in these things, I think the combo of Lisfranc foot injury and guys who make a living running has had some pretty dismal outcomes when the player tries to come back too soon. Bell's fantasy projections have taken a critical hit while the projections for both Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer have gone up by a bit as there is likely now to be a split situation between them. We could also see a bit more of La'Rod Stephens-Howling as well. If I was a guessing man, and I guess it's my job to be one, I'd say Redman is likeliest to lead a RBBC including Dwyer to a larger degree and the Hyphen to a lesser degree. I would think of Redman as a middling RB4, Dwyer a high end RB5, and the Hyphen not on the draft radar still. I'd also say I'll be surprised if we see before Halloween, if at all in 2013.
*-Arian Foster was activated from the PUP list by the Houston Texans. It's a positive sign that he is just about ready for action, and should be fine for week 1. But I strongly advise not waiting too long to handcuff Ben Tate to him. Tate's ADP is the 37th RB selected around the 93rd pick overall. In a 12 team league that would be the 9th pick of Round 8. I would recommend being earlier than this to be sure you get him. Tate has proven to be more than capable of putting up solid fantasy points in the past when Foster has missed time.
*-The Rams have named Daryl Richardson as their "starting" RB to begin the 2013 season. While Richardson's lack of size makes him a poor bet to hold up for long if the Rams give him 17+ carries every game, he at least will be the lead RB and 3rd down RB so a combined 17 carries and receptions is certainly attainable. His fantasy value hovers in the mid fantasy RB3 range. One of my favorite sleepers after the draft, Rams rookie RB Zac Stacy has failed to distinguish himself at all. Too bad as I thought Stacy had some real potential. But for now, he, and Isaiah Pead, the other Rams RB is undraftable except in leagues with deep bench spots.
*-Green Bay rookie Eddie Lacy is likely to start rising up draft boards as he solidifies his spot as the Packers top RB. Lacy was, in my opinion, the best RB coming out of college in April's NFL draft and he couldn't have gone to a better spot than Green Bay. For the past few years the Packers have been an elite passing offense that has struggled to close out games against opponents because they lacked a RB powerful enough to do it with. Lacy gives them that RB. He may get spelled occasionally by either DuJuan Harris or Johnathan Franklin, but Lacy is likely to flirt with both 1,000 yards and double digit TD's. Currently being drafted as a RB3, Lacy is a steal as that.
*-Ahmad Bradshaw is finally in pads at practices. Bradshaw's been off to the side most of the time the last few weeks as he recovers from off-season foot surgery. Bradshaw's foot ailments and his ability to play through them more often than not the last few years have become nigh legendary. But I seriously question if he can be fed the rock more than 15 times per game without this becoming a real issue during the regular season. While Vick Ballard is a middling talent, he at least showed heart and put in top effort despite not having special skills. Ballard is a smart later round handcuff to those who take a chance on Bradshaw as a RB3. I wouldn't advise Bradshaw as a fantasy RB2 unless you get shut out of the higher tiered RB's because you went after another position earlier in your draft.
*-The Miami Dolphins are actually making me believe they are intent on having a RBBC between Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas. Miller is a flashy second year player with explosiveness to his game but also makes mistakes. Thomas is just a plodding RB who lacks speed and isn't very elusive or creative as a runner. I would imagine that Miller's superior talent will eventually push Thomas into a complementary role, but to hear the news out of Miami, you'd swear we are headed towards a full blown split in playing time between them. This makes Miller a risky fantasy RB2 and could mean Thomas is being undervalued at his current RB5 draft status.
*-Carolina's Jonathan Stewart is inching closer to starting the season on the PUP list and missing the first 6 weeks. Stewart had surgery on both ankles early in the year and still hasn't been able to practice. It appears that DeAngelo Williams will be the lead RB and we'll probably see both Mike Tolbert and rookie Kenjon Barner get some playing time as well. Williams is a middling RB3 who will usually boom or bust on a weekly basis showing little consistency. Stewart is off the charts as anything more than a late round flier in case he pulls off a remarkable recovery in the next two weeks.
*-The Colts traded RB Delone Carter to the Ravens in exchange for WR David Reed. This will affect nothing in fantasy football as neither player is even guaranteed to make his new team's final roster, let alone be relevant.
WIDE RECEIVERS
*-Giants WR Victor Cruz is not likely to play in either of the Giants remaining two preseason games. Cruz has a bruised heel and while the Giants are being very cautionary by having him hobbling around on crutches with a walking boot, he is not considered to be in danger of missing week 1 of the regular season. Actually, I'm pretty happy they're going to extremes with him.
*- Green Bay WR Randall Cobb has a biceps injury and isn't expected to play at all in the preseason. It's not considered serious though and there's no reason to downgrade Cobb from being a low-end fantasy WR1. His teammate Jordy Nelson though, Nelson underwent surgery to repair nerve damage in his knee the first week of August. His original timetable for returning was 4-6 weeks, putting his status for week 1 of the regular season in some doubt. So far I haven’t lost faith in him being a solid fantasy WR2 who can turn into a WR1 very quickly.
*-Santonio Holmes recovery from foot surgery in the off-season isn't going too well and it's better than 50/50 he starts the season on the PUP list. There had been some encouraging reports about Holmes the last two weeks, but either he's had a setback or those reports were from the overly optimistic. There's no need to draft a Jets WR this year. Stephen Hill is the only one who has enough upside to even be considered as an upside deep bench guy.
*-Don't be surprised if Seahawks WR Sidney Rice doesn't play at all in the preseason. Rice is still having knee issues and while some are thinking Rice could benefit from Percy Harvin being out the first 12 games of 2013, I'll say it now (and have been saying it in my blog since July): Golden Tate is the one who benefits the most and is the best Seattle WR to have for fantasy purposes.
TIGHT ENDS
*-Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski is sounding unlikely to be ready for week 1 of the regular season but there hasn't been any definitive word so there is still hope. You know how tight-lipped the Patriots are when it comes to injuries. Gronkowski hasn't been ruled out for the start of the regular season but he's no lock to play the first couple of weeks either, and could still start the year on the PUP list (meaning he would have to miss at least the first 6 games). We know he'll be back at some time and we know he's a stud when he plays so while you shouldn't downgrade him from being a great pick for a starting fantasy TE, if you do draft him you need to either draft a second TE who is capable of starting until he returns, or you could take a flier on Patriots undrafted rookie Zach Sudfeld. Sudfeld has been the talk of training camp and it is now believed he has leapfrogged Jake Ballard and Daniel Fells in the receiving TE role replacing Gronkowski. The hype for Sudfeld has translated into training camp and preseason games and I'm buying in. If you want to draft Gronk, be ready to grab Sudfeld in the later rounds as insurance.
*-Tony Gonzalez has reported to the Falcons and will step right in with the starters at practices. The Falcons agreed to let Gonzalez have an extended summer vacation in return for him returning for one final try to get to a Super Bowl. Gonzalez may not be among the elite fantasy TE's anymore, but he's still a reliable fantasy TE1.
KICKERS
*-Tampa Bay signed kicker Rian Lindell as the likely replacement for Lawrence Tynes. Tynes was signed to replace Connor Barth earlier in the offseason after Barth tore his Achilles tendon in July, but Tynes has developed a toe injury and it's believed he won't be able to kick this season. Lindell should be considered the likely kicker for the Bucs this season, but unless he isn't worth drafting with so many other, better kicker options available.
*-Arizona signed former Miami kicker Dan Carpenter. After incumbent Cardinals kicker Jay Feely missed a FG in week 2 of the preseason, the Cardinals are putting Feely on notice with this signing. We tentatively expect Feely to remain the Cardinals kicker, but this will play out over the next two weeks. Neither Feely nor Carpenter is considered worth drafting as a fantasy kicker.
Do Wings, Beer and Fantasy Football Go Together?
Buffalo Wild Wings, Yahoo Suports to Celebrate National Draft Day
Wings, Beer and Fantasy Football go together like... well sports and sports bars. Or football and cheerleaders? Whatever the combination, Yahoo Sports and Buffalo Wild Wings certainly think it's a winning one. They are teaming up to mark National Draft Day, an event "celebrating the heart of the fantasy football picking season."
On Saturday, Aug. 24, Yahoo will have its experts on the ground at BWW franchises in Irving, Tex. and Oakdale, Min. to help assist fans with their drafts. Yahoo also will broadcast a live two-hour online show starting at Noon Eastern/10a Pacific, which will be avaialbe for your viewing pleasure at Buffalo Wild Wings restaurants nationwide. The show will review the latest news/notes from around the league while also revealing their top sleepers, busts and shocker specials at every position.
By the way, if you play in a Yahoo league, our fantasy Draft Analyzer has the Yahoo scoring system pre-loaded as an option when you create your roster, so you can get the most accurate picks for draft day. Login now or register to get started.
Meanwhile, please comment below with the answer to this question: Where do you prefer to host your fantasy draft?
- sports bar?
- your house?
- online?
- somewhere else?
Wherever you draft, be sure to take your cheat sheet with you, and best of luck!
Jon Baldwin, A.J. Jenkins; Any Fantasy Potential for Either?
Chiefs/49ers Swap of 1st Round Draft Busts May Provide New Hope
What do two teams do when they realize that they have wasted a first round pick in a prior draft on WR that has been a complete bust up to this point? They make a trade between themselves!
Today's trade of Jonathan Baldwin for A.J. Jenkins between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers is a reflection of both teams not wanting to just release a guy they recently selected with a first round pick. The Chiefs made Baldwin a late first round selection in 2011 while the 49ers did the same with Jenkins in 2012.
In two seasons with the Chiefs, Baldwin caught a combined 41 passes for 579 yards and 2 TD's. He was drafted to be a strong supporting WR opposite Dwayne Bowe and because of his size (6'4", 230 lbs) be able to win contested throws and be a prime target in the red zone. But injuries, along with reports of a lack of work ethic and poor attitude, dogged him both seasons. When Andy Reid became the new head coach in Kansas City, I had my questions about whether a WR like Baldwin would be a good fit for his west coast style of offense where it's predicated more on shorter routes and the WR making plays after the catch. After all, Baldwin is not a burner, and despite his size doesn't show a willingness to go get the football over the middle.
The 49ers selection of Jenkins in round 1 in the 2012 NFL Draft just proved to be a waste. Jenkins wasn't known to be a physical WR who could beat press coverage or the sharpest route runner. But in college he was considered to be good at finding the soft spots in zone coverage and elusive after the catch. Maybe they thought they needed a finesse WR opposite of physical Michael Crabtree? Whatever they thought at the time, it couldn't have turned out any worse than it did. Jenkins didn't make a single regular or post season reception at all as a rookie. He was routinely inactive on game days and showed very inconsistent hands in practices.
So will a change of scenery do either of these WR's any good?
It could for Baldwin. Baldwin's practice habits under Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers coaching staff will go a long ways in determining if he can revitalize his career in San Francisco. It could take a few weeks into the regular season, but I can see a scenario where under the tutelage of Harbaugh, and the veteran presence of another physical WR in Anquan Boldin, the light bulb comes on for him and he starts to assert himself. After all, it's not like the 49ers have any great options in front of him. Michael Crabtree is out at least until the last 4 weeks of the regular season with his Achilles tear; Mario Manningham is slated to start the season on the PUP list and miss the first 6 weeks of the season as he tries to recover from tears to both his ACL and PCL suffered last season; Kyle Williams is less than 11 months removed from his own torn ACL injury; rookie Quinton Patton just recently got clearance to take part in pass catching drills as he had a fractured finger and he was routinely described as disappointing back in OTA's; then there's a slew of players including Marlon Moore (castoff from Miami), Ricardo Lockette (castoff from Seattle), Lavelle Hawkins (castoff from New England and Tennessee), Kassim Osgood (castoff from several teams), and Austin Collie (talented, but an injury time bomb waiting to happen because of his history of multiple concussions). None of these other players have the physical skills or upside Baldwin has. The path to the starting lineup is there if Baldwin applies himself.
For Jenkins, he's a better fit for the Chiefs west coast scheme than Baldwin was, but he's got to show a willingness to go over the middle and an ability to actually catch the ball when it's thrown to him. His hands have been terrible and the location switch has him unlikely to be doing more than battling for the 4th or 5th WR spot in Kansas City with guys like Devon Wylie, Junior Hemingway, Terrence Cooper, and Jamar Newsome. I seriously doubt Jenkins is a legitimate threat to compete for either the Chiefs #2 or #3 WR jobs.
The biggest beneficiary of the trade really was Chiefs WR Donnie Avery. Avery was battling Baldwin for the starting job opposite Dwayne Bowe. The trade solidifies Avery's spot as the starter now while Dexter McCluster solidifies his role as the #3/slot WR. If Avery can stay healthy, he'll flirt with 40 receptions, 600 yards and a couple of TD's. Not enough to give him viable fantasy value, but better than he would get in a split with Baldwin. A split with Jenkins is possible, but Jenkins would need to really show dramatic improvement in all aspects of his game. I don't see it happening, even in a better scheme fit.
Patriots and Brady Clicking in Preseason
Fears of a fantasy letdown by "Tom Terrific" becoming a memory
If last night was any indication of what to expect from the New England Patriots then I have a few observations:
Tom Brady is going to have another monster season. In 2007 under offensive Josh McDaniels, Brady threw for 4,806 yards and an NFL record 50 passing TD's while having just 8 interceptions. In 2012 with McDaniels back as offensive coordinator after stints with Denver and St. Louis, Brady threw for 4,827 yards, 34 TD's, and 8 interceptions. After a near complete revamping of his WR corps, the loss of his top TE (Rob Gronkowski) to back and arm surgeries for an undetermined amount of time, and the release of talented yet extremely troubled Aaron Hernandez, many were speculating that this could be the end of the line for Brady's time as an elite fantasy football QB. He certainly looks anything but done through 2 preseason games. I stated before in this blog that the timing between a QB and his WR's was one of the primary reasons to watch preseason football games. In the case of Brady and the Patriots, it was one of the specific situations I was going to watch for this since Julian Edelman (not counting special teamer 6th WR Matt Slater) is the only holdover at WR from last year. How is Brady getting along without Wes Welker? Are all the comparisons to style of game with Danny Amendola warranted? Would the young WR's like Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Josh Boyce earn Brady's trust and make a legitimate push to being a starter, making veterans free agent acquisitions Michael Jenkins, Lavelle Hawkins, and Donald Jones expendable? Guess so as none of those veterans are still on the team. Brady looks like he wants to prove that he is the one who has made each of the WR's he's had to throw to over the years look great, not vice-versa. Another 4,800 yards and 35+ TD's are certainly attainable. Does anyone even remember the knee scare from just a few days ago? A distant memory after last night.
Zach Sudfeld is the best fantasy football sleeper TE for the start of the regular season. While I don't know if Gronkowski is going to avoid the PUP list to start the season and not miss the first 6 games, it seems likely he's going to miss at least 1 or 2 regular season games. Sudfeld has gone from undrafted rookie OTA standout, to training camp favorite, blowing by the veteran TE's the Patriots have on the roster. Sudfeld could be a real surprise early in the season as a fantasy TE1 and I think is worth riding the train for however long it lasts. Who knows? Maybe even when Gronkowski gets back, Sudfeld coexists with him as a viable fantasy option just like the Gronk/Hernandez combo was.
As long as he stays healthy, Danny Amendola is going to be a borderline #1 fantasy WR in non-ppr leagues and a strong fantasy WR1 in those that do award points per reception. Amendola has been everything advertised and the only thing that remains to be seen is whether he can avoid the injuries that have plagued him the last 2 seasons.
While undrafted rookie Kenbrell Thompkins appears to have the lead on second round pick Aaron Dobson as a starting WR opposite Amendola, I think the two rookies will have similar stats in 2013. Thompkins is winning out right now because of better route running, but Dobson is going to really excel on those deeper patterns because of superior speed. Because of his spot with the starting unit currently, Thompkins is the better WR to draft, but Dobson is also worthy of a late round flier as well for potential. As for Julian Edelman, he's unlikely to really step in and have much of an impactful fantasy role.
Stevan Ridley is going to be a fantasy RB1 in 2013. Shane Vereen is going to challenge to be an every week fantasy RB2 in non-ppr formats and a very good RB2 in those leagues with ppr. Ridley is a lock for 16+ carries every week and will handle the majority of goal line work. Vereen is likely going to have only 5-8 carries each week, but likely to catch at least 3 passes on a regular basis. Vereen just makes plays with the ball in his hands, so getting it to him 8-10 times every game stands to be a reasonable expectation from the Patriots.
We're only through 2 preseason games with the Patriots, but so far, everything I've seen has reaffirmed my faith in their viability to put several high quality fantasy options out there for us in 2013.
7 More Sleeper-Bust-Injury Alerts Sent Out
These Players Over/Undervalued Based on ADP
Do you know who's being overvalued in your fantasy draft? Our Championship Package members do! Earlier on Thursday morning they received another "Sleepers/Busts" Starter Alert listing 7 players we've found to be undervalued or overvalued based on their average draft position. Here's one of them:
"WR Bust Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams ADP info: 28th WR selected; 75th player selected; Round 7 pick 3 The Rams drafted Austin to be a playmaker for them, but he's very likely to end up being the Rams #3 WR instead of an actual starter. Expectations for smaller explosive WR's like Austin are always higher than they should realistically be. We don't deny that Austin is likely to have a few very good games, but consistency will elude him as the Rams #3 WR. Austin's ADP is over 30 spots higher than teammate Chris Givens, who is locked in as a starter and an explosive WR in his own right that is also developing into a more reliable shorter and intermediate target. When you're the 28th WR selected, you are expected to be a high end fantasy WR3. We just don't see it being likely for the rookie. With Austin regularly being selected over guys like Steve Johnson, Cecil Shorts, and Anquan Boldin we think he's being overvalued, and by quite a bit."
Alerts also go out for injuries, like Tom Brady's big injury scare. We were just about to send injury updates on several key players who have been bitten by the injury bug recently when we got the initial reports about Brady having suffered an undisclosed knee injury in practice. So we included that on the Alert:
"Tom Brady reportedly has suffered a knee injury in practice today. Initial reports say that Brady was able to leave the field on his own without assistance. It sounds like the Patriots are being very cautious with him and will check him out to make sure it isn't anything serious. If it develops into something serious, you can expect another alert later today. But likely he just twisted it and will be fine."
We sent a follow up Alert 3 hours later when the results of the MRI came back negative and the diagnosis of a minor sprain that wasn't serious and that he is still a quality fantasy QB1.
Keeping up on draft trends and injuries can be time consuming to do on your own so why not let us do it for you? If you're a Championship Package member and haven't signed up yet for them, log in and sign up for our Starter Alerts to get this advantage you've been missing out on.
Not a Championship Package member? UPGRADE today!
Fantasy Experts Draft Review
Why I took each player, each round of the Publisher's Challenge League
Monday I posted the round by round results of the Publisher's Challenge League I took part in this past Saturday. The league is sponsored by Fantasy Football Impact and there are 10 sites with a representative expert that were included.
The league is set up like a basic free Yahoo league with their basic non-ppr scoring. 15 round draft, start 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR's, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D/ST; 6 from any position on the bench. Here are each team and the final rosters they put together. I should note that despite having plenty of advanced warning, four of the experts either weren't there or deliberately chose to use the autodraft function throughout the entire draft. That would explain the amount of defenses and kickers taken in those exact spots in rounds 8 and 9. Autodraft functions are usually constrained to fill out starting requirements at every position before selecting depth. Fantasy Football Impact was aware of this and thusly made a strategically deliberate move by selecting the Chicago Bears defense early in round 7 as he coveted them and understood the autodraft function for teams picking twice before his next selection at the end of round 8 would have taken the Bears defense off the board before then. While I think that is too early for any defense in this type of league, at least he used his knowledge of who was on autodraft and how Yahoo's autodraft function would operate before his next pick. He used his knowledge of that to basically cross figure out 8 of the next 16 picks before it would be his turn again. That's a good application of what I talk about when I have stated smart drafters mentally go through each team and calculate how many players at every position are going to be selected by their next pick so they can see what the scenarios are on the tier rankings.
Here's the team I drafted from the 8th spot:
Fantasy Football Starters - Russ Bliss
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
8
|
CLE
|
RB
|
Richardson, Trent
|
|
2
|
13
|
ATL
|
RB
|
Jackson, Steven
|
|
3
|
28
|
GB
|
WR
|
Cobb, Randall
|
|
4
|
33
|
TB
|
WR
|
Jackson, Vincent
|
|
5
|
48
|
NYG
|
WR
|
Nicks, Hakeem
|
|
6
|
53
|
GB
|
RB
|
Lacy, Eddie
|
|
7
|
68
|
NYJ
|
RB
|
Ivory, Chris
|
|
8
|
73
|
TEN
|
WR
|
Britt, Kenny
|
|
9
|
88
|
DAL
|
QB
|
Romo, Tony
|
|
10
|
93
|
STL
|
TE
|
Cook, Jared
|
|
11
|
108
|
CIN
|
RB
|
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus
|
|
12
|
113
|
ARZ
|
WR
|
Floyd, Michael
|
|
13
|
128
|
TB
|
QB
|
Freeman, Josh
|
|
14
|
133
|
GB
|
DEF
|
Packers
|
|
15
|
148
|
STL
|
K
|
Zuerlein, Greg
|
I didn't expect Trent Richardson to be there at #8 and while some are still scared of the shin injury that has lingered for the past couple of months, I believe he is certainly no worse off than last year when he had a knee scope the second week of August. Cleveland has just been very smart in how they deal with him as he is fully expected to be another in a long line of bellcow RB's offensive coordinator Norv Turner has had success with in the NFL. Richardson caught 51 passes last season, something else RB's in Turner's system frequently have to do. And only 3 RB's scored more than his 12 total TD's. I saw plenty of toughness from him missing only game despite the knee, plus a couple of broken ribs suffered later in the season. T-Rich is a solid fantasy RB1.
In round 2 I would have taken WR Dez Bryant if he had been there but Fantasy Sharks grabbed him right before my pick. That's okay. I'm higher on Steven Jackson's prospects in Atlanta than many. I think S-Jax stands a very good chance of having 1,400 combined yards and score 10+ TD's. I'll bank that from my RB2.
I went WR with my next 3 picks. I would have thought about taking Drew Brees but no surprise that he went early in round 3. I was however surprised and happy to see both Randall Cobb and Vincent Jackson available. I knew from studying the ADP's that I could probably pass on Jackson in round 3 and still get him round 4, but that Cobb was a definite risk to be gone before then so Cobb was the pick. I know Jackson's inconsistency can drive owners mad (5 games with 5 fantasy points scored or fewer in 2012; 6 with 15 fantasy points or more in this scoring format), but you take the bust with the boom. I gambled he'd be there in round 4 and he was. I wasn't going to take the chance he'd be there in round 5. I did contemplate Peyton Manning in round 4, but I was sticking to my belief that QB's are as deep this year as they have ever been and that I would get a proven 4,000+ yards, 30 TD guy in a later round. The WR I took in round 5 comes with a ton of potential to be a fantasy WR1, but also substantial risk. Hakeem Nicks can be a dominant WR when he's healthy, but therein lays the risk: he is almost never healthy for long. But I figured he's highly motivated with 2013 being a contract year and he knows that to get a big payday, he'll need to play through some of the injuries that might otherwise make a player sit. A potential top 20 WR was worth the risk as my 3rd starting WR.
I wanted to get a quality RB3 in round 6 and saw both Eddie Lacy and Chris Ivory staring at me from my cheat sheets. Both come with their question marks, but I thought Lacy was the best RB coming out of college in April's NFL draft and he couldn't have gone to a better spot than Green Bay. For the past few years the Packers have been an elite passing offense that has struggled to close out games against opponents because they lacked a RB powerful enough to do it with. I like Ivory's potential, but the Jets are a harder offense to trust having a lead and Ivory has caught a total of THREE receptions in 3 seasons. He isn't likely to be much of a receiving factor if the Jets are trailing in games. I gave some thought to getting a jump on the TE run I knew was coming soon, but my study of ADP told me one of my favorite sleepers to emerge as a strong fantasy TE1 was expected to be available for a few more rounds. Really, Lacy was the easy pick.
I was surprised that when round 7 came around to my pick that Ivory was still available. There had been a couple of other RB's that had come off the board since my last pick, but no one took Ivory. My intention had been to take Matt Stafford here as I think he will have a great season this year. But with both RG3 and Tony Romo still available and 7 teams having selected QB's I figured I may be able to get away with waiting one more round. I just couldn't deny myself a strong RB4. I rolled the dice and took Ivory.
Like Dez Bryant in round 2, the team picking right in front of me took Stafford in round 8. That left two teams who still needed a QB so I knew I could wait one more round. That meant it was time to target either a TE or WR. While there is always a certain level of anxiety leaving one of your favorite sleeper picks on the board, I trusted my ADP study that my TE would still be there in round 10. Meanwhile, another WR like Nicks with huge boom or bust potential was available. Kenny Britt has been an oft-injured knucklehead most of his career, but Britt has managed to stay out of trouble this offseason and regularly stood out in OTA's. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Britt's newfound work ethic and ability to stay out of trouble are probably tied to the fact this is the last year of his original rookie contract. He's motivated and has proven that when healthy in the past, he can be a dominant WR who puts up fantasy WR1/2 numbers. Given concerns about Nicks as my boom or bust WR3, I figured I'd swing for the fences again with Britt as my WR4.
Round 9 was the final round for the autodraft teams to fill out their starting rosters, so I knew I had to take a QB here. I had put it off long enough and took Romo since RG3 went earlier in the round. Few players get as little love from fantasy owners than Romo. But in 2012 he passed for over 4,900 yards and 28 TD's. His 19 interceptions tied a career high, but historically he doesn't throw that many picks. Just like in 2011, Romo was much stronger in the second half of the 2012 season throwing 15 of his 28 TD's in the last 6 games while eclipsing 400 passing yards twice in that span. It's no coincidence that Romo's numbers really took off at the same time Dez Bryant started to live up to his elite talent level. With Bryant expected to keep that level of elite play from start to finish in 2013, Romo is being seriously undervalued in 2013 fantasy football drafts.
When it came my turn in round 10 I also figured that I had tempted fate long enough when it came to my TE position. 7 TE's had been selected so far in the draft, and none since the end of round 7. With 3 teams still needing their starting TE's (me one of them) I didn't want to lose out on my sleeper at the position. So I took Jared Cook. There have been nothing but glowing reports about Cook since the Rams signed him in free agency. I can't believe they paid him all that money to foolishly underutilize his immense size and athleticism the way Tennessee had done the last few seasons. Cook has elite skills for the position and the Rams lack proven pass catchers at WR. Cook is a solid fantasy football sleeper to finish among the top 5 fantasy TE's in 2013.
That leaves the last 5 rounds to acquire more depth at RB, WR, and QB, along with grabbing my Kicker and Defense.
When Steve Johnson and Miles Austin got selected before my pick this round I went after the RB instead. While BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in a time share with rookie Giovani Bernard, there's a chance the rookie could make some mistakes that get him in the doghouse or wear down. BGE managed 1,094 yards and 6 TD's last season in a full time role and it's a decent bet he'll at least dominate goal line situations. BGE was the least "sexy" pick of my draft, and I know I've pegged him as a potential bust previously, but that is based on him being drafted as a fantasy RB3. On my squad he's my RB5. Definitely worth having at that type of value.
One of my favorite sleeper WR's in 2013 since Spring has been Vincent Brown. But he went right after my pick in round 11. So when it came to my turn in round 12 I opted for another favorite sleeper of mine at the WR position: Michael Floyd. Floyd is a guy being drafted as a fantasy WR4/5 who could very likely put up consistent WR3 numbers. The presence of Larry Fitzgerald will ensure Floyd isn't the focus of opponents and Bruce Arians offensive system is proven to be QB and WR friendly. Look at what T.Y. Hilton did last year in Indianapolis as the #2 WR there.
Even in a smaller 10 team league like this, I like having a high upside backup QB. I know some will only draft one at the position, trusting to a more robust free agent wire for an available bye week or injury replacement, but I like having a guy who could emerge as either a viable starting option, or become potential trade bait if injuries decimate the position. I considered Jay Cutler with this pick in the 13th round, but Josh Freeman has produced better fantasy stats each of the last 2 seasons and isn't learning a new offensive system. Freeman is a young QB entering the prime of his career. He has another year with a great WR in Vincent Jackson, to go along with steady Mike Williams and a rushing attack that features Doug Martin. The pieces are in place for this be Freeman's best season yet. It also doesn't hurt that this is Freeman's contract season. Freeman is one of my favorite targets this year for backup QB on my squads.
That left me needing a Defense and a Kicker. The last two rounds as it should be in my opinion in standard scoring systems.
Round 14 saw Fantasy Sharks snake me one final time by taking my targeted defense: New England. But I am happy with Green Bay as an alternative. They had a down year in 2012 as a fantasy scoring defense, but from 2006-2011, they were always in the top 10 (half the time in the top 5). I'll give them benefit of the doubt they can get back to where they were as now they stand a good chance of being able to put games away with Eddie Lacy's power running closing out leads instead of going 3 and out and letting opponents have more possessions.
That left the kicker position for round 15. I usually make sure my TE, Defense, and Kicker all have different bye weeks so I only need to drop one player from my roster to cover them, but with longer FG's getting a little extra in this league (4 pts for 40-49 yards; 5 pts for 50+), I wanted to make sure I got someone has proven to be able to make these long FGA's. Greg Zuerlein proved last season to have that leg capable of making the 50 yarders (7 in that yardage range) and didn't miss on any of 7 more tries from 40-49 yards. Since the Rams don't have a bye until week 11, I figured I could survive until then. By that far into the season, it's inevitable the team you drafted and the team you actually have are considerably different.
Here are each of the other teams drafted rosters (in order of their draft slot; I picked 8th overall):
Fantasy Football Blog - Thomas Harkins
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
1
|
MIN
|
RB
|
Peterson, Adrian
|
|
2
|
20
|
GB
|
QB
|
Rodgers, Aaron
|
|
3
|
21
|
ATL
|
WR
|
Jones, Julio
|
|
4
|
40
|
DET
|
RB
|
Bush, Reggie
|
|
5
|
41
|
NE
|
WR
|
Amendola, Danny
|
|
6
|
60
|
CAR
|
WR
|
Smith, Steve
|
|
7
|
61
|
NE
|
TE
|
Gronkowski, Rob
|
|
8
|
80
|
DEN
|
DEF
|
Broncos
|
|
9
|
81
|
ATL
|
K
|
Bryant, Matt
|
|
10
|
100
|
SEA
|
WR
|
Tate, Golden
|
|
11
|
101
|
DEN
|
RB
|
Hillman, Ronnie
|
|
12
|
120
|
PIT
|
QB
|
Roethlisberger, Ben
|
|
13
|
121
|
SEA
|
WR
|
Rice, Sidney
|
|
14
|
140
|
SD
|
TE
|
Gates, Antonio
|
|
15
|
141
|
ARZ
|
DEF
|
Cardinals
|
Fantasy Football Impact - George Barber
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
2
|
TB
|
RB
|
Martin, Doug
|
|
2
|
19
|
NE
|
RB
|
Ridley, Stevan
|
|
3
|
22
|
ARZ
|
WR
|
Fitzgerald, Larry
|
|
4
|
39
|
BAL
|
WR
|
Smith, Torrey
|
|
5
|
42
|
NE
|
QB
|
Brady, Tom
|
|
6
|
59
|
DAL
|
TE
|
Witten, Jason
|
|
7
|
62
|
CHI
|
DEF
|
Bears
|
|
8
|
79
|
CIN
|
RB
|
Bernard, Giovani
|
|
9
|
82
|
IND
|
WR
|
Hilton, T.Y.
|
|
10
|
98
|
NO
|
RB
|
Ingram, Mark
|
|
11
|
102
|
SF
|
WR
|
Boldin, Anquan
|
|
12
|
119
|
STL
|
WR
|
Givens, Chris
|
|
13
|
122
|
HOU
|
WR
|
Hopkins, DeAndre
|
|
14
|
139
|
NE
|
WR
|
Thompkins, Kenbrell
|
|
15
|
142
|
WAS
|
K
|
Forbath, Kai
|
Razzball - Sky Seymour
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
3
|
HOU
|
RB
|
Foster, Arian
|
|
2
|
18
|
JAX
|
RB
|
Jones-Drew, Maurice
|
|
3
|
23
|
NO
|
QB
|
Brees, Drew
|
|
4
|
38
|
WAS
|
WR
|
Garcon, Pierre
|
|
5
|
43
|
IND
|
WR
|
Wayne, Reggie
|
|
6
|
58
|
MIA
|
WR
|
Wallace, Mike
|
|
7
|
63
|
CAR
|
TE
|
Olsen, Greg
|
|
8
|
78
|
HOU
|
DEF
|
Texans
|
|
9
|
83
|
SF
|
K
|
Dawson, Phil
|
|
10
|
98
|
NYG
|
RB
|
Brown, Andre
|
|
11
|
103
|
NYG
|
QB
|
Manning, Eli
|
|
12
|
118
|
GB
|
TE
|
Finley, Jermichael
|
|
13
|
123
|
OAK
|
WR
|
Moore, Denarius
|
|
14
|
138
|
JAX
|
WR
|
Blackmon, Justin
|
|
15
|
143
|
BAL
|
DEF
|
Ravens
|
Eat Drink and Sleeper Football - Kevin Hanson
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
4
|
BUF
|
RB
|
Spiller, C.J.
|
|
2
|
17
|
CHI
|
WR
|
Marshall, Brandon
|
|
3
|
24
|
TEN
|
RB
|
Johnson, Chris
|
|
4
|
37
|
NO
|
WR
|
Colston, Marques
|
|
5
|
44
|
OAK
|
RB
|
McFadden, Darren
|
|
6
|
57
|
NO
|
RB
|
Sproles, Darren
|
|
7
|
64
|
NE
|
RB
|
Vereen, Shane
|
|
8
|
77
|
JAX
|
WR
|
Shorts, Cecil
|
|
9
|
84
|
WAS
|
QB
|
Griffin III, Robert
|
|
10
|
97
|
CLE
|
WR
|
Gordon, Josh
|
|
11
|
104
|
BUF
|
WR
|
Johnson, Stevie
|
|
12
|
117
|
CHI
|
TE
|
Bennett, Martellus
|
|
13
|
124
|
CHI
|
WR
|
Jeffery, Alshon
|
|
14
|
137
|
STL
|
DEF
|
Rams
|
|
15
|
144
|
BAL
|
K
|
Tucker, Justin
|
Rotoexperts - Thomas McFeeley
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
5
|
KC
|
RB
|
Charles, Jamaal
|
|
2
|
16
|
NO
|
TE
|
Graham, Jimmy
|
|
3
|
25
|
DEN
|
WR
|
Thomas, Demaryius
|
|
4
|
36
|
SF
|
RB
|
Gore, Frank
|
|
5
|
45
|
SF
|
QB
|
Kaepernick, Colin
|
|
6
|
56
|
GB
|
WR
|
Nelson, Jordy
|
|
7
|
65
|
GB
|
WR
|
Jones, James
|
|
8
|
76
|
SF
|
DEF
|
49ers
|
|
9
|
85
|
NE
|
K
|
Gostkowski, Stephen
|
|
10
|
96
|
IND
|
QB
|
Luck, Andrew
|
|
11
|
105
|
DAL
|
WR
|
Austin, Miles
|
|
12
|
116
|
HOU
|
RB
|
Tate, Ben
|
|
13
|
125
|
WAS
|
TE
|
Davis, Fred
|
|
14
|
136
|
IND
|
WR
|
Heyward-Bey, Darrius
|
|
15
|
145
|
PIT
|
DEF
|
Steelers
|
Gridiron Experts - Mike Rodriguez
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
6
|
SEA
|
RB
|
Lynch, Marshawn
|
|
2
|
15
|
CHI
|
RB
|
Forte, Matt
|
|
3
|
26
|
NYG
|
WR
|
Cruz, Victor
|
|
4
|
35
|
HOU
|
WR
|
Johnson, Andre
|
|
5
|
46
|
ATL
|
QB
|
Ryan, Matt
|
|
6
|
55
|
SF
|
TE
|
Davis, Vernon
|
|
7
|
66
|
DEN
|
WR
|
Welker, Wes
|
|
8
|
75
|
ARZ
|
RB
|
Mendenhall, Rashard
|
|
9
|
86
|
TB
|
WR
|
Williams, Mike
|
|
10
|
95
|
BAL
|
RB
|
Pierce, Bernard
|
|
11
|
106
|
PIT
|
WR
|
Sanders, Emmanuel
|
|
12
|
115
|
DEN
|
K
|
Prater, Matt
|
|
13
|
126
|
TB
|
DEF
|
Buccaneers
|
|
14
|
135
|
CIN
|
QB
|
Dalton, Andy
|
|
15
|
146
|
ARZ
|
TE
|
Housler, Rob
|
Fantasy Insights - Dish Adams
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
7
|
DET
|
WR
|
Johnson, Calvin
|
|
2
|
14
|
CIN
|
WR
|
Green, A.J.
|
|
3
|
27
|
ATL
|
WR
|
White, Roddy
|
|
4
|
34
|
DEN
|
QB
|
Manning, Peyton
|
|
5
|
47
|
DAL
|
RB
|
Murray, DeMarco
|
|
6
|
54
|
ATL
|
TE
|
Gonzalez, Tony
|
|
7
|
67
|
SD
|
RB
|
Mathews, Ryan
|
|
8
|
74
|
IND
|
RB
|
Bradshaw, Ahmad
|
|
9
|
87
|
CAR
|
RB
|
Williams, DeAngelo
|
|
10
|
94
|
STL
|
RB
|
Richardson, Daryl
|
|
11
|
107
|
PHI
|
QB
|
Vick, Michael
|
|
12
|
114
|
CIN
|
DEF
|
Bengals
|
|
13
|
127
|
NYG
|
WR
|
Randle, Rueben
|
|
14
|
134
|
NE
|
WR
|
Dobson, Aaron
|
|
15
|
147
|
NYG
|
K
|
Brown, Josh
|
Fantasy Sharks - Jim Bukowski
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
9
|
PHI
|
RB
|
McCoy, LeSean
|
|
2
|
12
|
DAL
|
WR
|
Bryant, Dez
|
|
3
|
29
|
MIA
|
RB
|
Miller, Lamar
|
|
4
|
32
|
PIT
|
RB
|
Bell, Le'Veon
|
|
5
|
49
|
NYG
|
RB
|
Wilson, David
|
|
6
|
52
|
DEN
|
RB
|
Ball, Montee
|
|
7
|
69
|
PHI
|
WR
|
Jackson, DeSean
|
|
8
|
72
|
DET
|
QB
|
Stafford, Matthew
|
|
9
|
89
|
STL
|
WR
|
Austin, Tavon
|
|
10
|
92
|
MIN
|
WR
|
Jennings, Greg
|
|
11
|
109
|
SD
|
WR
|
Brown, Vincent
|
|
12
|
112
|
DET
|
WR
|
Broyles, Ryan
|
|
13
|
129
|
NYG
|
TE
|
Myers, Brandon
|
|
14
|
132
|
NE
|
DEF
|
Patriots
|
|
15
|
149
|
OAK
|
K
|
Janikowski, Sebastian
|
Gridiron Guru - Matt DiAntonio
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
10
|
BAL
|
RB
|
Rice, Ray
|
|
2
|
11
|
WAS
|
RB
|
Morris, Alfred
|
|
3
|
30
|
CAR
|
QB
|
Newton, Cam
|
|
4
|
31
|
KC
|
WR
|
Bowe, Dwayne
|
|
5
|
50
|
PIT
|
WR
|
Brown, Antonio
|
|
6
|
51
|
DEN
|
WR
|
Decker, Eric
|
|
7
|
70
|
MIN
|
TE
|
Rudolph, Kyle
|
|
8
|
71
|
SEA
|
DEF
|
Seahawks
|
|
9
|
90
|
MIN
|
K
|
Walsh, Blair
|
|
10
|
91
|
SEA
|
QB
|
Wilson, Russell
|
|
11
|
110
|
HOU
|
TE
|
Daniels, Owen
|
|
12
|
111
|
NO
|
WR
|
Moore, Lance
|
|
13
|
130
|
PHI
|
RB
|
Brown, Bryce
|
|
14
|
131
|
SD
|
WR
|
Floyd, Malcom
|
|
15
|
150
|
NYG
|
DEF
|
Giants
|
Like Us on Facebook, Get a 2013 Draft Trends & ADP Download
FREE Guide Explains How Average Draft Position Gives You an Edge
For a limited time, if you Like our page on Facebook, you'll get a free guide on fantasy draft trends for 2013.
In tracking scores of fantasy drafts for 10-team, 12-team, and 14-team league sizes with standard scoring systems and starting requirements, there are definite trends regarding what round certain positions are being selected most often, on average. Knowing this helps you find the value pick of a player at a position that may have slipped through the cracks!
Our guide gives you the breakdown for 2013 by League Size, Round, and Position. Plus, we give you insider tips and tricks, such as:
"There will be some owners who will draft backups at the K position. But on average, the experienced fantasy owner doesn’t draft backups at the K position, (and shouldn’t draft a backup Defense either; but there are almost always a couple of owners who do) preferring to load up with depth at the RB and WR positions where there are fewer quality options available via free agency and waivers."
The guide also explains how to take advantage of adverage draft position (ADP) intelligence to make better draft picks. What's ADP, you ask? The guide explains:
"Many league management sites offer the ability to see where, on average, every player is being selected in both mock drafts and actual drafts completed on their sites. Some even allow you to sort by league size and scoring system. Typically, they also show you what was the highest and the lowest draft slot for each player as well. It’s called Average Draft Position (ADP) and it is an excellent tool allowing you to see where the players ranked on your cheat sheets are being selected and therefore in which round you can estimate they’ll be drafted. The advantage of this is knowing when a player who is ranked higher on your cheat sheets may be selected in a later round than where you have him ranked."
The guide is full of insight and plain-English explanations like those above. Best of all, it's totally FREE. Just visit us on Facebook, click the "Like" button and download the guide. But do it now, this offer is only for a limited time.
Publisher's League Draft Results
Latest expert's draft round by round results helps give current fantasy draft trends
August is Fantasy Football Draft month to be sure. This past Saturday I took part in the Publisher's Challenge League sponsored by Fantasy Football Impact. There are 10 sites with a representative expert that were included. Here they are (in order of draft position):
Fantasy Football Blog - Thomas Harkins
Fantasy Football Impact - George Barber
Razzball - Sky Seymour
Eat Drink and Sleeper Football - Kevin Hanson
Rotoexperts - Thomas McFeeley
Gridiron Experts - Mike Rodriguez
Fantasy Insights - Dish Adams
Fantasy Football Starters - Russ Bliss
Fantasy Sharks - Jim Bukowski
Gridiron Guru - Matt DiAntonio
The league is set up like a basic free Yahoo league with their basic non-ppr scoring. 15 round draft, start 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR's, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D/ST; 6 from any position on the bench. Knowing what the results were may be of use to you as you look at what draft trends are currently.
Here is what happened round by round:
|
Round
|
Pick#
|
Site
|
Team
|
Pos
|
Player
|
|
1
|
1
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
MIN
|
RB
|
Peterson, Adrian
|
|
1
|
2
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
TB
|
RB
|
Martin, Doug
|
|
1
|
3
|
Razzball
|
HOU
|
RB
|
Foster, Arian
|
|
1
|
4
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
BUF
|
RB
|
Spiller, C.J.
|
|
1
|
5
|
RotoExperts
|
KC
|
RB
|
Charles, Jamaal
|
|
1
|
6
|
Gridiron Experts
|
SEA
|
RB
|
Lynch, Marshawn
|
|
1
|
7
|
Fantasy Insights
|
DET
|
WR
|
Johnson, Calvin
|
|
1
|
8
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
CLE
|
RB
|
Richardson, Trent
|
|
1
|
9
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
PHI
|
RB
|
McCoy, LeSean
|
|
1
|
10
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
BAL
|
RB
|
Rice, Ray
|
|
2
|
11
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
WAS
|
RB
|
Morris, Alfred
|
|
2
|
12
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
DAL
|
WR
|
Bryant, Dez
|
|
2
|
13
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
ATL
|
RB
|
Jackson, Steven
|
|
2
|
14
|
Fantasy Insights
|
CIN
|
WR
|
Green, A.J.
|
|
2
|
15
|
Gridiron Experts
|
CHI
|
RB
|
Forte, Matt
|
|
2
|
16
|
RotoExperts
|
NO
|
TE
|
Graham, Jimmy
|
|
2
|
17
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
CHI
|
WR
|
Marshall, Brandon
|
|
2
|
18
|
Razzball
|
JAX
|
RB
|
Jones-Drew, Maurice
|
|
2
|
19
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
NE
|
RB
|
Ridley, Stevan
|
|
2
|
20
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
GB
|
QB
|
Rodgers, Aaron
|
|
3
|
21
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
ATL
|
WR
|
Jones, Julio
|
|
3
|
22
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
ARZ
|
WR
|
Fitzgerald, Larry
|
|
3
|
23
|
Razzball
|
NO
|
QB
|
Brees, Drew
|
|
3
|
24
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
TEN
|
RB
|
Johnson, Chris
|
|
3
|
25
|
RotoExperts
|
DEN
|
WR
|
Thomas, Demaryius
|
|
3
|
26
|
Gridiron Experts
|
NYG
|
WR
|
Cruz, Victor
|
|
3
|
27
|
Fantasy Insights
|
ATL
|
WR
|
White, Roddy
|
|
3
|
28
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
GB
|
WR
|
Cobb, Randall
|
|
3
|
29
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
MIA
|
RB
|
Miller, Lamar
|
|
3
|
30
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
CAR
|
QB
|
Newton, Cam
|
|
4
|
31
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
KC
|
WR
|
Bowe, Dwayne
|
|
4
|
32
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
PIT
|
RB
|
Bell, Le'Veon
|
|
4
|
33
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
TB
|
WR
|
Jackson, Vincent
|
|
4
|
34
|
Fantasy Insights
|
DEN
|
QB
|
Manning, Peyton
|
|
4
|
35
|
Gridiron Experts
|
HOU
|
WR
|
Johnson, Andre
|
|
4
|
36
|
RotoExperts
|
SF
|
RB
|
Gore, Frank
|
|
4
|
37
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
NO
|
WR
|
Colston, Marques
|
|
4
|
38
|
Razzball
|
WAS
|
WR
|
Garcon, Pierre
|
|
4
|
39
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
BAL
|
WR
|
Smith, Torrey
|
|
4
|
40
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
DET
|
RB
|
Bush, Reggie
|
|
5
|
41
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
NE
|
WR
|
Amendola, Danny
|
|
5
|
42
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
NE
|
QB
|
Brady, Tom
|
|
5
|
43
|
Razzball
|
IND
|
WR
|
Wayne, Reggie
|
|
5
|
44
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
OAK
|
RB
|
McFadden, Darren
|
|
5
|
45
|
RotoExperts
|
SF
|
QB
|
Kaepernick, Colin
|
|
5
|
46
|
Gridiron Experts
|
ATL
|
QB
|
Ryan, Matt
|
|
5
|
47
|
Fantasy Insights
|
DAL
|
RB
|
Murray, DeMarco
|
|
5
|
48
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
NYG
|
WR
|
Nicks, Hakeem
|
|
5
|
49
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
NYG
|
RB
|
Wilson, David
|
|
5
|
50
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
PIT
|
WR
|
Brown, Antonio
|
|
6
|
51
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
DEN
|
WR
|
Decker, Eric
|
|
6
|
52
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
DEN
|
RB
|
Ball, Montee
|
|
6
|
53
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
GB
|
RB
|
Lacy, Eddie
|
|
6
|
54
|
Fantasy Insights
|
ATL
|
TE
|
Gonzalez, Tony
|
|
6
|
55
|
Gridiron Experts
|
SF
|
TE
|
Davis, Vernon
|
|
6
|
56
|
RotoExperts
|
GB
|
WR
|
Nelson, Jordy
|
|
6
|
57
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
NO
|
RB
|
Sproles, Darren
|
|
6
|
58
|
Razzball
|
MIA
|
WR
|
Wallace, Mike
|
|
6
|
59
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
DAL
|
TE
|
Witten, Jason
|
|
6
|
60
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
CAR
|
WR
|
Smith, Steve
|
|
7
|
61
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
NE
|
TE
|
Gronkowski, Rob
|
|
7
|
62
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
CHI
|
DEF
|
Bears
|
|
7
|
63
|
Razzball
|
CAR
|
TE
|
Olsen, Greg
|
|
7
|
64
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
NE
|
RB
|
Vereen, Shane
|
|
7
|
65
|
RotoExperts
|
GB
|
WR
|
Jones, James
|
|
7
|
66
|
Gridiron Experts
|
DEN
|
WR
|
Welker, Wes
|
|
7
|
67
|
Fantasy Insights
|
SD
|
RB
|
Mathews, Ryan
|
|
7
|
68
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
NYJ
|
RB
|
Ivory, Chris
|
|
7
|
69
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
PHI
|
WR
|
Jackson, DeSean
|
|
7
|
70
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
MIN
|
TE
|
Rudolph, Kyle
|
|
8
|
71
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
SEA
|
DEF
|
Seahawks
|
|
8
|
72
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
DET
|
QB
|
Stafford, Matthew
|
|
8
|
73
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
TEN
|
WR
|
Britt, Kenny
|
|
8
|
74
|
Fantasy Insights
|
IND
|
RB
|
Bradshaw, Ahmad
|
|
8
|
75
|
Gridiron Experts
|
ARZ
|
RB
|
Mendenhall, Rashard
|
|
8
|
76
|
RotoExperts
|
SF
|
DEF
|
49ers
|
|
8
|
77
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
JAX
|
WR
|
Shorts, Cecil
|
|
8
|
78
|
Razzball
|
HOU
|
DEF
|
Texans
|
|
8
|
79
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
CIN
|
RB
|
Bernard, Giovani
|
|
8
|
80
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
DEN
|
DEF
|
Broncos
|
|
9
|
81
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
ATL
|
K
|
Bryant, Matt
|
|
9
|
82
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
IND
|
WR
|
HIlton, T.Y.
|
|
9
|
83
|
Razzball
|
SF
|
K
|
Dawson, Phil
|
|
9
|
84
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
WAS
|
QB
|
Griffin III, Robert
|
|
9
|
85
|
RotoExperts
|
NE
|
K
|
Gostkowski, Stephen
|
|
9
|
86
|
Gridiron Experts
|
TB
|
WR
|
Williams, Mike
|
|
9
|
87
|
Fantasy Insights
|
CAR
|
RB
|
Williams, DeAngelo
|
|
9
|
88
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
DAL
|
QB
|
Romo, Tony
|
|
9
|
89
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
STL
|
WR
|
Austin, Tavon
|
|
9
|
90
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
MIN
|
K
|
Walsh, Blair
|
|
10
|
91
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
SEA
|
QB
|
Wilson, Russell
|
|
10
|
92
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
MIN
|
WR
|
Jennings, Greg
|
|
10
|
93
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
STL
|
TE
|
Cook, Jared
|
|
10
|
94
|
Fantasy Insights
|
STL
|
RB
|
Richardson, Daryl
|
|
10
|
95
|
Gridiron Experts
|
BAL
|
RB
|
Pierce, Bernard
|
|
10
|
96
|
RotoExperts
|
IND
|
QB
|
Luck, Andrew
|
|
10
|
97
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
CLE
|
WR
|
Gordon, Josh
|
|
10
|
98
|
Razzball
|
NYG
|
RB
|
Brown, Andre
|
|
10
|
98
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
NO
|
RB
|
Ingram, Mark
|
|
10
|
100
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
SEA
|
WR
|
Tate, Golden
|
|
11
|
101
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
DEN
|
RB
|
HIllman, Ronnie
|
|
11
|
102
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
SF
|
WR
|
Boldin, Anquan
|
|
11
|
103
|
Razzball
|
NYG
|
QB
|
Manning, Eli
|
|
11
|
104
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
BUF
|
WR
|
Johnson, Stevie
|
|
11
|
105
|
RotoExperts
|
DAL
|
WR
|
Austin, Miles
|
|
11
|
106
|
Gridiron Experts
|
PIT
|
WR
|
Sanders, Emmanuel
|
|
11
|
107
|
Fantasy Insights
|
PHI
|
QB
|
Vick, Michael
|
|
11
|
108
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
CIN
|
RB
|
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus
|
|
11
|
109
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
SD
|
WR
|
Brown, Vincent
|
|
11
|
110
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
HOU
|
TE
|
Daniels, Owen
|
|
12
|
111
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
NO
|
WR
|
Moore, Lance
|
|
12
|
112
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
DET
|
WR
|
Broyles, Ryan
|
|
12
|
113
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
ARZ
|
WR
|
Floyd, Michael
|
|
12
|
114
|
Fantasy Insights
|
CIN
|
DEF
|
Bengals
|
|
12
|
115
|
Gridiron Experts
|
DEN
|
K
|
Prater, Matt
|
|
12
|
116
|
RotoExperts
|
HOU
|
RB
|
Tate, Ben
|
|
12
|
117
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
CHI
|
TE
|
Bennett, Martellus
|
|
12
|
118
|
Razzball
|
GB
|
TE
|
Finley, Jermichael
|
|
12
|
119
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
STL
|
WR
|
Givens, Chris
|
|
12
|
120
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
PIT
|
QB
|
Roethlisberger, Ben
|
|
13
|
121
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
SEA
|
WR
|
Rice, Sidney
|
|
13
|
122
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
HOU
|
WR
|
Hopkins, DeAndre
|
|
13
|
123
|
Razzball
|
OAK
|
WR
|
Moore, Denarius
|
|
13
|
124
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
CHI
|
WR
|
Jeffery, Alshon
|
|
13
|
125
|
RotoExperts
|
WAS
|
TE
|
Davis, Fred
|
|
13
|
126
|
Gridiron Experts
|
TB
|
DEF
|
Buccaneers
|
|
13
|
127
|
Fantasy Insights
|
NYG
|
WR
|
Randle, Rueben
|
|
13
|
128
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
TB
|
QB
|
Freeman, Josh
|
|
13
|
129
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
NYG
|
TE
|
Myers, Brandon
|
|
13
|
130
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
PHI
|
RB
|
Brown, Bryce
|
|
14
|
131
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
SD
|
WR
|
Floyd, Malcom
|
|
14
|
132
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
NE
|
DEF
|
Patriots
|
|
14
|
133
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
GB
|
DEF
|
Packers
|
|
14
|
134
|
Fantasy Insights
|
NE
|
WR
|
Dobson, Aaron
|
|
14
|
135
|
Gridiron Experts
|
CIN
|
QB
|
Dalton, Andy
|
|
14
|
136
|
RotoExperts
|
IND
|
WR
|
Heyward-Bey, Darrius
|
|
14
|
137
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
STL
|
DEF
|
Rams
|
|
14
|
138
|
Razzball
|
JAX
|
WR
|
Blackmon, Justin
|
|
14
|
139
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
NE
|
WR
|
Thompkins, Kenbrell
|
|
14
|
140
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
SD
|
TE
|
Gates, Antonio
|
|
15
|
141
|
Fantasy Football Blog
|
ARZ
|
DEF
|
Cardinals
|
|
15
|
142
|
Fantasy Football Impact
|
WAS
|
K
|
Forbath, Kai
|
|
15
|
143
|
Razzball
|
BAL
|
DEF
|
Ravens
|
|
15
|
144
|
Eat, Drink and Sleep Football
|
BAL
|
K
|
Tucker, Justin
|
|
15
|
145
|
RotoExperts
|
PIT
|
DEF
|
Steelers
|
|
15
|
146
|
Gridiron Experts
|
ARZ
|
TE
|
Housler, Rob
|
|
15
|
147
|
Fantasy Insights
|
NYG
|
K
|
Brown, Josh
|
|
15
|
148
|
Fantasy Football Starters
|
STL
|
K
|
Zuerlein, Greg
|
|
15
|
149
|
Fantasy Sharks
|
OAK
|
K
|
Janikowski, Sebastian
|
|
15
|
150
|
Gridiron-Guru
|
NYG
|
DEF
|
Giants
|
Specific Things To Look For in 2013 NFL Preseason
Fantasy owners would prefer these things get figured sooner rather than later
Well, it's here. The first week of preseason games in the NFL. And with it (hopefully) comes the answer to many questions about certain situations for those of us who indulge in our favorite hobby: fantasy football. Now it's unlikely we're going to get definitive answers this early in the preseason, but there are some things I am hoping we start getting answers to sooner rather than later. I recently blogged about what to look for in preseason, but that was a list of things in general. These are a bit more specific.
How is the chemistry between Tom Brady and his WR's in New England?
We heard some glowing reports out of the joint practices between the Patriots and Eagles about Brady, but seeing him in action with a new crop of WR's (and TE's) will go a long way in determining if he retains his status as an elite fantasy QB. Julian Edelman is the only viable holdover from last season at WR but he's an oft-injured middling talent. Can Danny Amendola be the new Wes Welker? How will drafted rookies Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce look? Is undrafted rookie Kenbrell Thompkins really as good as all the training camp hype he's received? Can we finally put Michael Jenkins out to pasture? Another undrafted rookie getting a lot of hype is TE Zach Sudfeld. Reports say he is pushing Daniel Fells for being the pass catching TE until Rob Gronkowski gets back on the field. These are the things fantasy players will be paying special attention to tomorrow night and throughout the preseason.
Will it be Michael Vick or Nick Foles for Philadelphia?
I never really bought into the hype about Foles leading the competition to be the Eagles starting QB throughout OTA's, and even though Vick supposedly has outplayed Foles in training camp, Chip Kelly says Vick will start the first preseason game Foles the second. You would expect that if Kelly really felt that one guy was superior to the other he would want to make sure that player was getting as many reps as he could with the starters. I'm 75% convinced that Vick will be the guy in week 1 of the regular season, but there's that other 25% of me that isn't so sure.
Will Giovani Bernard push Benjarvus Green-Ellis into a short yardage/goal line role?
There's been a lot of talk about Bernard from Bengals camp. He's an excellent receiving RB and offers a lot more burst and explosion as a runner than BGE. It's not that BGE is a poor RB (he did manage to rush for over 1,000 yards last season, but averaged less than 4 yards per attempt to do it) but simply put, he is just a power RB with little speed, mediocre hands, and is not a very creative runner in open space. Bernard is supposed to be the opposite. Some think it may take a few weeks into the season for Bernard to really push BGE out of the starting role, but a good preseason by Bernard can make that happen a lot sooner.
Which Packers RB will be "the guy"?
Up until recently it was a common question, but Eddie Lacy reportedly blew away everyone in a recent scrimmage and has the inside track. I liked Lacy coming out in the draft and wasn't nearly as concerned as some about his foot issue. But Mike McCarthy made some waves earlier today when he referred to DuJuan Harris as his "starter". While I think this was just a way to make sure Lacy doesn't just assume the job is his from here on out, Harris did do pretty well in this past postseason. I do fully expect Lacy to be the lead RB, but will he be a 3 down workhorse RB? His ability to catch the ball and provide good pass protection blocking will be the key.
Which Rams RB will assert himself as being the lead RB?
This one has all the look of a true RBBC heading into preseason, but there's a chance one of Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead, Zac Stacy, and Terrence Ganaway will stand out over the others. Richardson and Pead both lack the size to be more than 12-15 carry guys and both are more like change of pace speed guys. Stacy is a power runner who lacks specialness to his game and Ganaway is a big bruising RB with little wiggle. Stacy seems to be the best suited for lead RB on early downs, but he's done little in training camp to stand out. Richardson gets a lot of the publicity, and did fairly well last season when he was given chances, but it's hard to really believe in a 5'11", 195 lbs primary RB. Pead is almost exactly the same size and his suspension for the first game of the season could cost him if one of the others stands out.
Will any of the Ravens WR's besides Torrey Smith distinguish themselves?
Jacoby Jones has had his opportunities to be a starter with mediocre results before when he was with the Houston Texans, but the other candidates aren't that appealing. Deonte Thompson, Tandon Doss, Tommy Streeter, Aaron Mellette, and a host of even lesser knowns are jockeying for position. None command any excitement, but someone has to step up, don't they?
Will either E.J. Manuel or Geno Smith do well enough in preseason to win the QB jobs in Buffalo and New York?
While rookie QB's usually struggle to make an impact, we've seen it happen quite a bit recently. And since Kevin Kolb and Mark Sanchez are the only things in their way, it doesn't take much imagination to see both of these rookies getting the start week 1 for their respective teams. And if the coaches are smart and make sure the offense they run is friendly to that QB's strengths and doesn't make it too hard for them right away, either or both could actually sneak into the realm of being a consideration as a backup fantasy QB.
Wide Receivers Dropping Like Flies All Over
and only ONE preseason game has been played so far!
It seems like wide receivers are dropping like flies in training camps all around the league. It's like the old Queen song:
"And another one's gone,
And another one's gone;
Another one bites the dust."
In case you've missed it, here's what's happened and what it means:
Seattle Seahawks WR Percy Harvin
Harvin suffered a torn labrum in his hip and required surgery. While he hasn't been ruled out for the entire season, there's a good chance he doesn't play this year. Seattle says they hope to have him back about week 13. In the meantime, Golden Tate steps in as the starter and with his skills, plus the fact he's in a contract year, is very likely to have fantasy WR3 value opposite Sidney Rice.
Philadelphia Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin
A torn ACL ended Maclin's 2013 season the first week of training camp. Maclin was primed to have his best season yet as 2013 is the last year of his original rookie contract, but instead he goes to injured reserve. Riley Cooper, Jason Avant, Russell Shepard, and Damaris Johnson are all battling it out to take his place, but Cooper's status is still uncertain after the video of him making a racial slur popped up on the internet and while he has returned to the team and is practicing, it remains to be seen if he can past the scrutiny and embarrassment. Avant fits better as the Eagles #3 WR, but he's still the most experienced of the candidates and a strong preseason could vaunt him into the role as their #2. Shepard and Johnson both have flashed skills, but neither is experienced and will need to impress in preseason to stand a real chance. Regardless of who wins the battle, I'd be amazed if any of them were worth more than bye week filler on fantasy rosters.
Baltimore Ravens TE Dennis Pitta
While technically not a WR, after a strong showing last season and through the Ravens Super Bowl championship run, Pitta was expected to be a large part of the Ravens passing attack in 2013. But a first week dislocated and fractured hip injury ended his season. Ed Dickson steps in as the Ravens starting TE and while he is a pretty good pass catcher, he isn't as good as Pitta. Dickson should flirt with TE2 fantasy value and could even surprise and be a low end fantasy TE1 if he can stay healthy himself. The Ravens simply don't have many other good pass catching options outside of WR Torrey Smith and RB Ray Rice.
San Diego Chargers WR Danario Alexander
Alexander tore his right ACL in practice yesterday and will miss the 2013 season. Alexander has always been supremely talented but has had multiple knee surgeries and this may be the final straw for him in his career. Vincent Brown and Malcom Floyd will be the primary beneficiaries for fantasy purposes as Brown has been one of my favorite sleepers all summer and now could have WR3 value with a chance to be much better. Eddie Royal and rookie Keenan Allen also get bumps up in fantasy value but neither is considered draftable for fantasy purposes unless Brown or Floyd gets injured too. Supreme 2012 free agent bust Robert Meachem stands little chance of attaining any value. He had none last year when he started most of the season.
Green Bay Packers WR Jordy Nelson
Nelson underwent surgery to repair nerve damage in his knee on Monday. His timetable for returning is 4-6 weeks, putting his status for week 1 of the regular season in some doubt. He's been downgraded some in his projections but still ranks as a strong fantasy WR2 unless there are any issues with his recovery. James Jones and Randall Cobb already were strong fantasy considerations, so Jarrett Boykin is about the best choice to potentially get some additional playing time until Nelson is fully recovered. I doubt if Boykin has much fantasy value unless Nelson ends up being out for a while. And at this time, it's not expected.
Philadelphia Eagles WR Arrelious Benn
Benn was challenging the other Eagles WR's to replace Maclin before he suffered a partially torn ACL and torn meniscus. Benn had been acquired by the Eagles back in Spring from Tampa Bay to challenge for the #3 WR spot, but now he'll have to wait another year to see if he ever lives up to his former status as a second round pick.
Every year we see the injuries pile up and 2013 has been no exception. All we can do is hope that it slows down to a crawl since we have only seen 1 preseason game played so far.
Preseason Not Entirely Meaningless for Fantasy Football
3 Key Things to Watch for each NFL Preseason
And so it begins.
The 2013 Hall of Fame game kicks off in a couple of hours and the preseason begins. We may see some of the regular starters briefly, but usually in the first couple of weeks of preseason we see a lot of players who aren't likely to end up making the final rosters. While the preseason games themselves are meaningless for fantasy purposes, that doesn't mean that there is nothing to be gleaned from what happens in these games.
I don't get a lot from watching these games. Schemes tend to be very generic as nobody wants to tip their hands on any new wrinkles they are reserving for the regular season. And we, as fantasy football enthusiasts, usually don't have much to watch for. But there are a couple of things that I think can be learned from watching preseason games.
1) Chemistry between Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers.
Either new offensive systems or new personnel, the timing between QB's and WR's are one of the primary things to be looking for in preseason. Are they on the same page? In particular this is going to be something to closely watch between Tom Brady and his new crop of pass catchers. While we have hope of glorious things from Brady connecting with Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson (along with maybe Josh Boyce, Kenbrell Thompkins, Michael Jenkins, and a group of TE's that includes Michael Hoomanawanui, Daniel Fells, and Zach Sudfeld) it will go a long way in making us feel better about the fantasy prospects if Brady is hitting these guys as regularly as he did his prior group of pass catchers. Dobson in particular is to be closely scrutinized, as are all the rookie WR's around the league that are expected to be big parts of their team's offense. In Houston it's DeAndre Hopkins; Minnesota, Cordarrelle Patterson; St. Louis, Tavon Austin. Each, along with Dobson, have prime opportunities to make immediate impacts for both their NFL teams, but also in fantasy football.
2) Injuries.
It's a simple fact of NFL life that there will be injuries that occur in the preseason. Heck, we barely had a week of training camp before we saw Philadelphia WR Jeremy Maclin and Baltimore TE Dennis Pitta go down for the 2013 season with season ending injuries. Maclin was shaping up as a strong WR3 on fantasy football rankings, while Pitta was expected to challenge for top 5 status at the Tight End position. Rest assured, there are going to be more name players who get injured and that will open the door for the guys behind them to get a window of opportunity. Knowing who those players are and what they do with their opportunity is a great way to identify new fantasy sleepers.
3) New starting Quarterbacks or Quarterbacks on new teams.
Matt Flynn has a pretty firm grip on the Oakland Raiders starting job. It's the first time Flynn is likely to start a regular season as a team's starting QB. How does he react under pressure? Is he effective sliding back or forth, or side to side in the pocket to avoid the rush? Does he get frazzled and just throw up an errant pass? Or does he just fall down easily when the pressure gets too close? It's the same for a QB with prior starting experience but playing on a new team. How will Carson Palmer and Alex Smith handle their new huddles? What will they do with a group of offensive lineman they haven't had actual game experience with to get to know what type of blockers they are? Are they taking charge of the huddle and commanding the respect and attention of his new teammates? How other players look at the QB in the huddle goes a long way in determining how much confidence they have in him.
These are just the primary things I always look for in the preseason. The actual outcome of the games don't mean a thing.