NFL Game Picks and Survivor Pool Lock: Week 17
Russ Bliss Predicts the Winners of each NFL Game this week
And now we come to the end of another season. I have been much worse on the weekly picks than I usually am and fell wildly short of the annual goal of 180 correct. Going 11-5 in week 16 was okay, but I still only have a record of 151-88-1 on the season as a whole. Far short of where I thought I'd be when the season began. But we have one more week left and I continue to do my best.
My week 17 NFL game predictions:
Cincinnati 24, Baltimore 17
Carolina 20, Atlanta 17
Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20
Minnesota 27, Detroit 20
Tennessee 23, Houston 14
Indianapolis 27, Jacksonville 17
Miami 23, NY Jets 10
NY Giants 21, Washington 20
New England 24, Buffalo 16
Denver 38, Oakland 24
Green Bay 31, Chicago 29
San Diego 37, Kansas City 17
Arizona 23, San Francisco 16
Seattle 20, St. Louis 13
Tampa Bay 28, New Orleans 27
Philadelphia 35, Dallas 17
There they are: my week 17 game picks.
I also really sucked on my Survivor Pool Locks this season. 10-6 on the weekly locks is about as bad as you can be. Detroit losing to the Giants last week was just another one of those disappointments for me this season. Here are the weekly picks and results:
Week 1 (W; 21-17) Indianapolis over Oakland
Week 2 (L; 30-33) Philadelphia over San Diego
Week 3 (W; 45-17) Seattle over Jacksonville
Week 4 (W; 52-20) Denver over Philadelphia
Week 5 (W; 34-20) St. Louis over Jacksonville
Week 6 (W; 24-7) Kansas City over Oakland
Week 7 (L; 27-30) New England over NY Jets
Week 8 (W; 42-10) San Francisco over Jacksonville
Week 9 (W; 27-23) Dallas over Minnesota
Week 10 (L; 27-29) Tennessee over Jacksonville
Week 11 (L; 23-28) Houston over Oakland
Week 12 (W; 17-13) New Orleans over Atlanta
Week 13 (L; 31-34) Buffalo over Atlanta
Week 14 (W; 29-26) Baltimore over Minnesota
Week 15 (W; 30-20) Carolina over NY Jets
Week 16 (L; 20-23) Detroit over NY Giants
There are no shortages of games to choose from this week but I really think there is one that stands out. The Chiefs are locked in as the 5th seed in the AFC and can do nothing to improve or lose that spot. They are very likely to sit many of the starters, or at least play them sparingly, and with San Diego clinging to slim hopes of a playoff spot, they will be going all out this week. This game shouldn't even be close.
My Survivor Pool Lock for Week 17 is: the San Diego Chargers over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Best of luck to all in your own picks this week and I'll be posting a recap next week along with weekly playoff game picks.
Fantasy Football News and Notes 12-26-13
News and Notes from Thursday Night's "Red Zone" Radio Show
Fantasy News and Notes 12-26-13:
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers has been cleared to return and will start week 17 for the Packers. Matt Flynn goes back to the bench.
Cam Newton's ankle injury is believed to be minor and he says it will not affect his mobility week 17.
While the Cowboys refuse to throw in the towel on Tony Romo he is highly doubtful to get cleared to play week 17 with a herniated disc in his back. Kyle Orton should start in his place Sunday night. Dallas signed Jon Kitna to be Orton's backup.
Ryan Tannehill's knee injury is considered minor and he is expected to start week 17 without issue.
It's uncertain if E.J. Manuel will start week 17 or not. Buffalo said last week they expect him to be okay for week 17 despite another knee injury, but then earlier this week they expressed doubt. However, Manuel has been practicing. But really, with nothing to play for and a lot to risk by exposing their supposed QB of the future, I'm thinking saner heads will prevail and that Thaddeus Lewis will start and Manuel be held out. But that's just a guess.
Another guess is that the Texans will start case Case Keenum this week over Matt Schaub. Keenum has been able to practice some and appears to be recovered enough from the sprained thumb on his throwing hand that he'll be able to start. But again, that's just a guess.
Despite his knee injury clearly affecting him in week 16, Joe Flacco is not even on the injury report for Baltimore this week. But don't let that fool you; Flacco is far from being 100%.
Oakland is turning back to Terrelle Pryor as their starting QB week 17. Matt McGloin has been fairly awful the last few weeks and it's a little surprising it took this long for the Raiders to go back to Pryor.
Running Backs
Owners of Jamaal Charles are likely to have to find another RB to start this week. The Chiefs are locked in as the 5th seed in the AFC playoffs and have nothing to play for at all. Andy Reid has intimated that he is inclined to either rest many of his key starters, or play them sparingly, so it's likely rookie Knile Davis will handle the bulk of the RB duties for the Chiefs this week with Cyrus Gray as his top backup.
Eddie Lacy has yet to practice this week after he aggravated his ankle injury week 16 but the Packers say they expect him to be okay to play week 17. With the division title and a playoff spot up for grabs, I expect lacy will start. We may see a good bit more of James Starks than we normally do though.
Adrian Peterson is very questionable for week 17 because of his foot and groin injuries. The Vikings would be wise to shut him down in a meaningless week 17 game but wisdom may not prevail. Even if active, I would expect Peterson to be limited some. With Toby Gerhart unable to practice after he aggravated his hamstring injury last week, it could very well be Joe Banyard who starts for Minnesota. Matt Asiata could be in the mix as well, but he's still dealing with a hamstring injury of his own.
Reggie Bush is expected to be the lead RB for Detroit this week. Bush was benched in favor of Joique Bell after he lost another fumble in week 16.
Ryan Mathews is expected to be okay for week 17 despite having missed practices this week with an ankle injury. Mathews has been enjoying the best success he's ever had the last 8 games and I expect he'll continue to be a surprise strong fantasy contributor again week 17.
The concussion suffered by Andre Brown week 16 must have been a mild one as he's already been cleared to return to practice and barring any setbacks he will start Sunday for the Giants. Peyton Hillis has also been cleared to return from the concussion that held him out of week 16 so he'll be back as Brown's backup.
Shane Vereen is uncertain to play week 17 because of a groin injury suffered week 16. Vereen has been practicing in limited capacity this week but the Patriots may choose to hold him out so he can get healed up as much as possible for the playoffs. If Vereen doesn't play Brandon Bolden would be the primary 3rd down and receiving RB for the Patriots this week.
Houston will start Jonathan Grimes at RB this week. Week 16 starter Dennis Johnson suffered a hip injury and is very questionable to play. His top backup last week, Deji Karim, broke his collarbone in that game and his season is done. That leaves Grimes as the starter with recently signed Ray Graham as depth behind him. The season can't end soon enough for the Texans.
Jonathan Stewart is expected to miss week 17 as he continues to rest up a knee injury. DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert will again be the committee at RB for Carolina this week.
Jacquizz Rodgers is expected to miss week 17 with a concussion. Antone Smith likely will be the top change of pace RB to Steven Jackson.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson is very questionable for week 17 because of knee and ankle injuries. Rumors are that Megatron has a partially torn PCL and will require surgery after the season. Now that Detroit has let every chance of making the playoffs slip through their fingers, I doubt Johnson will play week 17.
Dwayne Bowe has been diagnosed with a concussion and he is not going to play week 17. He wasn't going to play anyway with the Chiefs being locked in as the 5th seed. Stay away from KC players this week as the usual starters aren't going to play much, if at all.
Dez Bryant aggravated his chronic back issue in practice Wednesday and was held out of practice altogether today. He insists he'll be fine for week 17 but even if he is, he obviously will be less than 100%.
Green Bay may have Randall Cobb back this week. He practiced in pads with the team today and while they haven't activated him off the IR/Designated for Return list yet, they can do so at any time before Sunday's game. I think they will, but I also think they'll have him on a snap count as this would be his first action since breaking his leg back in week 6. This all said, it's just what I think will happen; officially, Cobb hasn't been activated yet.
Pittsburgh's Emmanuel Sanders is uncertain to play week 17 because of a knee injury suffered week 16. An MRI revealed no structural damage, but he has a sprain of some sort and may not be able to play.
Carolina will be without Steve Smith week 17. Smith suffered a sprained PCL week 16 and the Panthers will take no chances with him as they need him for the playoffs. Ted Ginn is expected to start opposite Brandon LaFell.
Seattle will be without Percy Harvin week 17. This is not a surprise as Harvin is still dealing with issues in his surgically repaired hip and the best case scenario all along has been he'll return for the playoffs.
Reuben Randle is uncertain to play week 17 after missing practice today with a listed knee injury. Randle wasn't on yesterday's injury list so this is a bit concerning. With Victor Cruz out with a knee injury himself, Jerrel Jernigan could end up starting opposite Hakeem Nicks this week if Randle can't play.
Tavon Austin has been unable to practice at all this week and he appears doubtful for week 17 because of the ankle injury that has kept him out each of the last 2 games.
Buffalo's Steve Johnson has yet to return to the team after missing last week to be with his family while they mourned the passing of his mother. It's very likely with little to play for the team will excuse him for week 17.
Tight Ends
Jordan Cameron has yet to gain clearance to return to practice because of the concussion that prevented him from playing week 16. He's not likely to play week 17 either. Gary Barnidge will be the Browns primary TE again this week.
Garrett Graham has been ruled OUT for week 17 because of his hamstring injury. Ryan Griffin closes out the year as the Texans starting TE.
Brandon Pettigrew was placed on IR yesterday because of an ankle injury. With Dorin Dickerson also going to IR today because of a concussion, Joseph Fauria has TE duties all too himself in week 17 for the Lions.
Tyler Eifert has been unable to practice yet this week because of a neck stinger injury he suffered week 16. His status for week 17 is very uncertain. Also uncertain for the Bengals is Jermaine Gresham. Gresham played through a listed abdominal injury week 16, but this week he's listed as having a hamstring injury that caused him to miss practice today after limiting him yesterday. I don't know if Marvin Lewis has joined in on the injury report fun and games that other coaches have with it, but this is a situation that won't likely be cleared up until tomorrow's official injury report comes out.
NFL Game Picks and Survivor Pool Lock: Week 16
Russ Bliss Predicts the Winners of each NFL Game this week
And the disappointment continues…
10-6 in week 14 brings the overall record for the 2013 season to 140-83-1. An efficiency rating of 62.7% correct is hugely disappointing to me personally. No excuse other than that's just the way it's gone this season. There are two weeks left and so I'll do my best to at least bring it up 65%, but in order to do that I'm going to need to hit on 26 of the remaining 32 games. So I need to go 13-3 on average the last 2 weeks.
Week 16 NFL Game Predictions:
NY Jets 20, Cleveland 17
Dallas 31, Washington 28
Denver 41, Houston 14
Kansas City 27, Indianapolis 16
Buffalo 19, Miami 16
Cincinnati 30, Minnesota 20
New Orleans 24, Carolina 23
St. Louis 23, Tampa Bay 21
Tennessee 23, Jacksonville 13
Seattle 29, Arizona 20
Detroit 31, NY Giants 10
New England 26, Baltimore 23
San Diego 27, Oakland 20
Green Bay 23, Pittsburgh 20
Philadelphia 31, Chicago 29
San Francisco 35, Atlanta 17
There you have them, my week 16 NFL game picks.
Carolina came through over the Jets last week in the Survivor Pool Lock. While I've blown 5 weeks, it's nice to be at 10-5 as opposed to 9-6. Here are the weekly picks and results:
Week 1 (W; 21-17) Indianapolis over Oakland
Week 2 (L; 30-33) Philadelphia over San Diego
Week 3 (W; 45-17) Seattle over Jacksonville
Week 4 (W; 52-20) Denver over Philadelphia
Week 5 (W; 34-20) St. Louis over Jacksonville
Week 6 (W; 24-7) Kansas City over Oakland
Week 7 (L; 27-30) New England over NY Jets
Week 8 (W; 42-10) San Francisco over Jacksonville
Week 9 (W; 27-23) Dallas over Minnesota
Week 10 (L; 27-29) Tennessee over Jacksonville
Week 11 (L; 23-28) Houston over Oakland
Week 12 (W; 17-13) New Orleans over Atlanta
Week 13 (L; 31-34) Buffalo over Atlanta
Week 14 (W; 29-26) Baltimore over Minnesota
Week 15 (W; 30-20) Carolina over NY Jets
This week there are a few games that shouldn't even be close, and luckily I still have a team to pick from that group. Keeping in true Survivor Pool form, I won't select the same team twice despite my having blown it a few times over this season. The only thing that concerns me about my pick this week is that it's a team that historically is a weekly "Jekyll and Hyde" act. Luckily they're at home though against what has been the NFL equivalent of the keystone cops this season. The Lions have no excuse for not swatting the Giants this week in what is essentially a must win for them.
My Survivor Pool Lock for Week 16 is: the Detroit Lions over the New York Giants.
Best of luck to all in your picks and Happy Holidays!
Fantasy Football News and Notes 12-19-13
News and Notes from Thursday Night's "Red Zone" Radio Show
Fantasy News and Notes 12-19-13:
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers was limited in practice again today and he is appearing very unlikely to get cleared in time to play week 16. There's still a chance, but it's slim and I'm expecting Matt Flynn is going to start again week 16 for Green Bay. The Packers are expected to announce whether Rodgers has been cleared to play or not tomorrow.
The knee injury suffered by Joe Flacco has been diagnosed as a mild MCL sprain and while he will have to wear a knee brace Sunday, he is fully expected to start for the Ravens.
Running Backs
Eddie Lacy sat out practice again today for the Packers. Lacy has an ankle injury but he is expected to return to practice tomorrow and be fine for week 16.
Adrian Peterson sat out practice today after getting in a limited practice yesterday. While this is a little concerning, it needs to be remembered that Peterson was only practicing once or twice a week the last few weeks because of various injuries. Currently, Peterson is still expected to play week 16 despite his mid-foot sprain.
Donald Brown practiced for a second consecutive day today. He'll be fine for his usual role in week 16.
Maurice Jones-Drew was unable to practice again today because of his hamstring injury. At this point it's sounding unlikely that MJD will play week 16. It won't be official until we see whether he can practice at all tomorrow, but tentatively, I'm expecting Jordan Todman will start in his place again.
Wide Receivers
Larry Fitzgerald returned to a full practice today for the Cardinals. He has one more concussion test to pass, which he'll take tomorrow. As long as he shows no ill effects from today's practice, he's expected to get cleared and play week 16.
Victor Cruz has been ruled OUT for week 16 after having minor knee surgery. Cruz is done for the 2013 season as he won't be able to play week 17 either. Why the Giants are waiting to place him on injured reserve, I don't know. Usually, the Giants are one of the more "no-nonsense" type teams.
Wes Welker missed practice again today because of his concussion. Welker is extremely unlikely to play week 16.
Calvin Johnson didn't practice again today because of his lingering knee issue. While it's believed the Lions are just being ultra-careful with Megatron, it is a little concerning after he was a surprise inactive way back in week 5. No one seems concerned that he won't play so as long as that doesn't change, you should be fine considering him as you normally would.
T.Y. Hilton was added to the injury report today as not having practiced because of a shoulder injury. Hilton wasn't on yesterday's injury list so this is concerning. Be sure to pay attention to tomorrow's injury report for his official designation for week 16 if you were planning on starting him. On the plus side for the Colts, LaVon Brazill has practiced in full each of the last two days and appears on track to play week 16 after missing last week with a foot injury.
For a second consecutive day, Randall Cobb took part in a limited practice today. But word is that he is not ready to return from his leg injury and he is not expected to play week 16.
Steve Smith sat out practice today because of his finger injury. This is a bit concerning but the Panthers say they expect Smith to play. Tentatively expect Smith to be okay but a finger injury isn't optimum for guys who make their fantasy production on catching passes.
Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, and Kenbrell Thompkins all were listed as limited in practice today. In fact, about 25% of New England's roster was listed as limited. It's nice to see the Patriots get back to their injury report game playing ways. Here's the skinny: Amendola is fully expected to play this week despite a groin injury; Dobson is tentatively expected to play for the first time in 3 weeks because of a foot injury; Thompkins has put in limited practices each day of the last two prior weeks but has been inactive on game days because of his hip injury. There's no telling if he'll play or not.
Terrence Williams was unable to practice again today because of a hamstring injury. He is not expected to be able to play week 16 for Dallas. Expect Miles Austin to be full time as the #2 WR this week with Cole Beasley taking over as the Cowboys #3 WR in a tasty matchup on paper this week.
Eddie Royal has missed practice each of the last 2 days and while he has played through his toe injury before, I would consider his status to be questionable for week 16.
Tight Ends
Jordan Cameron remained out of practice today because of his concussion. It's beginning to sound like he is not going to gain clearance to play week 16. Gary Barnidge would be the Browns primary TE if Cameron can't play.
Washington finally placed Jordan Reed on injured reserve because of his lingering concussion symptoms. Logan Paulsen and Fred Davis will finish out the season splitting up the TE duties for the Redskins.
John Carlson suffered a setback in his return from a concussion and he did not practice today. Carlson put in a full practice yesterday but apparently he experienced some symptoms today and now he is not expected to play week 16.
Garrett Graham sat out practice again today for Houston. He is not expected to play week 16 because of his hamstring injury. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes to injured reserve soon. I expect Ryan Griffin to finish out the season as the Texans starting TE.
Jermaine Gresham put in another full practice today despite his abdominal injury. He is now expected to play. All this does for fantasy purposes is make Tyler Eifert a lot less likely to have a big game as the two take targets away from each other.
Anthony Fasano put in a full practice today and he appears to be on track to play week 16 after missing week 15 with knee and concussion issues. He's hard to trust as a fantasy option though.