Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice from the Experts

Following is some hot-off-the-press advice on this season's rookie quarterbacks from Russ Bliss, fantasy football expert who hosts "The Red Zone" on KDUS-AM Sports radio.

Quarterbacks

Rookie quarterbacks rarely make any impact on the fantasy landscape and this year’s crop is no different. That said there are as many as 7 who could be players with value in the future, and only 1 with any chance of putting up good numbers in 2005. And that’s only because he’s likely to be the starter from day one in a division with questionable defenses. Realistically, drafting any of these players will only be beneficial to you in keeper/dynasty leagues.

2005 impact ranking:

1. Alex Smith
2. Charlie Frye
3. Adrian McPherson
4. Jason Campbell
5. Andrew Walter
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Kyle Orton
8. David Greene
9. Dan Orlovsky
10. Stephen LeFors
11. Derek Anderson
12. James Kilian
13. Ryan Fitzpatrick
14. Matt Cassel

Dynasty Values:

1. Andrew Walter (only because of who drafted him and the supporting cast. Always go for the boom! Winning in fantasy football is by those who identify the boom players, not the average ones).
2. Adrian McPherson
3. Charlie Frye
4. Jason Campbell
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Alex Smith
7. Dan Orlovsky
8. Kyle Orton
9. Stephen LeFors
10. Derek Anderson
11. David Greene
12. Ryan Fitzpatrick
13. James Kilian
14. Matt Cassel

Comments (in order drafted):

Alex Smith, Round 1, San Francisco 49ers: Smith is easily the QB of the future for the 49ers, and has an excellent chance of beginning the season as the starter for San Francisco. Smith has strong leadership skills and shows great accuracy on his short and intermediate passes. His ability to throw the long ball accurately is in question. Smith is also an excellent running QB.
2005 outlook: Will struggle in the transition from the spread offense he ran in college to the pro game. Likely fantasy impact is minimal, but also likely to be the only rookie QB to have any immediate fantasy value.
Beyond 2005: Is a solid prospect as a good starting fantasy QB, but likely will never be a great fantasy QB. Could easily be the type of QB who is a much better NFL QB than fantasy QB.

Aaron Rodgers, Round 1, Green Bay Packers: Two weeks before the draft, Rodgers was supposed to be the best rookie QB in the draft. What happened after that is debatable. Supposedly, the way he holds the ball (as taught to him at California) isn’t sound NFL technique. Regardless, he comes into a great situation as Brett Favre’s backup for at least one full season, and possibly two, allowing him to learn from one of the NFL’s best. Like Smith, he is a smart QB who excels with the shorter passing game while being inconsistent with his deep passes.
2005 outlook: Unless ironman Favre suffers a major injury, Rodgers will only see mop up time at best as a rookie.
Beyond 2005: If Favre retires after this season, Rodgers stands an excellent chance of stepping in and looking a lot like Carson Palmer did his first year as the starter for the Bengals (growing pains but showing signs). If Favre plays in 2006, Rodgers is more likely to look like Chad Pennington (who had two years holding the clipboard for the Jets before stepping in and looking solid). Rodgers is potentially a better fantasy QB prospect than Smith.

Jason Campbell, Round 1, Washington Redskins: Campbell showed marked improvement his senior season and impressed the Redskins enough for them to trade into the bottom half of the first round to get him as their QB of the future. He comes into a good situation as he won’t have to start right away and can work on improving his skills for the NFL level. Although athletic, Campbell is not known as a QB who makes plays with his legs.
2005 outlook: Likely to be the third QB behind Patrick Ramsey and Mark Brunell. Will only get action if Ramsey completely flops and Brunell shows a continued slide in skills.
Beyond 2005: Campbell is undoubtedly the future of the Redskins as they have shown no real interest in Ramsey being their future. There is a lot of potential for Campbell to be a solid fantasy QB in 2006, but more than likely, his payoff isn’t until 2007.

Charlie Frye, Round 3, Cleveland Browns: Likely to be the latest of several MAC QB’s who take their game to the next level in the NFL. Has good arm strength and plays injured.
2005 outlook: The Browns traded last year’s rookie QB Luke McCown to Tampa Bay and acquired free agent Trent Dilfer to lead them this year. Frye will only get action if Dilfer gets injured or fails miserably.
Beyond 2005: The Browns know Dilfer is only a stop gap at the position and were thrilled to get Frye in round 3. A good leader, Frye should be a guy you keep your eye on for 2006 and beyond as he should develop into a potentially solid fantasy QB in 2 to 3 years.

Andrew Walter, Round 3, Oakland Raiders: Exactly the team to take Walter in exactly the round I predicted they would. Walter fits the Raiders ideal of a vertical passer like a glove. The shoulder injury he suffered his senior year might not be totally healed by the start of the season, but the Raiders aren’t thinking about 2005, they’re thinking 2006. Walter is at his best throwing the deep pass and although he is inconsistent on his short passes that’s something Norv Turner can coach him in.
2005 outlook: Clipboard holder and 3^rd string QB behind Kerry Collins and Marques Tuiasosopo.
Beyond 2005: Watch out. With the Raiders speedy WR corps and desire to throw downfield, Walter is in a great situation to be an awesome fantasy QB in 2 to 3 years. Big time boom or bust player.

David Greene, Round 3, Seattle Seahawks: Holds the NCAA Division 1A record for career wins by a quarterback with 42. A good leader, Greene had a solid supporting cast around him that probably made him appear better than he really is. A good short ball thrower, Greene lacks deep ball throwing ability.
2005 outlook: Not likely to make any impact this year. Will compete for the backup spot behind Matt Hasselbeck.
Beyond 2005: Hasselbeck signed a long term contract this offseason with Seattle. Unless he gets injured, Greene is likely never anything more than a career backup.

Kyle Orton, Round 4, Chicago Bears: Orton joins a suspect cast of QB’s in Chicago. Gifted with a strong, but not always reliable arm, Orton is an intelligent QB in a place where he could eventually start.
2005 outlook:  Will battle Craig Krenzel and Kurt Kittner for the 3^rd QB spot behind Rex Grossman and Chad Hutchinson and might even supplant Hutchinson as primary backup.
Beyond 2005: All depends on Grossman and Hutchinson. Gut feeling is that Orton likely will get a chance to be a starter for the Bears in a couple of years, but am not sold on him being more than a one year filler while the team looks elsewhere.

Stephen LeFors, Round 4, Carolina Panthers: A solid leader with good field vision, LeFors is known for his ability to manage a game in a smart manner. In Carolina’s run oriented offense, that’s pretty much what he’d have to do if called upon.
2005 outlook: Will battle Chris Weinke for the backup job to Jake Delhomme.
Beyond 2005: Not likely to be anything more than a backup QB because of his lack of ideal size (6’0”, 206 lbs). However, he is in the right system where he wouldn’t be expected to carry the team if his chance came.

Dan Orlovsky, Round 5, Detroit Lions: A big QB with solid skills and leadership abilities, Orlovsky will need time to adjust to the pro game. Luckily, he’s in Detroit where there’s no immediate need for him to step in prematurely. He’ll get a chance to develop and get accustomed to the speed of the pro’s.
2005 outlook: 3^rd string QB behind Joe Harrington and Jeff Garcia.
Beyond 2005: Harrington hasn’t proven he is a competent NFL QB, and Garcia isn’t the long term answer if Harrington fails. Harrington is now surrounded by great talent and has no excuses if he doesn’t prove worthy this season. Orlovsky has a good chance to show what he can do in a couple of years. He could end up being that diamond in the rough fantasy owners brag about taking late in dynasty leagues.

Adrian McPherson, Round 5, New Orleans: By now, you’ve all heard about his dubious past. Check forgery and gambling scandal cut his college career short. Has shown marked maturity in his honesty regarding those issues. Played for the Indiana Firebirds of the Arena Football League last year and was a star. McPherson is a tremendous athlete with all the physical skills to make it at the NFL level.
2005 outlook: Will battle Todd Bouman and Kliff Kingsbury for the backup spot to Aaron Brooks.
Beyond 2005: Brooks has yet to show the Saints the consistency needed to lead them. Neither Bouman nor Kingsbury are the long term solution. McPherson was a favorite of mine heading into this draft to come into the NFL and make an impact in a couple of years. McPherson has the tools necessary to become a solid starting fantasy QB in 2006 or 2007. A real sleeper prospect with big boom or bust potential.

Derek Anderson, Round 6, Baltimore Ravens: Big, tall, strong armed QB who makes poor decisions. Kind of sounds like who the Ravens have currently as their starter. If he doesn’t learn to read defenses better and stop forcing the ball into coverage, he won’t last long as even a backup.
2005 outlook: 3^rd string QB behind Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright.
Beyond 2005: If Jim Fassel can coach Anderson out of some bad habits, there’s a chance he develops into a good starting QB in a couple of years. But that’s a big if and I’m doubtful.

James Kilian, Round 7, Kansas City Chiefs: Known as an excellent leader, Kilian had a better junior year than senior year in college. Not strong armed, Kilian is clearly a developmental prospect who likely doesn’t make it in the NFL.
2005 outlook: Practice squad, maybe even for another team if he gets cut early enough.
Beyond 2005: It would take a lot for Kilian to have any impact even 2 to 3 years from now.

Matt Cassel, Round 7, New England Patriots: Don’t even think he’s the next Tom Brady. Cassel was Matt Leinart’s backup last year and has also played tight end in college. In 33 career games at USC, Cassel has thrown a whopping 33 passes.
2005 outlook: Practice squad possibility. Switch to another position also a possibility.
Beyond 2005: I’ll eat a bowl of sand if Cassel ever makes a fantasy impact at QB.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Round 7, St. Louis Rams: A very smart QB (coming from Harvard, what do you expect?), Fitzpatrick was a bit of a surprise selection for a team that supposedly has confidence in the development of Jeff Smoker (last year’s 6^th round QB selection). Fitzpatrick is a good leader, smart, with decent size and accuracy on short passes.
2005 outlook: Practice squad. Not likely to beat out Smoker or Jamie Martin as the backup to Mark Bulger.
Beyond 2005: No offense to the skills of Jay Fiedler, but I just can’t think of any Ivy League QB’s who have made a splash in the NFL in recent years. Can’t think of any reason why Fitzpatrick would be any different.

Copyright © 2005 Ready-Set-Go Fantasy Sports, LLC. All rights reserved.

Stay tuned to Fantasy Football Starters for more insight, picks and tips from "The Red Zone."