April 2008 IDP Article

How the NFL draft effects my team.

By: Robert Kirlin aka: The IDP Guru

At the time I am writing this, the 2008 NFL draft is just a mere 2 weeks away. Those of us here in the Pittsburgh area are getting excited as our hockey team has an excellent shot at going deep into the Stanley Cup Playoffs which means we’re not stuck watching the Pirates, and can only hope to occupy our time until training camp for the Steelers opens.

In the world of Fantasy Football, there is not always a lot to occupy our time (although for myself, I find a lot to do during the off season in to prepare for the upcoming season).

If you’ve followed my January IDP articles, I summarized the previous season, looked at mistakes I made as well as others in my league and what I could do to improve.

In my February IDP article, I gave an in depth synopsis of what an IDP league is all about, and what you should do when taking into account the players you draft in accordance to changes in coaching, players, schemes, and philosophies.

My March article dealt with NFL Free Agency and how it can effect the players you draft as they may move into either good or bad situations.

April will deal with the 2008 NFL draft and how this years crops of rookies can help you.

In an NFL Fantasy Football IDP league, for the most part, rookies are an unwanted commodity, but there are often a few gems out there, you just have to no what to look for.

In a lot of cases, you have older veterans who have been hanging on for to long or have finally called it quits after a long career. Warren Sapp of Oakland comes to mind as he perhaps has stayed to long, but finally has decided to call it a career. This is an interesting spot as the Raiders are slated to pick 4th overall and many have Darren McFadden penciled in as the #4 pick in the draft, but that’s the media who’s picking this. If you take a strong look at the Raiders, they just resigned Justin Fargas at Running Back, and there was a stud Running Back out of Louisville by the name of Michael Bush who sat out just about all of last season due to a knee injury he suffered in college, but should be 100% ready to go. Therefore, I think the smart move is going to be on the D-Line for the Raiders, and if Glenn Dorsey of LSU falls to #4, I really think Al Davis has a hard time passing on him.

Okay, so I got a little ahead of myself in the NFL Fantasy predictions page, but quite honestly, there are few defensive players who will make a big splash on the defensive line, and even fewer at the DT position that Dorsey would play.

The real position you want to target is at linebacker. These are the players who will score you the most points, and can often offset at running back by your opponent in many particular weeks.

Last season, I targeted 3 linebackers who I felt would make an immediate impact in the NFL, Paul Posluzny of the Bills who had a season ending knee injury, Jon Beason of the Carolina Panthers who spent much of the first half of the season on the bench backing up Dan Morgan, but then having a strong second half, and finally, San Francisco 49er Patrick Willis who led the league in tackles and was the NFL defensive rookie of the year.

This season, there are a few to watch out for, but you have to also consider the schemes that they’re going to be playing in as opposed to what they played in college. Your Outside Linebackers in college are generally your best athletes on the field, but they may end up in the middle because they’re not as tall as some would like, or are going to be in a 3-4 defense for the first time and may take a while to excel. Inside Linebackers in college are generally drafted in lower rounds as they are put in the middle in college due to the fact that they may have deficiencies in certain areas (height, speed, size, strength) but they can get away with it because of like, or weak competition. When coming into the NFL, they’ll face an even tougher battle.

Secondary Players generally will be slower to develop as well, they are out on an island, and it usually takes a year or two under their belts to get used to the speed of the NFL. If you do target a rookie for your IDP league in the secondary, your best bet is usually at strong safety as they will put up a lot of points in tackles, particularly if the team that drafts them has a weak front 7.

Also be aware of this when drafting NFL rookies for your IDP league, many of these players are used to an 11 game season, and don’t have half the practices and pre season games that the NFL does, and there bodies and minds start breaking down around week #8, there are only a special rookies worthy of making your team in an IDP league, as an example, I drafted Patrick Willis as my 5thrd pick in a league that makes 300 picks! overall linebacker which was good for the 293

That being said, you can strike it rich if you do your homework and know your NFL Fantasy IDP league. If you know that others aren’t doing there’s than you know where you can possibly draft that hidden gem.

Predicting how well rookies will play in the NFL is next to impossible, but here’s a few players you may want to keep your eyes on this fall when it’s time for you to draft:

DL: Vernon Ghoulston, Chris Long, Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, Phillip Merling.

LB: Keith Rivers, Dan Connor, Curtis Lofton

DB: Tyrell Johnson, Brandon Flowers

Finally, the best bit of advice I can give you when considering drafting a rookie in an NFL Fantasy Football IDP league. Under no circumstances should you ever take him as the 1st or even second choice at that position, there are plenty of studs out there who play in the NFL, and know what it takes on an every day basis to succeed. Let someone else take the risk, the ones that pay off are few and far between.

Next month I will touch on NFL IDP veterans, is there stock going up as they’ve just changed teams or schemes that could feature them prominently, or are they on there way down just hoping to get one or two more years.