Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice from the Experts

Third-Year Wide Receivers -- By Russ Bliss

If you’ve followed fantasy football over the years, you’ve probably heard about how wide receivers usually don’t reach their potential until their 3rd season. Some WRs buck that trend, but for the most part it’s held true. Javon Walker and Reggie Wayne were both 3rd year WRs last year and both finished as top 10 fantasy WRs. Ashley Lelie really started to come along and produced over 1,000 yards. After missing the first 7 games of the year, Deion Branch made some strides. Ronald Curry (originally drafted as a QB in 2002) became a name fantasy players soon recognized. After he got traded from Dallas to Cleveland, Antonio Bryant had his best season in only 10 games played. And surprisingly, although it wasn’t his best statistical season, Donte Stallworth managed to stay healthy for an entire 16 games for the first time in his career. That has to be attributed to something. Here’s a list of this year’s 3rd year WRs, with projections and how they’re being treated in fantasy drafts.

1. Andre Johnson: Already considered by many to be a top 10 fantasy WR, Johnson is nearing elite WR status. Johnson saw both his yards and TDs improve in 2004 from his rookie season. Despite getting no help at all from other Texan WRs, Johnson managed to increase his yardage totals by 17% and his TDs by 50%. Apply that same increase to him in 2005, and you get 1,336 yards and 9 TDs. If any other Texan WR (Jabar Gaffney, Corey Bradford, Derick Armstrong, or rookie Jerome Mathis) steps up and prevents opponents from constantly double-teaming Johnson, it’s likely he can make an even bigger jump in his production. A solid #1 fantasy WR usually going in round 3 or 4.
2. Nate Burleson: Burleson is the only Vikings WR guaranteed a starting job for the regular season. He’s been named as their #1 guy, and after putting up 1,006 yards and 10 TDs in the shadows of Randy Moss and Marcus Robinson, Burleson is by some considered to be a top 12 fantasy WR, with most having him in their top 20 at least. Detractors will point at his seeming lack of production in games when Moss didn’t play last year, but in the 5 games Moss either missed completely or played sparingly attempting to play through injury, Burleson caught 29 passes (an average of nearly 6 per game) for 297 yards, and 4 TDs. Assuming he gets absolutely no better in his 3rd year, and those averages project out for a full 16 games: 92 receptions for 950 yards and 12 TDs. And personally, I’d bank on him eclipsing 1100 yards. A borderline #1/2 fantasy WR in 2005 going in rounds 4 or 5 most of the time.
3. Anquan Boldin: After the best rookie season a WR has had since Randy Moss splashed onto the scene, Boldin missed the first 6 games of 2004 recovering from knee surgery. When he came back he wasn’t 100% but still managed to put up 56 receptions for 623 yards. He only scored once though as the Cards struggled in that aspect of their passing game when they weren’t throwing to rookie Larry Fitzgerald (who at 6-3, 223 lbs provided a bigger end zone target as his 8 TDs attest to). Boldin suffered a broken nose in training camp, but is expected to be fine for the regular season. The presence of Fitzgerald (plus the possible emergence of fellow 3rd year WR Bryant Johnson) could mean that Boldin doesn’t attain solid #1 Fantasy WR status ever. As it stands, he’s a good #3 fantasy WR in standard sized leagues with the chance to produce like a #2. Is going anywhere from round 4 to round 8 as there is a lot of split opinion of him.
4. Charles Rogers: Can he avoid breaking his collarbone for a third consecutive season and stay on the field? Rogers has played in only 6 regular games in two years because of two broken collarbone injuries. Few question his talent, but how will he be able to use it when the Lions have second year WR Roy Williams (who looked like he was going to be a great fantasy WR last year before an ankle injury week 4 hobbled him the rest of the season), plus have added rookie Mike Williams (who at 6’5” 229 lbs is a behemoth)? Rogers, although slated to start, is a high risk player with medium sized rewards with the other options the Lions have. Rogers is best off being a 4th or 5th WR on your fantasy teams. Anything higher is an unwise gamble.
5. Tyrone Calico: Physically gifted and fast, Calico hasn’t been able to practice much with the Titans because he’s recovering from knee surgery from last season. He’s expected to start at WR for Tennessee and take the place of Derrick Mason. He dodged a legal bullet when a judge threw out a charge of public indecency in July. Now he has to prove he can be healthy for the 2005 season and is ready to step up. With only 20 career receptions it’s hard to gauge whether he’s ready to do so. The Titans need a WR opposite Drew Bennett though and Calico is set to be their guy. His fantasy outlook for 2005 is hard to predict. Expect him to be a 4th or 5th WR on your roster with the upside to surprise.
6. Brandon Lloyd: Lloyd is an inconsistent, albeit playmaking, WR in a bad situation. Let’s face it, the 49ers with either Alex Smith or Tim Rattay at QB aren’t expected to be a very good passing or running team this year. Lloyd is a player who can highlight catches, but then disappears as he seems to lose focus. He did put up 565 yards and scored 6 TDs last year though and if he can gain some consistency, he could be a real find. A big plus for him is that he’s in a contract year. A big minus for him is that the 49ers haven’t decided on who will be their 2 starting WRs yet between him, 3rd year WR Arnaz Battle, and free agent Johnnie Morton. Lloyd’s best off as a 4th or 5th WR with potential to be better, but by no means a sure thing.
7. Kevin Curtis: Drafted in the 3rd round by the Rams in 2003, Curtis is blazing fast and also has great hands. Biggest knock on him is his size. At 5’11”, 186 lbs, he’s smaller than ideal for a starting WR. Curtis opened some eyes last year when starting for an injured Isaac Bruce in the playoffs with 11 receptions for 235 yards and a TD in two games. Curtis has the inside track on the team’s #3 WR spot and is an injury away from becoming a hot commodity in fantasy football. Curtis is also in a contract year. For fantasy purposes, he’s usually been a late round pick or has gone undrafted. That’s a mistake in my opinion because of what he represents if there were an injury to Torry Holt or Isaac Bruce. I’d gladly have as a 5th WR over some of the mediocre guys being drafted in front of him.
8. Bryant Johnson: After being drafted in the first round back in 2003, Johnson has posted two disappointing seasons for the Arizona Cardinals. Early reports in training camp and preseason have Johnson looking like a new man, but with WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin established as the starters, how much value can Johnson really have? He’s started 19 of 31 professional games and has only 2 TD receptions in that time. While the good news about his training camp and preseason are encouraging, they’ll only make a dent in the fantasy landscape if two things happen: 1st he needs to have Fitzgerald or Boldin go down with an injury, 2nd he needs to show that it will translate onto increased production on the football field. Johnson’s not being drafted at all in most fantasy leagues but keep your eye on him. He could be a decent bench WR if he gets a chance to start.
9. Arnaz Battle: Battle gets listed because he’s somehow managed to impress Mike Nolan’s staff in San Francisco enough to where he’s a legitimate candidate to be a starter for the 49ers. While I’m dubious of a guy with only 8 career receptions, if he beats out either Johnnie Morton or Brandon Lloyd for a starting spot, and proves to be consistent, he could merit some fantasy attention. Currently, he’s not being drafted in most fantasy leagues and could be a nice free agent pickup if one of your guys goes down.
10. Kelley Washington: At one time, Washington, not T.J. Houshmanzadeh was considered to be the guy to replace Peter Warrick in the Bengals starting lineup. But Washington has had consistency problems and now finds himself battling Warrick and rookie Chris Henry for the teams #3 WR spot. He’s only started 5 games the past 2 seasons, but has amassed 53 receptions for 677 yards and a surprising 7 TDs in that time. At 6’3” he makes a good end zone target and if he wins the #3 job could be in for a bit of a bump in his numbers. Basically being undrafted in all leagues, Washington offers up some nice sleeper potential (again, IF he wins the 3rd WRs job in Cincinnati).

Other 3rd year WRs worth mentioning: Taylor Jacobs (Washington), Bethel Johnson (New England), Billy McMullen (Philadelphia), Shaun McDonald (St. Louis), Justin Gage (Chicago), Bobby Wade (Chicago), Doug Gabriel (Oakland), and Talman Gardner (New Orleans).

*-Ronald Curry (Oakland) doesn’t get mentioned here because he was drafted in 2002 in the 7th round as a QB)

Russ Bliss — fantasy football expert and radio host of "The Red Zone with Russ Bliss" on KDUS-AM — went head-to-head with the Line-Up Analyzer last year, and still wishes he had worn a helmet. Russ was so impressed with our predictive analysis engine, he joined the team at FantasyFootballStarters.com. For past "Word to the Winners" articles, please visit our fantasy football advice archive.

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