Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice

The WAY Early Top 10 Fantasy QBs 2007 -- By Russ Bliss

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We’re not even thru the playoffs, and already I’m thinking about next season. In my opinion, it’s never too early to start thinking about the next year. I figure in August, I’ll look back at these fantasy football predictions and have plenty to laugh at in my blog. At the very least I expect to have some fun talking about these way too early rankings on fantasy football message boards throughout the off-season.

1) Peyton Manning: Manning has been at the top of my fantasy football QBs list every year since 2002. You just can’t argue with his consistency. Manning never misses a game. He’s never gotten injured. In 2006, Manning threw for 4,397 yards, 31 TDs, and only 9 INTs. He even pitched in another 4 rushing TDs. Considering that these totals are pretty much what he averages every year (except for the rushing scores), there’s no reason to not have him #1. Usually, there is at least one other QB who stands slightly above Manning at the end of the season fantasy football rankings, but no other QB comes any where close to his consistent top 5 numbers every season. And because there’s usually one guy who does rank higher, every year there will be some other QB that other fantasy football prognosticators will be higher on. That probably changes in 2007 with those others as Manning finally did finish 2006 as the top fantasy QB.

2) Carson Palmer: An absolutely amazing story is that Palmer came back to start the regular season after sustaining what could have been a career threatening knee injury back in January when the Bengals played the Steelers in last season’s playoffs. Originally, Palmer wasn’t supposed to be ready until October of 2006 at the earliest, and in Palmer’s write-up in my original fantasy football predictions I expressed concern about this. Instead, he ended up starting all 16 games for Cincinnati. Despite some inconsistencies in 2006 (4 games with fewer than 200 pass yards, 6 games with 1 or none TD passes), Palmer finished the season with a career high 4,036 passing yards, tossed 28 TDs (second only to Peyton Manning), and only had 13 INTs. 2006 has to be thought of as a huge success for him and it bodes well for 2007. He’s still a young QB and would be the only QB I could see some others listing higher than Peyton Manning in their fantasy football cheat sheets in 2007.

3) Marc Bulger: It was an amazing 2006 for Bulger. The knocks on him coming into 2006 were that this would be his first year not in Mike Martz’s aerial circus, that he couldn’t stay healthy for an entire season, and that he threw too many interceptions. I argued back in August that the interceptions were more a direct cause of Martz’s system and that he would throw fewer in 2006. Mission accomplished. Bulger tossed only 8 interceptions in 2006 (fewest amongst all QBs who have started every game for their team this season). As just stated, Bulger started every game and stayed healthy the entire season. And Bulger also set career highs in passing yards (4,301) and TDs (24). Bulger showed that he can be a top fantasy QB in a different style of offense than Martz’s and possibly, is an even better fantasy QB without Martz. He had some consistency issues though. 8 games with 300 or more passing yards; 9 games with 1 or none TD passes.

4) Drew Brees: I have to admit I was wrong about Brees. In addition to the fantasy football advice I made in my free agent report back in March, I also wrote in my QB write-ups back in July: “Brees is a capable NFL QB, but he’s not a great one. And although it sounds like his shoulder injury has healed up nicely, I’ll withhold taking the leap of faith until I see it in action. I believe his yardage total from last season (3,576, which was a career high) is about as high as it will ever be in any season the rest of his career. I think the 27 TDs he threw in 2004 is a number he’ll never match again. The only 7 INTs in 2004 came back up to his usual amount of 15 in 2005. When you add everything up: new team, new offensive system (not just for Brees, but for everyone else in New Orleans as well), new WR’s to get in synch with, and recovering from a shoulder injury (on an arm that wasn’t blessed with tremendous strength in the first place), and I see a guy who should be lucky to get more than 3,300 yards, 22 TDs, and 15 INTs.” Well, Brees happened to finish 2006 with the most passing yards of any QB (4,424) while throwing 26 TDs and only 11 INTs. Brees had an outstanding 2006 season. No word on whether WR Joe Horn will be back next year, but with youngsters Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, and Terrence Copper, along with Reggie Bush catching passes and he should be a solid fantasy QB again.

5) Donovan McNabb: Providing McNabb is ready for the start of the 2007 season; he should be a solid starter. McNabb tore his ACL in the 10th game of the season, but was having a phenomenal year up to that point. 8 of the 9 games he completed he threw 2 or more TD passes; in 4 of them he tossed for over 300 yards. McNabb is another QB I have to say I was wrong about. In my original write-up, I remarked: “Until he proves it was him developing, and not just finally having a real offensive weapon at WR to throw to, I don’t take much stock in McNabb’s numbers while Terrell Owens was in Philly. His 2006 WR corps (Reggie Brown, Todd Pinkston, Jabar Gaffney, Greg Lewis) looks a lot more comparable to those he had from 2000-2003. Using his per game stats for those years and averaging them out for a full 16 games (as he was having an excellent 2002 before getting injured and missing 6 games and I want to make sure I include what was sure to be his BEST season in those 4 years) and McNabb throws for 3,338 yards, 22 passing TDs, and 12 INTs on average. He also doesn’t take off and run like he used to as his rushing attempts have decreased each season since 2000. McNabb isn’t a guy I want to start every week. Is he a high quality backup that can be part of a rotation as a fantasy starter? Yes. But he needs someone to assert himself at the WR position.” Well, here’s the stat line for those 9 games he started and finished: 2,534 passing yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs, 212 rushing yards and 3 more rushing TDs. McNabb proved me wrong and right now I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt in my fantasy football player rankings for 2007.

6) Matt Hasselbeck: Hasselbeck had a very disappointing 2006. But you have to look at why. First, he missed 4 games this season because of a knee sprain. He was also been without one starting WR (Bobby Engram) for most of the season, and missed another starting WR (Darrell Jackson) the last 4 games of 2006. Then there was also the loss of Shaun Alexander for several weeks. A lot of things added up to a disappointing fantasy season for Hass in 2006 (2,442 passing yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs), but he was still able to have 4 games with 3 or more TD passes. Taking his game averages and if he would have stayed healthy they would have been nearly 3,300 yards and 24 TDs. Considering that things should only get better health wise for the Seahawks in 2007, and Hasselbeck stands an excellent chance of bouncing back strong as a fantasy football QB.

7) Tom Brady: It’s amazing that 3,529 passing yards, 24 TDs, and only 12 INTs is considered a disappointment for a fantasy QB. But in the case of Brady, it was. Brady was a study of highs and lows in 2006. 6 games with fewer than 200 passing yards; 3 of them 140 or fewer; 3 with 300 yards or more; 9 games with 1 or no TD passes; 2 games with 4 TD passes, and 1 game with 4 INTs. It was a roller coaster ride with Brady in 2006. But there’s hope he gets back to better numbers and more consistency in 2007. Hopefully, this year’s rookie Chad Jackson develops, Reche Caldwell starts to deliver consistent performances, Ben Watson stays healthy, and maybe even the Patriots look to add another WR. In terms of fantasy football picks Brady will be a top 10 QB in 2007.

8) Vince Young: Rare do I jump on the bandwagon of what will be a second year QB, but Young is special, combining the QB skills of Donovan McNabb with the rushing ability of Michael Vick. Young assumed the starting role in week 4, and only had 1 game where he didn’t score at least 1 TD either passing or rushing. In his 13 starts, he threw for 2,066 yards, 11 TD passes, 12 INTs (but has had 0 in 6 of those 13), rushed for 528 yards and 7 rushing TDs. He did this with a mediocre offensive line, a very mediocre WR corps, and an inconsistent rushing attack. You just have to believe with a year under his belt and the team getting better around him that Young has a chance to be a very good fantasy QB in 2007. In giving my fantasy football advice regarding Young in his rookie write-up back in May: “Young has all the tools to be a great fantasy football starting QB in another year or two. He gets compared to Michael Vick a lot, but I see him more like Donovan McNabb: a big QB who can make something happen with his legs when he has to, but can whip the football around the field with good accuracy. By 2008, he probably will be amongst the top 10 QBs in almost every fantasy football cheat sheet.” Well, I’m pushing that prediction forward by a year and saying he will be a top 10 fantasy QB in 2007. Young really is that special and just needs a few more weapons around him.

9) Matt Leinart: While Young is special; Leinart is just very good and polished. Plus he has incredible weapons around him. 11 starts as a rookie. 2,488 passing yards in those 11 starts, 11 passing TDs, 11 INTs, 2 rushing TDs, And while, like all rookie QBs thrust into a starting job, he had his ups and downs, he’s shown great promise of what is to come. The only thing that Cardinals offense needs is an offensive line that provides consistent blocking to protect Leinart, and to also allow a running game to develop. When you have weapons like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Bryant Johnson, and Edgerrin James, you have the capability of putting up some great fantasy numbers. If you’re looking at drafting a QB in the middle to late rounds in August, or not overpaying for one in your auction as a fantasy football strategy Leinart should be a solid bet for you in 2007.

10) Ben Roethlisberger: What a weird season Roethlisberger had in 2006. Few players underwent the scrutiny Roethlisberger had to go thru this past season. First, he led the Steelers to a Super Bowl win last season. Then he got in a motorcycle accident in June that broke his jaw along with a couple of other injuries. Then he had an emergency appendectomy a week before the regular season started, and finally suffered a concussion in October. Somehow thru all of this, he managed to only miss one game. In 15 games, he finished with the 8th most passing yards with 3,513, tossed 18 TD passes, rushed for 2 more, however he did throw 23 INTs (most of any QB in the NFL). He only had 4 games with fewer than 200 passing yards and had 7 games with 2 or more TDs. When you realize that everyone just assumed Roethlisberger had a bad fantasy season in 2006, but look at these numbers, you have to believe 2007 will be a much better season for him. He’ll have Santonio Holmes developing in his second season at WR, Hines Ward expected back to health, and the possibility of the new coaching staff implementing a more open style of offense. All this bodes very well for Roethlisberger to make some fantasy football news and possibly becoming a top 10 fantasy QB in 2007.

Russ Bliss is Fantasy Football Starters.com's exclusive fantasy football expert, a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, and for 11 years has been the radio host of "The Red Zone, Talking Fantasy Football and the NFL," in Phoenix, Arizona.

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