Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice

2007 NFL Free Agents: Tight Ends -- By Russ Bliss

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Unlike the crop of 2006 free agent TE’s, the free agent TE class of 2007 has some notable names on it. But let’s face it, there are rarely any really great TE’s in any free agent class as there is such a premium placed on those who have risen to the top. While there are no top guys, there are 3 or 4 who could be starters for you in your 2007 fantasy football leagues.

Randy McMichael: Released by the Miami Dolphins, McMichael signed a 3 year deal with the St. Louis Rams. McMichael gets reunited with Scott Linehan and probably steps in as an immediate starter. His only competition will be Joe Klopfenstein, who has skills, but wasn’t utilized as often as Linehan normally likes to get his TE’s involved in the offense because of the learning curve for rookie TE’s. McMichael knows Linehan’s system and will mentor Klopfenstein. The Rams have a more proven and prolific passing game than Miami and should help McMichael maintain his top 10 status for the 2007 fantasy football rankings.

Daniel Graham: The Denver Broncos surprised many by signing Graham to a lucrative 5 year, 30 million dollar deal. While Graham is a good pass catcher, it is his blocking that is considered the best part of his game and clearly the Broncos wanted someone at the position who could be a blocker since Tony Scheffler is strictly a pass catching TE. This situation should be familiar to Graham as he comes from New England, where the Patriots had Ben Watson as their preferred pass catching TE. Graham’s NFL value is greater than his fantasy football value and while he will have some occasional games where he puts up good numbers, more often than not he won’t. Still, Graham is a top backup TE in most fantasy football leagues.

Eric Johnson: The writing was on the wall for Johnson in San Francisco after the 49ers drafted Vernon Davis in the first round last year. Johnson’s career has been marred by injuries, but when healthy in 2004, he showed the ability to be a solid pass catching TE and a productive fantasy football starter. The New Orleans Saints inked Johnson to a one year contract and that should provide motivation for Johnson as he becomes a NFL free agent again in 2008. Definitely has upside, but considerable risk as well for fantasy football purposes.

Reggie Kelly: Kelly is a prime example of a player who is much more important to his NFL team’s success than a fantasy football team’s success. His 21 receptions for 254 yards and 1 TD in 2006 were his best since 2000 (when he was with the Atlanta Falcons). He turned down better money from other teams and re-signed with Cincinnati only after Carson Palmer called and told him how important he was to the Bengals. That’s great for the Bengals, but means little for your fantasy football team.

David Martin: The Miami Dolphins signed Martin and subsequently released Randy McMichael. We’ve been hearing for the past few years how the Green Bay Packers were hoping to get Martin more involved, but it never evolved. Martin has decent abilities, but lacks the talent and speed to be a true fantasy football starter.

Visanthe Shiancoe: After spending the last 4 seasons in the shadow of Jeremy Shockey in New York, Shiancoe signed a 7 year deal with the Minnesota Vikings. Shiancoe was never used much as a receiver in New York, so it’s unknown if he can excel if given the opportunity. Vikings coach Brad Childress used his TE’s a lot when he was the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia and was clearly disappointed with how the position fared in his first season with the Vikings. Shiancoe is an intriguing candidate as a 2007 fantasy football sleeper and deserves to be watched closely during the NFL mini-camps.

Marcus Pollard: Pollard signed with the Seattle Seahawks and that may end any chance of the team re-signing Jerramy Stevens. After a slew of productive seasons with the Indianapolis Colts through 2004, and even a pretty good season with the Detroit Lions in 2005, Pollard’s numbers went into the toilet in 2006. To be fair, it was more the product of an offensive system that rarely uses the TE position than it was an indictment of Pollard’s skills. Unfortunately, Pollard is 35 years old and while he may still have a little something left, it may not be enough to deserve much attention in fantasy football leagues even though the Seahawks historically have liked throwing to their TE’s.

Tony Stewart: Stewart left the Cincinnati Bengals and signed a 2 year deal with the Oakland Raiders. While not much of a receiving threat (he’s only caught 28 passes the last 3 years), he is a strong blocker and figures to help the Raiders in that capacity.

Kyle Brady: Going into his 13th season, Brady signed with the New England Patriots to replace Daniel Graham as a blocking TE. The Patriots already have two pass catching TE’s in Ben Watson and Dave Thomas, so Brady isn’t much of a threat to do more than catch one or two TD passes Tom Brady throws to someone obscure when the team is at an opponent’s one yard line.

Will Heller: Heller re-signed with the Seattle Seahawks. However the team is still looking to upgrade the position either by re-signing unrestricted free agent Jerramy Stevens or in the 2007 NFL draft, so Heller is highly unlikely to have any type of significant 2007 fantasy football projections come August.

Fred Wakefield: Wakefield has played DE, OL, and TE in his 6 year NFL career while in Arizona. He only has 2 career receptions so his chances for fantasy greatness are next to none. It’s possible that his signing by the Oakland Raiders will lead to him going back to DE or as a backup along the offensive line.

As for the remaining free agents at the TE position, there are a couple with promise, but for the most part the list is littered with mediocre guys who have either never lived up to hype (Doug Jolley), are on the downside of their career (Ernie Conwell), or are just plain old run-of-the-mill TE’s who don’t make any impact in fantasy football leagues. First we’ll look at the unrestricted free agents (guys who are able to sign anywhere with no compensation needed to go back to their 2006 team).

Jerramy Stevens: Stevens has a lot of natural talent, and after McMichael and Graham, he’s clearly the best free agent TE out there, but he’s got a history of troubles both legal and personal. That’s precisely why the Seahawks haven’t made much effort to re-sign him and why no one else has either. There’s no denying he has great size and good pass catching ability, but the problems that have plagued him and his attitude appear to have soured potential suitors. His latest arrest for DUI and marijuana possession in March could sink his 2007 fantasy football projections altogether.

Jermaine Wiggins: A lot was expected of Wiggins in 2006 when Brad Childress came aboard. Wiggins had seasons with 71 and 69 receptions in 2004 and 2005, but only managed to snare 46 in 2006. Disenchanted, the Vikings released him and now Wiggins is actively searching for a new team. While he has had good receiving numbers in the past, they’ve never been great numbers and would need to go to a team that really utilizes the position for him to be more than just a borderline starter for fantasy football purposes.

Donald Lee: Lee has some pass catching talent, but has never realized it to its fullest. Only going into his 5th NFL season, there is enough there for a team to take a chance on him and see if he can be coached up. His blocking is okay, but for those of us focused on his potential fantasy football projections, we’re more concerned about where he ends up and whether he’ll get a chance to compete for a starting job.

Ernie Conwell: Conwell was never an elite TE even during his prime. Just another mediocre producer, and one with a potential chronic knee problem who will be 35 by the beginning of the 2007 season, Conwell isn’t likely to find his way onto the field much, let alone any of the 2007 fantasy football cheat sheets for tight ends.

Aaron Shea: After signing a 3 year deal with the San Diego Chargers in 2006 to be Antonio Gates backup, Shea was released by the team after spending the season on IR. Shea has decent skills, but also has a history of injury problems and at the age of 30, he just doesn’t seem likely to find himself with a starting job. A backup TE usually has no fantasy football value.

Adam Bergen: Only entering his 3rd NFL season, Bergen likely never would have been released by the Arizona Cardinals if not for a knee injury he suffered in December. It’s not that Bergen was a pass catching demon (43 receptions for 381 yards in his two seasons), but he is a young TE with decent enough skills. Depending on how his rehab goes will show if he signs with anyone before the 2007 NFL training camps start.

Doug Jolley: A career underachiever and disinterested blocker, Jolley’s stock has dropped significantly over the last few years. He looked ready to emerge with the Raiders, was traded to the Jets in 2005 for a first round pick, fell out of favor there and was traded to Tampa Bay just before the start of the 2006 season, and now finds himself available for any team to sign and no offers coming in. There has to be something we don’t know here for Jolley to have sunk to this level after being so coveted only 2 years ago. It’ll be interesting to see where he ends up signing and what is said about him as we approach the 2007 NFL season.

Erron Kinney: A fairly productive TE in Tennessee early in his career, Kinney suffered a knee injury back in December of 2005 and hasn’t played a regular season game since. He underwent the “cure or kill” microfracture surgery November of 2006 and appears unlikely to play in 2007, if ever again.

Other unrestricted free agents who have almost no chance of making any fantasy football impact but are available, along with their 2006 team) are: Gabe Reid (Bears); Justin Snow (Colts); Brett Pierce (Cowboys); Ryan Hannam (Cowboys) Brian Jones (Jaguars); Dave Moore (Buccaneers); Christian Fauria (Redskins) Todd Yoder (Redskins); Brian Kozlowski (Redskins); Ryan Krause (Chargers)

Now let’s look at a few restricted free agents. While unlikely to go to a new team because of the potential cost, there are a couple who bear noting.

Michael Gaines: There’s always been talk of Gaines being ready to step up and produce in Carolina, but it has yet to happen. The Panthers tendered him an offer that would cost another team a second round pick if they signed him so it’s unlikely Gaines goes anywhere in 2007.

Richard Owens: Owens is a better blocker than receiver and also plays FB sometimes in Minnesota. He has no fantasy value even if he ends up with another team (which is unlikely).

Ben Hartsock: Hartsock didn’t make it as a TE with Indianapolis Colts and found himself picked up by the Tennessee Titans when the Colts waived him during the 2006 season. Considering the other solid pass catching options the Titans have at the position, it’s likely Hartsock’s only role is that of a blocker.

Other restricted free agents who have almost no chance of making any fantasy football impact but are still unsigned, along with the 2006 teams who hold their rights) are: Sean Ryan (Jets); Richard Owens (Vikings); Aaron Walker (Rams); Dwayne Blakley (Falcons)

Russ Bliss is Fantasy Football Starters.com's exclusive fantasy football expert, a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, and for 11 years has been the radio host of "The Red Zone, Talking Fantasy Football and the NFL," in Phoenix, Arizona.

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