FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT DAY DECISIONS 2012 (by Dan Grogan 8/7/12)


Although you never know how your fantasy football draft is going to unfold and which players will be available when your pick comes up, it never hurts to get your thoughts in line regarding how you're going to view certain players. The guys I'm talking about here are those who fall into the "gray area" on draft day. They're interesting, but they're not slam-dunk choices.

Draft Day Decisions is a series of articles addressing the primary fantasy positions - quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.


Brandon Lloyd, New England

Assessing Lloyd's value for the upcoming season is truly a math problem. You know Wes Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are going to get their share of Tom Brady's TD passes and aerial yardage. But the question is how much is really going to be left over for Lloyd to claim? Last year, Welker and the tight ends accounted for 65% of the TD catches and 72% of the receiving yardage. And remember, there are a few other guys here like Jabar Gaffney and Deion Branch who can play too. It's tough for me to see Lloyd posting dominating numbers in this offense.

I think Lloyd can deliver 6-7 scores and upwards of 1000 yards and that would give him the value of a very late WR2 fantasy player or even a WR3. The opinions on Lloyd vary greatly and that's why his ADP numbers range from having him as a receiver in the mid-teens all the way down to a level where late WR3s and early WR4s go.


Dez Bryant, Dallas

I think the variability of Bryant's ADP probably has more to do with his penchant for off-the-field trouble than anything. Some early drafters view him as a third round pick while others wouldn't touch him until the 5^th. The recent problems involving his mother followed by comments from Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones that, if necessary, the team will move on without him highlight the concerns.

I think the potential upside for Bryant to deliver solid WR2 value statistics is there. Sure, there are heavy fantasy hitters like Miles Austin and Jason Witten who will get their numbers, but QB Tony Romo is capable of a 4000+ yards season and 27-30 TDs so there's plenty to go around. Bryant appears capable of a 1000-1100 yard season and 8-10 scores which would be very good especially if you can get him as a later WR2 selection.


Demaryius Thomas, Denver

Thomas' stock has been creeping up fantasy football player rankings in recent weeks to where he's regarded as a mid-level WR2 pick. There's no doubt he'll wow people with some big plays and clutch catches this season, but I question whether he can deliver the consistency of a WR2. You know Eric Decker will be a strong factor here and some think he'll be the go-to receiver for Peyton Manning. Ex-Manning mate Brandon Stokley will get some time as will Andre Caldwell. There's an excellent chance we'll see more from Denver's tight ends this season since they signed two guys that can catch - Jacob Tamme (another former teammate of Manning's) and Joel Dreessen.

Here's my fantasy football draft strategy regarding Thomas. If my WR1 selection is strong, I'll be more open to consider him as a late WR2 draftee. However, if I'm a little suspect at WR, I'll probably opt for someone who I have more confidence in and who offers less risk.
 

Robert Meachem, San Diego

Prior to signing with San Diego this off-season, Meachem's MO has been defined by one word - "potential." He has never had more than 45 receptions in a season and his best yardage output was 722 back in 2009 - the same year that he had his career high TD total (9). But it hasn't been all his fault. After a slow start to his career (he missed his rookie season in 2009 because of a knee injury and played sparingly in season two making just 12 catches), Meachem found himself on a team loaded with high quality receivers making it difficult to standout.

The question now is whether he can assume that "go-to receiver" role with the Chargers. Aside from TE Antonio Gates, there's not a lot of guaranteed quality here. Malcolm Floyd, Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown are intriguing, but largely unproven fantasy players. So, the opportunity for Meachem is unquestionably there. If he can quickly get in synch with QB Philip Rivers, who's capable of a 27-30 TD season with 4500 yards, Meachem could deliver 7-8 scores and 1000-1100 yards.

There are a few ADPs showing Meachem as a WR2 draftee, but given the circumstances, I wouldn't make that reach. I agree most of the ADPs that have him down among the WR3s; a guy that is a value-pick at around the 30^th WR off the board.
 

Percy Harvin, Minnesota

Harvin is a very intriguing fantasy receiver. There are a number of signs pointing to a very strong receiving season and you can reap the bonus of at least another 30-40 more points from his rushing capability.

Harvin had one of those "what if?" seasons in 2011. He operated with a struggling QB Donovan McNabb for the first six games catching just 25 passes for 261 yards and failing to score. Rookie QB Christian Ponder was getting his feet wet over the next three weeks and Harvin managed only 12 receptions for 125 yards during this stretch. Finally, with Ponder starting to get comfortable, Harvin began to deliver for fantasy owners. Over the last seven games he caught six TD passes and racked up 441 yards on 50 catches. You have to wonder what could have happened had Harvin had the consistent play at QB all season.

Opinions vary on where Harvin should go in fantasy drafts. Some projections have him as a top 10 WR pick. That's not a stretch.  He finished last season as the 11^th rated receiver averaging just over 11 points per game - and that was despite the problems at QB. Other forecasts show him as a mid-to late WR2. Even though I agree with those making a bold statistical prediction for Harvin, I'm in the second camp. I just don't think you need to take him that high. Despite the evidence to the contrary, many drafters won't value him as a WR1 so he should be available as a WR2. There's little chance, however, he'll slip past this point.


See Dan's Draft Day Decisions: Running Backs (part 1)

See Dan's Draft Day Decisions: Running Backs (part 2)