by Russ Bliss (11/9/11)


We've gotten thru 9 weeks of the season and every team has played at least 8 games. While anything is possible, you pretty much get a fairly good gauge on each team's defense by this point and how they'll do the rest of the season. Are they a good matchup for your RB's? Are they a bad matchup for your RB's?

Knowing this information now can help you make the right decisions when it comes to evaluating trades and potential free agent pickups for those fantasy playoff weeks. Especially if you think you are going to make your fantasy playoffs.

It doesn't matter if you get in as the top seed, or the bottom seed, in head to head style leagues, each week is elimination and the team that is best prepared with players who have the best matchups, is usually going to win.

Weeks 14-16 are usually the 3 playoff weeks in standard head to head leagues and I use that as the basis. You'll also see included the weeks 13 and 17 matchups off the side, and I include those for those who have playoffs that start earlier, or leagues that go all the way thru to week 17. But for the purposes of the rankings below, I use weeks 14-16, and total up the amount of fantasy points allowed per game for each of the 3 opponents those weeks. I have also included the defensive rankings for each opponent, but I think the total amount of points allowed is a little more important than the rankings, since there can be less than a single point that separates many teams in their ranked position. For example, currently there are 6 teams who give up between 13.00-13.99 rushing fantasy points per game. They represent rushing defenses ranked 4-9. A difference of 5 ranking spots due to a difference of less than a single rushing point. So points are more desirable in my opinion.  

Looking at the graph below, you'll notice that the Houston Texans have the most favorable rushing matchup's weeks 14-16 based on total rushing fantasy points allowed by their opponents. This bodes well for the owner of Arian Foster, and makes it even more important for that fantasy owner to have Ben Tate as the handcuff going into his playoffs in case of a Foster injury. If you own Arian Foster and you don't have Ben Tate, make a trade for Tate! If you don't have Arian Foster, maybe you try to pry him away from the owner who does. Be careful when evaluating certain RB's though as you'll notice both Chicago's Matt Forte and Buffalo's Fred Jackson have very poor rushing matchups in weeks 14-16. But both of those RB's are extremely accomplished receivers as well. When you look at the fantasy points allowed thru the air to opponents in weeks 14-16, you'll see the Bears and Bills both have great matchups those 3 weeks. That increases the likelihood of Forte and Jackson still providing excellent fantasy points those weeks. So don't sell short on proven pass catching RB's based just on their rushing matchups; consider their receiving matchups as well.

By examining this list, you'll be able to figure out who you should be trading for, and who you should be avoiding. And remember, this list uses the simple generic formula of 1 point per every 10 rushing yards allowed and 6 points for every rushing TD allowed divided by the number of games each defense has played.
 

Overall	Rushing matchups	14	15	16	Totals		13	17
1	Houston Texans
	opponent	CIN	CAR	IND			ATL	TEN
	FP/PG	12.95	21.58	21.94	56.47		14.15	15.68
	Rank	3	31	32	66		10	17
2	Dallas Cowboys
	opponent	NYG	TB	PHI			ARI	NYG
	FP/PG	19.46	19.24	17.65	56.35		20.03	19.46
	Rank	26	25	21	72		29	26
3	Baltimore Ravens
	opponent	IND	SD	CLE			CLE	CIN
	FP/PG	21.94	15	18.9	55.84		18.9	12.95
	Rank	32	13	23	68		23	3
4	New York Jets
	opponent	KC	PHI	NYG			WAS	MIA
	FP/PG	18.03	17.65	19.46	55.14		16.76	13.31
	Rank	22	21	26	69		20	7
5	Green Bay Packers
	opponent	OAK	KC	CHI			NYG	DET
	FP/PG	20.71	18.03	15.5	54.24		19.46	16.01
	Rank	30	22	15	67		26	18
6	Tennessee Titans
	opponent	NO	IND	JAX			BUF	HOU
	FP/PG	16.63	21.94	15.5	54.07		19.58	13.14
	Rank	19	32	15	66		27	5
7	Atlanta Falcons
	opponent	CAR	JAX	NO			HOU	TB
	FP/PG	21.58	15.5	16.63	53.71		13.14	19.24
	Rank	31	15	19	65		5	25
8	Cincinnati Bengals
	opponent	HOU	STL	ARI			PIT	BAL
	FP/PG	13.14	19.86	20.03	53.03		13.56	10.93
	Rank	5	28	29	62		8	2
9	Kansas City Chiefs
	opponent	NYJ	GB	OAK			CHI	DEN
	FP/PG	19.05	13	20.71	52.76		15.5	15.3
	Rank	24	4	30	58		15	14
10	Miami Dolphins
	opponent	PHI	BUF	NE			OAK	NYJ
	FP/PG	17.65	19.58	14.73	51.96		20.71	19.05
	Rank	21	27	11	59		30	24
11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	opponent	JAX	DAL	CAR			CAR	ATL
	FP/PG	15.5	13.99	21.58	51.07		21.58	14.15
	Rank	15	9	31	55		31	10
12	Denver Broncos
	opponent	CHI	NE	BUF			MIN	KC
	FP/PG	15.5	14.73	19.58	49.81		13.19	18.03
	Rank	15	11	27	53		6	22
13	New York Giants
	opponent	DAL	WAS	NYJ			GB	DAL
	FP/PG	13.99	16.76	19.05	49.8		13	13.99
	Rank	9	20	24	53		4	9
14	Minnesota Vikings
	opponent	DET	NO	WAS			DEN	CHI
	FP/PG	16.01	16.63	16.76	49.4		15.3	15.5
	Rank	18	19	20	57		14	15
15	Jacksonville Jaguars
	opponent	TB	ATL	TEN			SD	IND
	FP/PG	19.24	14.15	15.68	49.07		15	21.94
	Rank	25	10	17	52		13	32
16	Detroit Lions
	opponent	MIN	OAK	SD			NO	GB
	FP/PG	13.19	20.71	15	48.9		16.63	13
	Rank	6	30	13	49		19	4
17	San Francisco 49ers
	opponent	ARI	PIT	SEA			STL	STL
	FP/PG	20.03	13.56	14.79	48.38		19.86	19.86
	Rank	29	8	12	49		28	28
18	Washington Redskins
	opponent	NE	NYG	MIN			NYJ	PHI
	FP/PG	14.73	19.46	13.19	47.38		19.05	17.65
	Rank	11	26	6	43		24	21
19	Oakland Raiders
	opponent	GB	DET	KC			MIA	SD
	FP/PG	13	16.01	18.03	47.04		13.31	15
	Rank	4	18	22	44		7	13
20	Carolina Panthers
	opponent	ATL	HOU	TB			TB	NO
	FP/PG	14.15	13.14	19.24	46.53		19.24	16.63
	Rank	10	5	25	40		25	19
21	San Diego Chargers
	opponent	BUF	BAL	DET			JAX	OAK
	FP/PG	19.58	10.93	16.01	46.52		15.5	20.71
	Rank	27	2	18	47		15	30
22	Philadelphia Eagles
	opponent	MIA	NYJ	DAL			SEA	WAS
	FP/PG	13.31	19.05	13.99	46.35		14.79	16.76
	Rank	7	24	9	40		12	20
23	Pittsburgh Steelers
	opponent	CLE	SF	STL			CIN	CLE
	FP/PG	18.9	7.08	19.86	45.84		12.95	18.9
	Rank	23	1	28	52		3	23
24	New England Patriots
	opponent	WAS	DEN	MIA			IND	BUF
	FP/PG	16.76	15.3	13.31	45.37		21.94	19.58
	Rank	20	14	7	41		32	27
25	Cleveland Browns
	opponent	PIT	ARI	BAL			BAL	PIT
	FP/PG	13.56	20.03	10.93	44.52		10.93	13.56
	Rank	8	29	2	39		2	8
26	Buffalo Bills
	opponent	SD	MIA	DEN			TEN	NE
	FP/PG	15	13.31	15.3	43.61		15.68	14.73
	Rank	13	7	14	34		17	11
27	Chicago Bears
	opponent	DEN	SEA	GB			KC	MIN
	FP/PG	15.3	14.79	13	43.09		18.03	13.19
	Rank	14	12	4	30		22	6
28	New Orleans Saints
	opponent	TEN	MIN	ATL			DET	CAR
	FP/PG	15.68	13.19	14.15	43.02		16.01	21.58
	Rank	17	6	10	33		18	31
29	Seattle Seahawks
	opponent	STL	CHI	SF			PHI	ARI
	FP/PG	19.86	15.5	7.08	42.44		17.65	20.03
	Rank	28	15	1	44		21	29
30	St. Louis Rams
	opponent	SEA	CIN	PIT			SF	SF
	FP/PG	14.79	12.95	13.56	41.3		7.08	7.08
	Rank	12	3	8	23		1	1
31	Indianapolis Colts
	opponent	BAL	TEN	HOU			NE	JAX
	FP/PG	10.93	15.68	13.14	39.75		14.73	15.5
	Rank	2	17	5	24		11	15
32	Arizona Cardinals
	opponent	SF	CLE	CIN			DAL	SEA
	FP/PG	7.08	18.9	12.95	38.93		13.99	14.79
	Rank	1	23	3	27		9	12