by Russ Bliss (11/9/11)


We've gotten thru 9 weeks of the season and every team has played at least 8 games. While anything is possible, you pretty much get a fairly good gauge on each team's defense by this point and how they'll do the rest of the season. Are they a good matchup for your QB's, WR's, and TE's? Are they a bad matchup?

Knowing this information now can help you make the right decisions when it comes to evaluating trades and potential free agent pickups for those fantasy playoff weeks. Especially if you think you are going to make your fantasy playoffs.

It doesn't matter if you get in as the top seed, or the bottom seed, in head to head style leagues, each week is elimination and the team that is best prepared with players who have the best matchups, is usually going to win.

Weeks 14-16 are usually the 3 playoff weeks in standard head to head leagues and I use that as the basis. You'll also see included the weeks 13 and 17 matchups off the side, and I include those for those who have playoffs that start earlier, or leagues that go all the way thru to week 17. But for the purposes of the rankings below, I use weeks 14-16, and total up the amount of fantasy points allowed per game for each of the 3 opponents those weeks. I have also included the defensive rankings for each opponent, but I think the total amount of points allowed is a little more important than the rankings, since there can be less than a single point that separates many teams in their ranked position. For example, currently there are 6 teams who give up between 32.81-33.89 receiving fantasy points per game. They represent receiving defenses ranked 12-17. A difference of 5 ranking spots due to a difference of barely a single receiving point. So points are more desirable in my opinion.

Looking at the graph below, you'll notice that the Chicago Bears have the best fantasy matchups thru the air weeks 14-16. Now I'm not saying you trade Michael Vick or Phillip Rivers for Jay Cutler because they have much weaker matchups those weeks, but what you can do is get Jay Cutler via trade with the owner who has him to be your backup, or one of 2 QB's you use in a rotation (if you lack a high quality QB1) and have him ready in case you need him for those games.

Last year when I published this type of fantasy playoffs preparation article, I made mention of how Josh Freeman and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a very favorable playoff schedule and how he was widely regarded thru 9 weeks as being a mediocre fantasy backup who could actually be found on waiver wires in some leagues. Well, in those 3 weeks, Freeman put up solid fantasy numbers culminating in a 5 TD week 16 performance that helped those who didn't have a stud QB win their fantasy championships.

Does it play out like that every year? No. But the point is that it can, and you increased your chances that it can because you've done good quality preparation.

Fantasy Football is about preparation and luck. And good prep puts you in the best position to have good luck. Bad luck will stomp all your good prep into the ground, but that's why there are no sure things in fantasy. But if you've done good prep, and you still lose, at least you know it wasn't because you slacked off.

By examining this list, you'll be able to figure out who you should be trading for, and who you should be avoiding. And remember, this list uses the simple generic formula of 1 point per every 10 receiving yards allowed and 6 points for every rushing TD allowed divided by the number of games each defense has played.
 

Overall	Receiving matchups	14	15	16	Totals		13	17
1	Chicago Bears
	opponent	DEN	SEA	GB			KC	MIN
	FP/PG	40.34	32.81	43.56	116.71		37.06	40.03
	Rank	30	12	32	74		25	29
2	Washington Redskins
	opponent	NE	NYG	MIN			NYJ	PHI
	FP/PG	43.06	33.29	40.03	116.38		24.59	33.16
	Rank	31	16	29	76		2	14
3	Denver Broncos
	opponent	CHI	NE	BUF			MIN	KC
	FP/PG	36.15	43.06	35.4	114.61		40.03	37.06
	Rank	23	31	20	74		29	25
4	Miami Dolphins
	opponent	PHI	BUF	NE			OAK	NYJ
	FP/PG	33.16	35.4	43.06	111.62		36.49	24.59
	Rank	14	20	31	65		24	2
5	Buffalo Bills
	opponent	SD	MIA	DEN			TEN	NE
	FP/PG	31.58	38.35	40.34	110.27		34.49	43.06
	Rank	11	27	30	68		18	31
6	Green Bay Packers
	opponent	OAK	KC	CHI			NYG	DET
	FP/PG	36.49	37.06	36.15	109.7		33.29	28.06
	Rank	24	25	23	72		16	6
7	Oakland Raiders
	opponent	GB	DET	KC			MIA	SD
	FP/PG	43.56	28.06	37.06	108.68		38.35	31.58
	Rank	32	6	25	63		27	11
8	New England Patriots
	opponent	WAS	DEN	MIA			IND	BUF
	FP/PG	29.66	40.34	38.35	108.35		38.97	35.4
	Rank	9	30	27	66		28	20
9	Detroit Lions
	opponent	MIN	OAK	SD			NO	GB
	FP/PG	40.03	36.49	31.58	108.1		33.89	43.56
	Rank	29	24	11	64		17	32
10	New Orleans Saints
	opponent	TEN	MIN	ATL			DET	CAR
	FP/PG	34.49	40.03	33.24	107.76		28.06	31.19
	Rank	18	29	15	62		6	10
11	Seattle Seahawks
	opponent	STL	CHI	SF			PHI	ARI
	FP/PG	35.19	36.15	35.55	106.89		33.16	35.83
	Rank	19	23	21	63		14	22
12	Jacksonville Jaguars
	opponent	TB	ATL	TEN			SD	IND
	FP/PG	37.45	33.24	34.49	105.18		31.58	38.97
	Rank	26	15	18	59		11	28
13	Kansas City Chiefs
	opponent	NYJ	GB	OAK			CHI	DEN
	FP/PG	24.59	43.56	36.49	104.64		36.15	40.34
	Rank	2	32	24	58		23	30
14	Dallas Cowboys
	opponent	NYG	TB	PHI			ARI	NYG
	FP/PG	33.29	37.45	33.16	103.9		35.83	33.29
	Rank	16	26	14	56		22	16
15	New York Jets
	opponent	KC	PHI	NYG			WAS	MIA
	FP/PG	37.06	33.16	33.29	103.51		29.66	38.35
	Rank	25	14	16	55		9	27
16	Tennessee Titans
	opponent	NO	IND	JAX			BUF	HOU
	FP/PG	33.89	38.97	29.44	102.3		35.4	26.63
	Rank	17	28	8	53		20	4
17	Houston Texans
	opponent	CIN	CAR	IND			ATL	TEN
	FP/PG	29.3	31.19	38.97	99.46		33.24	34.49
	Rank	7	10	28	45		15	18
18	Cincinnati Bengals
	opponent	HOU	STL	ARI			PIT	BAL
	FP/PG	26.63	35.19	35.83	97.65		27.5	25.99
	Rank	4	19	22	45		5	3
19	Carolina Panthers
	opponent	ATL	HOU	TB			TB	NO
	FP/PG	33.24	26.63	37.45	97.32		37.45	33.89
	Rank	15	4	26	45		26	17
20	San Francisco 49ers
	opponent	ARI	PIT	SEA			STL	STL
	FP/PG	35.83	27.5	32.81	96.14		35.19	35.19
	Rank	22	5	12	39		19	19
21	Philadelphia Eagles
	opponent	MIA	NYJ	DAL			SEA	WAS
	FP/PG	38.35	24.59	33.11	96.05		32.81	29.66
	Rank	27	2	13	42		12	9
22	Pittsburgh Steelers
	opponent	CLE	SF	STL			CIN	CLE
	FP/PG	24.49	35.55	35.19	95.23		29.3	24.49
	Rank	1	21	19	41		7	1
23	Baltimore Ravens
	opponent	IND	SD	CLE			CLE	CIN
	FP/PG	38.97	31.58	24.49	95.04		24.49	29.3
	Rank	28	11	1	40		1	7
24	Atlanta Falcons
	opponent	CAR	JAX	NO			HOU	TB
	FP/PG	31.19	29.44	33.89	94.52		26.63	37.45
	Rank	10	8	17	35		4	26
25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	opponent	JAX	DAL	CAR			CAR	ATL
	FP/PG	29.44	33.11	31.19	93.74		31.19	33.24
	Rank	8	13	10	31		10	15
26	Minnesota Vikings
	opponent	DET	NO	WAS			DEN	CHI
	FP/PG	28.06	33.89	29.66	91.61		40.34	36.15
	Rank	6	17	9	32		30	23
27	St. Louis Rams
	opponent	SEA	CIN	PIT			SF	SF
	FP/PG	32.81	29.3	27.5	89.61		35.55	35.55
	Rank	12	7	5	24		21	21
28	San Diego Chargers
	opponent	BUF	BAL	DET			JAX	OAK
	FP/PG	35.4	25.99	28.06	89.45		29.44	36.49
	Rank	20	3	6	29		8	24
29	Arizona Cardinals
	opponent	SF	CLE	CIN			DAL	SEA
	FP/PG	35.55	24.49	29.3	89.34		33.11	32.81
	Rank	21	1	7	29		13	12
30	Cleveland Browns
	opponent	PIT	ARI	BAL			BAL	PIT
	FP/PG	27.5	35.83	25.99	89.32		25.99	27.5
	Rank	5	22	3	30		3	5
31	New York Giants
	opponent	DAL	WAS	NYJ			GB	DAL
	FP/PG	33.11	29.66	24.59	87.36		43.56	33.11
	Rank	13	9	2	24		32	13
32	Indianapolis Colts
	opponent	BAL	TEN	HOU			NE	JAX
	FP/PG	25.99	34.49	26.63	87.11		43.06	29.44
	Rank	3	18	4	25		31	8