Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice from the Experts

2006 Rookie Wide Receivers -- By Russ Bliss

Rookie WR’s rarely make an immediate impact as fantasy football starters. In most re-draft style fantasy football leagues, rookie WR’s are usually taken higher than they should be, and produce less than hoped for. The 2006 NFL Draft class is unlikely to buck this trend, but there could be a few exceptions. The top 2 are easily the class of this position, and both have a legitimate chance to produce decent numbers as rookies. There are a couple of others who could surprise because of the situations they are in, but that’s about it. In dynasty style fantasy football leagues, there are some several others who might have value in time. But the historical fact is that most of these guys will never amount to much in the NFL. And that means they won’t provide much fantasy football help even in the long run.

 

2006 Impact Ranking:	Dynasty Values:
1) Santonio Holmes	1) Chad Jackson
2) Chad Jackson	2) Santonio Holmes
3) Travis Wilson	3) Demetrius Williams
4) Greg Jennings	4) Sinorice Moss
5) Jason Avant	5) Travis Wilson
6) Sinorice Moss	6) Jason Avant
7) Derek Hagan	7) Maurice Stovall
8) Demetrius Williams	8) Derek Hagan
9) Maurice Stovall	9) Greg Jennings
10) Michael Robinson	10) Brandon Marshall
11) Brandon Williams	11) Jeff Webb
12) Brandon Marshall	12) Mike Hass
13) Jonathan Orr	13) Michael Robinson
14) Jeff Webb	14) Brad Smith
15) Mike Hass	15) Todd Watkins
16) Skyler Green	16) Marques Colston
17) Brad Smith	17) David Anderson
18) Domenik Hixon	18) Delanie Walker
19) Delanie Walker	19) Jonathan Orr
20) Adam Jennings	20) Domenik Hixon
21) David Anderson	21) Bennie Brazell
22) Todd Watkins	22) Skyler Green
23) Marques Colston	23) Brandon Williams
24) Cory Rodgers	24) Devin Aromashodu
25) Devin Aromashodu	25) Adam Jennings
26) Jeremy Bloom	26) Cory Rodgers
27) Marques Hagans	27) Marques Hagans
28) Bennie Brazell	28) Jeremy Bloom
29) Ethan Kilmer	29) Ben Obomano
30) Ben Obomano	30) Ethan Kilmer
31) Kevin McMahan	31) Kevin McMahan
32) Will Blackmon	32) Will Blackmon

Rookie Rundown (in order drafted)

Santonio Holmes, Round 1, Pittsburgh Steelers: Holmes lacks ideal size, but that’s about it. He has good hands, runs great routes, is very fast, and plays up to his ego. Despite playing in a conservative college offense, Holmes averaged a TD reception for every 5-6 catches over his 3 year career at Ohio State.
2006 outlook: Will be brought along slowly by the Steelers, probably lining up as the teams #3 WR. If he really tries though, he could push Cedric Wilson for a starting job as the #2 opposite Hines Ward. His fantasy football projections for 2006 aren’t great as a #3, but if he wins a starting job, he could be a decent bench WR.
Beyond 2006: Holmes lack of ideal size could prevent him from ever being a dominant #1 fantasy football WR. But he has a lot of talent and in time should be a valuable commodity and be projected as a #2 or #3 WR in fantasy football rankings.

Chad Jackson, Round 2, New England Patriots: Possesses enough size and strength to be dominant at the NFL level. Is fearless going over the middle. Despite having excellent speed, wasn’t used much as a vertical threat in college. Needs to improve his route running and make sure he looks the ball into his hands before turning and running.
2006 outlook: Will compete with the brittle Reche Caldwell for the #2 WR spot in New England. Jackson has more upside than Caldwell and even if he doesn’t win the job, he’s likely to get starts anyway as Caldwell has historically had a problem staying healthy. If Jackson develops a good rapport with Tom Brady, he certainly is worth having on fantasy football rosters as a bench guy.
Beyond 2006: Should end up being a staple in the Patriots offense for years to come. What will limit Jackson’s future fantasy football projections is the way the Patriots offense spreads the ball around to so many different WR’s. That might change if Jackson can his immense talent coached into production on the field. Is definitely worth having in dynasty style fantasy football leagues and could emerge eventually as a solid #1 or #2 fantasy football WR.

Sinorice Moss, Round 2, New York Giants: The younger brother of Redskins WR Santana Moss, Sinorice will need a lot of time before he approaches his older brother’s production. Sinorice is only 5’8” and it’s rare a WR that size ever develops into a big time NFL WR. Extremely fast and elusive, Moss is an explosive threat in the open field.
2006 outlook: The Giants are hopeful that Moss can be their #3 WR, lining up in the slot where he won’t have to worry about a DB lining right up on him. The Giants have been looking for a 3rd WR to throw the ball to, but it’s unknown if they’ve found their guy in Moss. Probably has very little immediate fantasy football value.
Beyond 2006: It’s hoped that Moss will eventually take over as the Giants #2 WR when Amani Toomer is no longer able to hold that position. But because of his size, Moss has a hard time though beating press coverage off the line of scrimmage and may end up being best suited as a slot WR for his career. Moss’s fantasy football ranking for the future is probably never going to be more than as a #3 WR who can spot fill in a lineup as a fantasy football starter.

Greg Jennings, Round 2, Green Bay Packers: Jennings has been outstanding at Western Michigan, registering 3 consecutive 1,000+ yd, 10+ TD seasons. Coming from a small school, there are questions about how he’ll do when facing top competition, but has excelled in games against big programs in college as well. Not particularly big, fast, or strong, Jennings is tough, runs excellent routes and has solid ball skills.
2006 outlook: Jennings will compete with fellow rookie Cory Rodgers for a spot in the rotation of the Packers WR corps. Donald Driver is the only one guaranteed a starting job, so if Jennings impresses (his competition is oft-injured Robert Ferguson, Rod Gardner, Marc Boerigter, and Rodgers) he could find himself getting a lot more playing time than a rookie WR would expect. Realistically though, it’s a tough hill for him to climb as it’s a big step up in competition.
Beyond 2006: Jennings lack of ideal size likely means he’ll never be a true #1 NFL or fantasy WR. And it remains to be seen whether the Packers offense will be so pass oriented in the future when Brett Favre eventually retires. The long term fantasy football predictions for Jennings are likely that he could become a serviceable fantasy football starter as a #2 WR. But he could also never develop as more than a fantasy bench player.

Travis Wilson, Round 3, Cleveland Browns: Wilson is a big, strong WR who will go up and fight for the catch. Not slow, but not fast either, Wilson runs strong after the catch and is a willing blocker on running plays. Not a gifted athlete, but a guy who comes to play hard in games.
2006 outlook: With Braylon Edwards questionable to be ready for the start of the season (Edwards tore his ACL in early December 2005) Wilson stands a chance to actually be a starting WR for the Browns at the beginning of 2006. His competition is Dennis Northcutt and Frisman Jackson, and neither inspires confidence as a starter. However, even as a starter for Cleveland, Wilson isn’t likely to put up big numbers with second year QB Charlie Frye in what will likely be a conservative offense. When Edwards does get medical clearance to return, Wilson would at best be the teams #3 WR.
Beyond 2006: The idea is for Edwards and Wilson to be the Browns #1 and #2 guys for years to come. If Frye develops into a stats monster, Wilson has a good chance to be a fantasy football starter as a #2 WR down the road.

Derek Hagan, Round 3, Miami Dolphins: Hagan has good size and strength and runs disciplined routes, but doesn’t show a willingness to go over the middle or fight for the ball. More quick than fast, Hagan can make the acrobatic catch, but will also drop the easy ones.
2006 outlook: Will compete with Wes Welker for the #3 WR job in Miami. The Dolphins offensive identity is a bit of a mystery, but even in the best case scenario Hagan’s fantasy football projections don’t warrant more than a late round gamble in a deep fantasy football draft.
Beyond 2006: Hagan is hoped to eventually replace Marty Booker in the starting lineup opposite Chris Chambers. Hagan has the necessary tools to be a good complimentary, possession style WR in the NFL. However, those types of WR’s don’t usually place high on fantasy football rankings. There’s a chance that the Dolphins could turn out to be more of a throwing team under Daunte Culpepper though and if that happens, Hagan has a chance to turn out to be a decent fantasy football starter as a #2 WR in the future.

Brandon Williams, Round 3, San Francisco 49ers: Williams is a small WR who plays tough. Not very fast, Williams has sure hands and is elusive in the open field. Has experience as punt returner and could fill a dual purpose as a #3 WR and return man in the NFL.
2006 outlook: The 49ers definitely need some guys to step up in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th WR positions and Williams will battle for one of those spots. However, it’s extremely unlikely Williams will make it onto any fantasy football player rankings.
Beyond 2006: If he can eventually turn into the 49ers #3 WR, and if he can prove to be a good punt return specialist, Williams may have value in fantasy football leagues that give you points for those return yards. But when you’re drafting in a dynasty or keeper style league, you’re usually looking for a guy who will eventually be a fantasy football starter and not just one of many guys you could get on the waiver wire. And that’s exactly what Williams will likely be.

Maurice Stovall, Round 3, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: With exceptional size and decent speed, Stovall is a strong WR who really improved as a senior after Charlie Weis took over at Notre Dame. Despite being big, shies away from going over the middle and isn’t as strong as you’d expect. Drops some passes, but can also go up and get some tough ones with good leaping ability.
2006 outlook: Measuring taller than 6’4”, Stovall’s most immediate impact could be as a red zone threat. Will battle with a bunch of other WR’s on the roster in Tampa for one of the 2 remaining WR spots after Joey Galloway, Michael Clayton, and Ike Hilliard. Stovall’s chances of making a splash on fantasy football rosters in 2006 are very slim.
Beyond 2006: If Stovall can continue to develop like he did between his junior and senior seasons in college, he could have a bright NFL future as a possession style and red zone WR. However, it’s not a given. His size, accomplishments as a senior, and the notoriety of the school he came from likely gets him selected before he realistically should be in dynasty style fantasy football drafts.

Michael Robinson, Round, 4, San Francisco 49ers: A college QB who was drafted as a WR, Robinson has now been told he will be tried at RB for the 49ers. An exceptional athlete, Robinson can be a multiple threat as a passer, runner, or receiver. I probably should list him at RB since that is where he will be tried at first. But because it’s one thing to scramble around as a QB and run through broken protections, and quite another to line up in the backfield, take handoffs, and plow into the line looking for the hole, Robinson may still end up back at WR. Robinson possesses very good size and decent speed.
2006 outlook: We’ll see if he holds up at the RB position. My guess is that he won’t and he’ll end up at WR. I just can’t see him as a 20 carry RB in the NFL and taking the pounding he’s just not used to. His fantasy football projections for 2006 are hard to read and it’s likely he has minimal value as a rookie.
Beyond 2006: I can Robinson developing into a solid 3rd WR in the NFL, and maybe even a team’s #2. But it will take time for him to adjust and it’s a gamble that he ever does. The bust side is obvious. The boom is that he could turn out to be a solid #2 fantasy football starter at WR in a few years.

Brad Smith, Round 4, New York Jets: Another college QB who is projected to be a WR in the NFL, Smith is a playmaker. While a mediocre QB prospect, Smith has the size, speed, and athleticism to make the conversion to WR. Very hard worker and competitive, Smith may take some time to develop and find the right position.
2006 outlook: This will be a learning season for Smith and it’s doubtful he contributes anything in any fantasy football leagues.
Beyond 2006: Smith put up some outlandish rushing totals in college and if he fails to make it as a WR, the team may try to bulk him up and play him at RB. If not, he may be athletic enough to make the switch to DB. All this is nice for the Jets, but for provides little in terms of fantasy football help to us. There’s a lot of upside with Smith, but it will likely take a couple of years for him to find his true calling in the NFL.

Cory Rodgers, Round 4, Green Bay Packers: Doesn’t possess the best measurables for WR in the NFL. Rodgers isn’t very strong or polished as a WR, but is developmental project whose most immediate impact will be felt as a return specialist on both punts and kickoffs.
2006 outlook: Will compete for a job as a return specialist. That’s the only way he’ll have any fantasy football value as he is not ready to be an NFL WR.
Beyond 2006: Can’t say I expect he’ll ever be more than a bench WR in the NFL. Even then, he’ll only be that if he excels as a return specialist. His value in terms of fantasy football help in the future will only be those fantasy football leagues that give points for return yardage.

Jason Avant, Round 4, Philadelphia Eagles: While possessing decent enough size, Avant is not fast nor is he explosive as a WR. However he will go over the middle and fight to make the catch. His biggest assets are his reliable hands and route running.
2006 outlook: Will compete with a slew of mediocre veteran WR’s and another rookie for one of 4 open spots in Philadelphia’s WR corps. While he probably captures one, his impact for fantasy football purposes is minimal.
Beyond 2006: Avant could end up being a solid possession style WR in the NFL. He won’t make many big plays, but he’ll make some tough ones. Unfortunately that doesn’t translate into a lot of hope as a future fantasy football starter. May turn out to be a decent bench player.

Demetrius Williams, Round 4, Baltimore Ravens: A lean WR at 6’1 and 184 lbs, Williams has deceptive speed and has been used a lot to stretch opposing defenses in college. While possessing terrific hands, Williams doesn’t run good routes nor is he elusive after the catch. Maturity is a concern as he has tended to disappear in games where he doesn’t get involved early.
2006 outlook: In WR starved Baltimore, Williams gets a chance to immediately compete for the #3 WR spot behind starters Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. His main competition is the erratic Clarence Moore and unproven Devard Darling. Even if he wins the job, it’s overly optimistic to expect much from Williams as a rookie.
Beyond 2006: The Ravens really like Williams and think he can be an eventual starter. If he takes to their coaching and develops, they may be right and Williams becomes someone who deserves a spot on fantasy football rosters. For dynasty style fantasy football leagues, Williams has a chance to be a sleeper in a few years.

Will Blackmon, Round 4, Green Bay Packers: Blackmon played CB his first three years in college before making the switch to WR as a senior in 2005. The Packers are projecting him at DB instead of WR, but at least they have a dual threat if they wanted to use him that way.
2006 outlook: The only thing known for sure about Blackmon’s game is that he is an excellent return specialist. Will compete with fellow 4th round pick Cory Rodgers for that job as a rookie while he develops into a position (most likely CB).
Beyond 2006: Unless he switches back to WR, and even then he wasn’t explosive as one the one year he played the position, Blackmon has almost no value in fantasy football.

Brandon Marshall, Round 4, Denver Broncos: A big WR who if he gets much bigger might make the switch to TE. Marshall doesn’t have great speed, but he is athletic, tough, and strong. Needs to make sure he keeps his head in the game as he tends to take plays off.
2006 outlook: Will battle for a roster spot as 4th or 5th WR. No fantasy value.
Beyond 2006: If Marshall added about 20 lbs, he’d be a legitimate candidate for the position switch to TE. He doesn’t possess enough speed to be a real threat as a WR, but would be considered fast at the TE position. His long term fantasy prognosis is much better at that position than at WR.

Skyler Green, Round 4, Dallas Cowboys: Short and bulky, Green has adequate speed as a potential slot WR. Has never been a full time starter at WR in his career and his best attribute is his skill as a return specialist.
2006 outlook: Will compete for a roster spot on a Cowboys WR squad that is thin at depth. Will also compete for return duties.
Beyond 2006: There’s a really slim chance Green turns out to be an okay #3 WR in the slot, but he will never be an outside WR who makes a lot of noise on fantasy football cheat sheets. His value will almost strictly come in leagues where you get points for return yards.

Domenik Hixon, Round 4, Denver Broncos: Tall and thin, Hixon lacks speed and power. Played Safety the first two years in college before making the switch to WR in 2004. As a result, he’s not refined in his route running, and is still developing at the position. Despite not being that strong, he is fearless going over the middle and will fight for the ball. Hixon also has experience returning punts and kickoffs.
2006 outlook: Like with fellow Broncos 4th round draft pick Brandon Marshall, Hixon will battle for the 4th or 5th WR spot. He’ll also compete for return duties.
Beyond 2006: If he continues to develop his skills at the WR position, Hixon may turn out to be a surprise in a few years. Guys willing to be aggressive and go over the middle are always given chances. But for fantasy football purposes, Hixon is unlikely to make any fantasy football news in the future.

Marques Hagans, Round 5, St. Louis Rams: A QB in college, Hagans is simply too short (5’9”) to play the position in the pros. His athleticism though is good enough to get him a look at WR and maybe on special teams.
2006 outlook: Will battle for the 5th WR spot on the Rams. Little to no fantasy football impact.
Beyond 2006: May eventually develop into a 3rd WR, but realistically his chances are slim of ever being even a decent fantasy football WR.

Jeremy Bloom, Round 5, Philadelphia Eagles: Bloom hasn’t played football in two years preferring to concentrate on being an Olympic skier. Is a great athlete, but was never a top flight college WR and projects more as a return specialist more than anything else.
2006 outlook: Will compete for return duties in Philadelphia.
Beyond 2006: Bloom’s only value will come in fantasy football leagues where you get points for return yards as he can return both kicks and punts. But he has to prove he’s committed to playing football for that to have a chance.

Mike Hass, Round 6, New Orleans Saints: Hass has decent size and okay speed. His best attribute is competitiveness, leading to his having a penchant for making big plays at the right time. Very productive WR in college and could turn into a dependable possession style WR in the NFL.
2006 outlook: Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth are entrenched as the 1 and 2 WR’s in New Orleans, leaving Hass to compete with a bunch of okay veterans and another rookie (Marques Colston) for 1 of the 3 remaining WR spots on the team. Even if he beats out one of these guys, it’s unlikely Hass has any immediate value in fantasy football leagues.
Beyond 2006: Not likely to ever be a big time fantasy football starter, Hass could eventually turn out to be a good bench WR.

Jonathan Orr, Round 6, Tennessee Titans: Tall and fast, Orr’s best season came as freshman back in 2002. Seemed to lose concentration as a sophomore and junior and started only 1 game in ’03 and ’04 before bouncing back with a good season and 12 starts as a senior. If he applies himself, he could be a surprise in the NFL.
2006 outlook: Few teams are as crowded with question marks at WR than the Titans. There are a lot of bodies there, and some decent talent for Orr to compete against to get a roster spot. But unless he both makes the final roster, and the Titans suffer another rash of injuries at the position, Orr’s value in 2006 is nil.
Beyond 2006: Tennessee seems to be set with Drew Bennett and David Givens as starters for the next few seasons, so unless Orr really surprises, or gets a chance with another team, his long term value is suspect.

Delanie Walker, Round 6, San Francisco 49ers: Big and physical for a WR, Walker’s best trait is a fearlessness going over the middle and catching the ball in a crowd. Unfortunately, his hands are suspect and he needs refinement in his route running.
2006 outlook: The 49ers are converting Walker to FB in the NFL because of his size and toughness. Actually a pretty smart move on their part as it gives Walker a great chance to make the team and with his skills, allows him to do more than a conventional FB would usually do. But he’s not likely to have more than a minimal value for fantasy football purposes.
Beyond 2006: Unless Walker develops into a legitimate running threat, he probably won’t ever be more than a free agent filler in fantasy football leagues.

Adam Jennings, Round 6, Atlanta Falcons: Too small to be a starting WR in the NFL, Jennings is an accomplished return specialist and has tremendous speed. Catches the ball well, but has never been more than a part time starter in college.
2006 outlook: Has an excellent chance to be the Falcons 5th WR and also be their punt and kick return specialist.
Beyond 2006: Could eventually turn into a good #3 WR in the NFL but his primary value will come from his return yards.

Jeff Webb, Round 6, Kansas City Chiefs: Good sized WR with decent speed who’s been very productive in college. Webb is extremely confident and shows good skills for taking his game to the next level. His ego could get him trouble if he’s perceived as having an attitude problem.
2006 outlook: With a myriad of mediocrity at the position in Kansas City, Webb has a decent chance to make the active roster if he keeps his ego in check. Little fantasy football though.
Beyond 2006: Few teams cry out more in need of a great WR than the Chiefs. Webb, if his head stays on straight, could be a great sleeper candidate in a couple of years in fantasy football rankings. Boom or bust type of guy.

Ethan Kilmer, Round 7, Cincinnati Bengals: Kilmer possesses good size and strength. Never a factor at WR in college, Kilmer’s best attribute is as a special teams ace.
2006 outlook: With so many WR’s already in Cincinnati, Kilmer might be in a for a position switch to DB. If he makes the team, it’ll only be because of his special teams capabilities, and not those of a return specialist. Fantasy football projections are zero for Kilmer.
Beyond 2006: It would take a lot for me to even think of Kilmer as someone who will ever crack any fantasy football player rankings even years down the line.

Todd Watkins, Round 7, Arizona Cardinals: A former JUCO transfer, Watkins has been productive his 2 years at BYU. A tall WR with great speed, Watkins can make big plays, but has also shown signs of laziness in his route running and drops passes he should catch. Not physical and needs to add some bulk if he is to ever be more than a deep threat on the outside.
2006 outlook: Will compete for the 5th WR spot in Arizona but is more likely a practice squad candidate if not claimed by another team. He might have a better chance at making the active roster on another team.
Beyond 2006: If he works hard on concentration and sharpening his skills, Watkins has a legitimate chance to be a sleeper in fantasy football leagues in a couple of years.

Bennie Brazell, Round 7, Cincinnati Bengals: A track star making the transition to WR in the NFL, Brazell is a developmental project getting a look because of his great speed, height, and leaping ability. Unproven as a pass catcher and very thin, Brazell needs a lot of time and coaching.
2006 outlook: Practice squad candidate at best. Is simply too raw to be on an active roster.
Beyond 2006: Intriguing prospect if he commits fully to gaining some weight and learning the skills of route running and body adjustment an NFL WR must have. Brazell is a long shot, as few track stars really have toughness to take the pounding an NFL player takes.

Devin Aromashodu, Round 7, Miami Dolphins: Decent sized WR with good speed, Aromashodu needs to display some toughness as he shies away from contact. Has big play capability, but also drops a lot of passes he should catch.
2006 outlook: Will compete for the 5th WR spot in Miami, but more likely a practice squad candidate.
Beyond 2006: If he develops consistency catching the ball and becomes willing to be more than a vertical threat, Aromashodu has the skills necessary to become a decent NFL WR. For fantasy football purposes though, he’s a long shot to ever be on a fantasy football cheat sheet.

Ben Obomano, Round 7, Seattle Seahawks: Obomano has okay size but not much speed, and is not a big play WR. Not a downfield threat at all and while tough going over the middle, and a solid route runner, tends to body catch passes more than with his hands.
2006 outlook: Bleak. In Seattle? Bleak.
Beyond 2006: Not likely to ever be more than a clone of Rams veteran WR Dane Looker. If you’re saying “who’s Dane Looker?” you’ve answered the question about Obomano’s long term prospects in fantasy football leagues.

David Anderson, Round 7, Houston Texans: Very productive college WR who is small, and not very physical. Anderson also lacks the speed desirable in a prospective future starter in the NFL.
2006 outlook: Will compete for the 3rd, 4th, or 5th WR spot in Houston. Unless he shows enough in preseason to win the 3rd WR spot (and because of his size, he could end up being a nice slot WR with Andre Johnson and Eric Moulds on the outside) Anderson will have little fantasy football value in 2006.
Beyond 2006: The Texans have 2 very good starters at WR right now, but little quality depth. Anderson may never be a fantasy football starter, but he could end up being a decent guy to have the bench in a couple of years.

Marques Colston, Round 7, New Orleans Saints: King sized WR (6’4 ½”, 224 lbs) with decent speed. His size and leaping ability make him tough to defend. Good hands and good potential for the NFL.
2006 outlook: Would really have to shine in preseason to have a chance in New Orleans. But the good news is that the Saints took 2 WR’s in this draft, meaning they’re interested in upgrading the position.
Beyond 2006: With work and patience, Colston might actually make a good #2 WR in the NFL. At the very least, his size should give him a chance to be a red zone target when he’s on the field. A better fantasy football and NFL prospect than many guys drafted higher.

Kevin McMahan, Round 7, Oakland Raiders: Decent sized WR who isn’t very fast or tough. Has experience returning kicks and has sure hands.
2006 outlook: Every year, I have to ask it: “When was the last time the last pick in the NFL draft ever made an impact either in the NFL or fantasy football?” And every year, the answer is the same: “I can’t remember”.
Beyond 2006: With a lot of luck, he may end up being a special teams ace or returner and a 4th or 5th WR. But I won’t be holding my breath.

See more rookie predictions below:

• Fantasy Football Quarterback Advice
• Fantasy Football Running Back Advice
• Fantasy Football Tight End Advice
• Fantasy Football Kicker Advice
  

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