Fantasy Football Starters

"Down-Set-Hike Fantasy Football Forum"™

Sound Off about Fantasy Football Starters and Fantasy in General!

Save This Page	Back to Forum Main
	Topic: Larry Johnson: Fantasy Football Sleeper or Bust in 2008?
Russell_108 Admin Membership: Starter Joined: September 04 Total Posts: 6729 Favorite Team: Offline	Post Date: 07/17/08 13:53 In a recent post on our fantasy football message board it was questioned why Larry Johnson was placed so highly in our fantasy football rankings for the 2008 season. Our Draft Analyzer web based fantasy football tool has LJ as a solid RB1 this season while so many others are very cautious with him propping him as potentially only a borderline RB2/3. Well, I'll tell you what, if you can get LJ that late in a draft that's SOLID value. But I won't hesitate to take him in the second round of most drafts. Let's look at the last 2 seasons for Larry Johnson. But in reality, LJ was a top 3 fantasy RB in 2006. 2007: Hard to argue that LJ was a bust in 2007, but why was he a bust? A contract holdout that lasted until the 3rd week of preseason prevented him from being in the top football shape he should have been in for the start of the regular season. In his first 5 games, LJ was a monumental disappointment rushing for only 275 yards and scoring zero TD's. The entire KC offense was struggling scoring only 63 points in those 5 games and the passing attack was anemic as well. But in the next 3 games LJ got back on track rushing for 284 yards and scoring 4 TD's. Unfortunately, we didn't get a chance to see if LJ was really getting back to being a great fantasy RB as he suffered a foot injury in the 4th quarter of the Chiefs 8th game and missed the rest of the season. Same OL and passing attack in those last 3 games as in the first 5. This all leads me to think that it is more likely that LJ was finally getting back into top shape after missing all of training camp and the first 3 weeks of the preseason. Reports were that LJ is back to 100% and had no trouble running, cutting, or practicing in the OTA's. He is healthy for training camp and that should lead to a bounce back type of season for him in 2008. Sure, the Chiefs have major questions about their OL and passing attack, but can they really be any worse than last season? I'm not saying you draft LJ in the first round right now as you need to pay attention to his ADP (average draft position) to gauge where his perceived value is in fantasy drafts. What I am saying is that by paying attention to that, you'll be ready to make a shrewd pick when the value presents itself. ---- On any given Sunday any fantasy team can beat another, only to still lose Monday night.
James_4852 Membership: Starter Joined: August 05 Total Posts: 681 Favorite Team: Online	Post Date: 07/17/08 16:32 Good points Russ. I would like to add that their defense is a mess too. And that the Chiefs will have to throw to get back into games which takes away more points for LJ. If Croyle is the QB, I forsee 8 man fronts blitzing the Chiefs to death. We will have to see. Everyone has been warned though! James ---- Full time Ghostbuster!
Robert_9600 Moderator Membership: Starter Joined: September 06 Total Posts: 774 Favorite Team: Offline	Post Date: 07/17/08 16:36 I really think LJ is past going in the first round at this point, a poor offensive line and a inexperienced QB means in the box making Croyle throw to win. LJ was a bust last year, this year, he may be helathy, but just on a bad team. Some will grab him in the first round, I won't there's still to much talent out there even if you grab a Randy Moss or a Reggie Wayne and come back and get him or another quality back in the 2nd round, at least make your firstround pick count. ---- We'll moida da bums
Lombardi Army_6807 Membership: Starter Joined: September 05 Total Posts: 529 Favorite Team: Offline	Post Date: 07/17/08 22:30 Thanks for sharing your opinion on LJ. In some mock drafts I've done he was still there in round 3! People are taking the QB's and WR's early this year causing some talented RB's to drop into the 3rd round
James_4852 Membership: Starter Joined: August 05 Total Posts: 681 Favorite Team: Online	Post Date: 07/17/08 23:12 I wonder if it's because there is a deeper pool of Rb's this year and more teams running with split time between two backs. James ---- Full time Ghostbuster!
dana_8141 Admin Membership: Retired Joined: June 06 Total Posts: 1137 Favorite Team: Offline	Post Date: 07/18/08 06:39 James, I think what is happening here are people seeing a change in scoring trends. I have compiled into a .xls file ,total fantasy points 'standard scoring' of the top 20 players at each the QB,RB,WR for the last four years and converted into a graph the result showed a significant decrease in RB production in 2007 high points under 250 but QB production showed tops in 2007- 2005 show to be the most productive year for RB- Though WR's show a minuscule increase, they have been the most consistant over a 4yr span Of course this is easier looked at then explained. but with all the RBBC's and always hearing how the NFL is a copy-cat-league perhaps now Teams are going by way of Passing? We'll see what happens this year-See if 2008 stats match-up w/ 2007
Thomas _5045 Membership: Starter Joined: August 05 Total Posts: 77 Favorite Team: Offline	Post Date: 07/22/08 23:58 The expectations on Johnson in 2006 were too great, but he was a great #1 fantasy RB that year anyway. Second in rushing yards and TD's, his great season was lost on fantasy players because of Tomlinson's record setting season. I give Johnson a pass for 2007 because the Chiefs should never have tried to avoid paying him the money he deserved from the start. In 2008 I expect him to be a top 5 runner even if Croyle isn't any better than I saw last year. ---- All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I'm FINE!
Viewing posts(1-7)
Post	Plain text ONLY, no HTML avoid > and < in text
Message

“Dear FF Starters - I just wanted to touch base and let you know that you all helped me reach the Super Bowl in BOTH of my leagues”.

Just an update....I am 2 for 2 in Fantasy Super Bowls this year! I won again last weekend!!!! Thanks for the help! Michelle, 2007 Member

I used your product in 6 of my 11 leagues. I won 2 championships and my winning percentage was 64.3%. Thanks for the good year. Charles, 2007 Member

“BECAUSE OF THIS SITE I WON 1 LEAGUE AND FINISHED "IN THE MONEY" IN ANOTHER!!!!!!!! THANK YOU!” Brett, 2007 Member

Gentleman,

"We" did it again, a 3peat in winning a league championship!!”. Mark, 2007 Member

“This is without question the best site for all around info I've ever used!”

Michael, 3 year member 4 Championships!