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Tips from the Red Zone

Extra Points: Tips from the Red Zone by Russ Bliss

Welcome to “Extra Points” -- where radio host and gridiron guru Russ Bliss shares his latest thoughts on what’s hot, who’s not and other breaking news and analysis that impacts the world of NFL fantasy football. Although this is Russ’s “blog,” we encourage users to interact with Russ by posting your own responses below. Agree or disagree, we want to hear from you! And don't forget to check out Russ's weekly fantasy football podcast and other audio programming, including three local and national fantasy football radio shows.

06/28/08 08:22		Ernest Graham in Jeopardy of Not Starting? Don't Buy It.
Fantasy Football Tips	So the latest rumor coming out of Tampa is that Jon Gruden is thinking that Warrick Dunn could be the starter over Ernest Graham? Fantasy football cheat sheets could be in for a topsy-turvy ride for a while because of this one, but I'm not biting. I'm sure by the time we're all using our fantasy football rankings at the running back position we'll be thinking Graham a lot more than Dunn. We are always hearing rumors like this at this time of year. So why do I find this rumor to have little merit? Well, right now, after a solid 2007 season, Graham is severely underpaid and is in negotiations with the team for a new deal. Graham skipped the voluntary OTA's and there may be a chance he could choose to hold out of training camp if a new contract isn't in place by then. Gruden is using Dunn as a public bargaining chip while the two sides work out a deal. Let's look at the facts. Fact 1: Despite all the glowing reports that Carnell (no longer Cadillac to me) Williams is healing faster from a torn patellar tendon injury suffered last season than expected, it is extremely doubtful Williams will be ready for the start of the season. He will likely start the season on the physically unable to perform list and will miss at least the first half of the 2008 season. He might not even be ready to return then. The injury was originally thought to be potentially career ending, and until he gets back onto the field, it still could be. Williams is out of the picture in 2008 to me. Fact 2: In the 9 meaningful games Graham started in 2007 (week 16 doesn't qualify since the starters sat after halftime) he had 177 rushing attempts for 730 yards, caught 43 passes for 321 yards, scored 7 TD's, and had zero fumbles. Averaged out for 16 games, those numbers translate into 315 rushing attempts for 1,298 yards, 76 receptions for 571 yards, and 12 TD's. To put that into comparison with the final 2007 stats for all RB's, Graham would have ranked 6th in rushing yards, 2nd in both receptions and receiving yards, 3rd in total yards, and tied for 4th in TD's scored. Those are stud RB numbers in any fantasy football league. Now some may be concerned that Graham is 28 years old, but considering that he had a total of 52 carries in his career before last season, and there's good reason to believe Graham is not worn down like some RB's are at 28. Fact 3: You want an aging RB who is wearing down? Let's look at the 33 year old Warrick Dunn. Once upon a time, Dunn was a pretty decent #2 fantasy RB. Never much of a TD scorer, Dunn at least used to put up good yardage numbers. But last season he was awful. 720 rushing yards, 238 receiving yards, an abysmal 3.2 yards per carry average, and this all in 16 games played and 15 starts. Some of Dunn's struggles can be blamed on the pitiful QB and coaching situation last season in Atlanta, but it certainly doesn't bode well for him that he's another year older, or that he's never really been a feature RB at any point in his career. The breakaway speed that Graham lacks is also gone from Dunn's game. Could Dunn steal 6-10 carries per game from Graham? Sure he could. Bottom line is that while Dunn will probably be given chances at the start of the season to get more carries, once it becomes clear that Graham is producing at a higher level with stronger running and better pass catching ability, Dunn will be consigned to a small role. Gruden can "coach speak" all he likes right now, but facts are facts. And while some may bump Graham down in the fantasy football rankings, I'm not about to be one of them
	( 4 Comments )
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