Word to the Winners: Fantasy Football Advice from the Experts

Following is some hot-off-the-press advice on this season's rookie tight ends from Russ Bliss, fantasy football expert who hosts "The Red Zone" on KDUS-AM Sports radio.

Tight Ends

Hope you’re not counting on finding an immediate starting fantasy TE from this year’s rookie class. There are only 2 players in this years draft class that have a chance to make any impact at all as rookies (Heath Miller and Alex Smith). It should be no surprise they were the first two taken. Even then, there are better veteran starting options for 2005 fantasy purposes than anyone listed here. Miller and Smith have the ability to become good fantasy TEs in dynasty leagues, but neither is really special. Kevin Everett is the only other one who could develop in time.

2005 impact ranking:

1. Heath Miller
2. Alex Smith

None of the rest are worth listing here.

Dynasty Values:

1. Heath Miller
2. Alex Smith
3. Kevin Everett
4. Jerome Collins
5. Bo Scaife
6. Billy Bajema
7. Joel Dreessen
8. Madison Hedgecock
9. Patrick Estes
10. Tony Jackson
11. Andy Stokes

Comments (in order drafted):

Heath Miller, Round 1, Pittsburgh Steelers: Miller offers up the most complete package of pass catching skills and blocking ability in this year’s draft class. At 6’5”, 256 lbs, Miller presents a big target with good hands and is the consensus #1 TE in this year’s very mediocre TE draft class.
2005 outlook: Probably steps in as a starter right away providing he fully recovers from a hernia injury by training camp. The Steelers haven’t thrown a lot to the their tight ends since Eric Green was with the team, but with Plaxico Burress gone, it could be that Miller’s big size gets the attention of Ben Roethlisberger more often. Considering that the Steelers are a run oriented offense, Miller shouldn’t be considered a starting fantasy TE out of the gate. But as a backup, he has a high upside.
Beyond 2005: While unlikely to become another Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates, Miller should be a productive TE in leagues that require one and could become a favorite red zone target quickly in the Steelers passing game.

Alex Smith, Round 3, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Smith has comparable size to Heath Miller (6’4”, 258 lbs) but isn’t as skilled a blocker. Known for his superior pass catching abilities, it seems a good bet Smith will be used as the pass catching tight end the Bucs offense has wanted for a few years.
2005 outlook: The Bucs also signed free agent Anthony Becht from the Jets and he will be the starter. But Becht has never turned into the playmaking TE he was envisioned as becoming when he entered the pros. Smith will be the understudy, and likely won’t have a lot of value this season.
Beyond 2005: Becht signed a 5 year deal, so he will be there in Tampa for at least a couple of seasons. But since he’s never caught for more than 356 yards in any of his 5 NFL seasons, it’s a fair assumption that he won’t become a primary target in the passing game. If the Bucs thought he could, they wouldn’t have drafted Smith. Smith may take a year or two to develop into a decent starting fantasy TE, but it should happen.

Kevin Everett, Round 3, Buffalo Bills: A little smaller than Miller and Smith (Everett is 6’4”, 241 lbs), Everett was considered a solid prospect for the pro level, if he could get over the inconsistencies in his game. Everett only started one season in college and needs time to round out his game both as a pass catcher and as a blocker.
2005 outlook: Tore his ACL in an early mini camp and although it’s possible he could return late this season, it’s not likely he’d make any impact at all since he would have missed all of training camp. Look elsewhere if your league redrafts every year.
Beyond 2005: The Bills have depth at TE (Mark Campbell, Tim Euhus, and Ryan Neufeld) but each one suffered injuries last year. Euhus is the only one with the upside Everett brings to the table though. It could be that Everett wins the job, or it could be that he never develops. Overall, it’s very questionable if he’ll become a good starting fantasy TE even in a few years.

Jerome Collins, Round 5, St. Louis Rams: A former linebacker turned tight end, Collins is a project with great size (6’4”, 267 lbs). But with his limited experience at the position, he needs time develop his skills at the position. Better athlete than football player.
2005 outlook: Not even a blip on the radar for fantasy football. The Rams have underachieving pass catching TE Brandon Manumaleuna and blocker Roland Williams in front of him, plus another rookie who projects to the tight end position.
Beyond 2005: The Rams try to throw to their tight ends so if Collins can develop his skills, he may be able to supplant the mediocre TEs in front of him. But I’m not counting on it.

Bo Scaife, Round 6, Tennessee Titans: A little undersized at 6’2”, 252 lbs, Scaife’s already had two knee injuries that have cost him seasons in college. Granted, those seasons were in 2000 and 2002, so he has bounced back from them. But since he never laid claim to the full time starting job in college even after returning from those injuries, it’s unlikely Scaife is going to be an impact player.
2005 outlook: The Titans appear to always be on the lookout for another TE and maybe Scaife becomes their #3 guy behind Erron Kinney and Ben Troupe. Fantasy value is non-existent.
Beyond 2005: The Titans use a rotational system with their TEs and that means any of them can develop into having some value. But it’s primarily in a backup capacity for fantasy purposes. IF Scaife sticks with the team, that’s exactly the role he’ll fill.

Tony Jackson, Round 6, Seattle Seahawks: Considered one of the best blocking tight ends and special teams aces in the draft. Jackson was a minimal part of the passing game though (as witnessed by his being the full time starter but only hauling in 7 passes in 2004).
2005 outlook: If he makes the team, he’ll block while others catch passes. If you get points for blocking, this could be the steal of your fantasy draft. Otherwise, look elsewhere.
Beyond 2005: He’ll block some more. His college career 14 receptions tell you everything you need to know about his fantasy prospects in the future.

Joel Dreessen, Round 6, New York Jets: Good size (6’4”, 260 lbs), 4 year starter in college, but there’s nothing special about his game. Was never overly productive in college, and isn’t consistent as a blocker. His big plus comes from being an efficient long snapper.
2005 outlook: Camp body and maybe 3^rd TE behind Doug Jolley and Chris Baker if he becomes the long snapper. No fantasy value at all.
Beyond 2005: May eventually be able to develop into a decent starting NFL TE, but the lack of special skills make him at best another in a long line of mediocre TE options for fantasy football in the years to come.

Patrick Estes, Round 7, San Francisco 49ers: Mammoth sized tight end who stands 6’6” and weighs 280 lbs. Caught 6 passes in 2004. Add in his plodding 40 time of 5.11 and you can see that he’s just an additional blocker on the line.
2005 outlook: The 49ers took two TEs (back to back) in the 7^th round. Estes is the definition of a blocking TE and has the advantage in that capacity while Billy Bajema is the better pass catcher. Fantasy value is non-existent with Estes.
Beyond 2005: If he can stick in the pro’s the over under on his career TD receptions is 3. And rest assured those 3 come from bunch formations at the 1 yard line off a play fake.

Billy Bajema, Round 7, San Francisco 49ers: Good sized (6’4”, 265 lbs), and hard working, Bajema has all the qualities of a #2 tight end on a team. He catches the ball okay, and does an okay job of blocking. Lacks the skills to become a solid starting TE in the pros and it doesn’t help that the 49ers already have a premiere pass catching TE in Eric Johnson.
2005 outlook: Maybe a practice squad player. Maybe he makes the team. Maybe he gets cut. For fantasy purposes, he will have no value.
Beyond 2005: Lacking any of the special skills necessary to become a solid starting NFL tight end, it’s extremely unlikely he becomes a solid starting fantasy tight end either.

Madison Hedgecock, Round 7, St. Louis Rams: Projected as a tight end or H-back in the pros, Hedgecock has played both fullback and defensive end in college. Nice size (6’3, 266 lbs) and decent blocker, Hedgecock offers limited upside for fantasy football.
2005 outlook: Will compete with another rookie (Jerome Collins) for the #3 TE spot, or could be a backup fullback. These two positions on an NFL team don’t usually lead to any fantasy value though.
Beyond 2005: Although has shown versatility in college, Hedgecock isn’t as athletic as you’d expect and that makes his potential down the road nil.

Andy Stokes, Round 7, New England Patriots: The last pick in the draft, Stokes played at a small school (William Penn) and although had a decent season last year (42 receptions, 753 ards, and 5 TD’s), you have to take into consideration the competition he faced. Good size and speed (6’4”, 257 lbs; 4.72 in the 40), Stokes faces the ultimate uphill battle: name me the last time the last player selected in the NFL draft made any impact at any position.
2005 outlook: Are you kidding me? Dan Graham, Ben Watson, and Christian Fauria are on the Patriots.
Beyond 2005: Psychology major in college will come in handy.

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